A big churning is taking place in politics as voters have started having high expectations which the political parties find difficult to meet, sometimes
GB Reddy
Indian democracy is caught on the crossroads.Gujarat elections are over. Karnataka in next in line. None of the political parties and their leaders can sit back and relax to enjoy power, perks and privileges of elected representatives. If they fail to positively respond to aspirations of the electorate, they will meet their doom. So, what course Indian politics would traverse by 2019 is a “Himalayan Challenge” to predict. Let me recount some of the notable reflections concerning Indian democracy.
De facto, social chemistry governs electoral outcomes. It is vicious churning in the crucible of so-called “murky or messy democracy” or effervescence is none too easy to follow sitting in AC Chambers in Delhi or in other capital cities.
Next, one week is too long a period in Indian politics. For example, a successful outcome of one major crisis event can alter perceptions and leanings of the electorate like a victory in war or “Ram Temple” construction. People’s
sentiments and emotions are like “shifting sand” in a desert storm. The “Dunes” keep changing forms and shapes with the direction of the flow of wind.
Remember always the proverbial adage “Caste, like Cat, has nine lives” which continues to maintain a stranglehold on the “Hindu” Society. Much as one would like to see the “Hindu Society” overcoming the vertical and horizontal divide, caste will continue to play its vicious role in deciding electoral outcomes. With rural village layout clusters still remaining ‘caste’ based compartmentalisation, caste affiliations and divide will continue to play a dominant role. For example, even the “Madiga” and “Mala” divide or rivalry within the Scheduled Castes in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh continues to persist. Similarly, the recent eruption between the “Adivasis” and the “Lambadas” in Telangana and its politicization cannot be wished away for its political fallout.
Furthermore, religions are at “war” with each other, particularly with steady financial flows, flooding and spurning their activities. More importantly, “Far Right or Ultra” fringe groups are indulging in vicious propaganda to polarize communities on an irreconcilable course. An incident of desecration by vested interest groups can drive an irreparable wedge in the communities.Add to them, the present day urban-rural divide based on “Development” (aspirational mantra) vs. “Caste”, “Communal” and “Class” calculus.
In sum, the combined-cum-cumulative mix or churning vastly differs from “State to State”, “sub-region to sub-region” and even “district to district”. Furthermore, their impact could differ from “national”, “state” and “local“ elections. More importantly, they are also shaped by “situational’ and ‘contextual’ environments. Neither Modi nor Rahul Gandhi (RG) can make a dent either in Tamil Nadu or Andhra Pradesh or Telangana by whatever unholy coalition or electoral patch-ups they may attempt in the run-up to 2019 elections to gain ascendency over the regional political parties and their “Satraps”.
Corruption is recognised as the most heinous national security threat since IK Gujral rule. “Zero Tolerance against corruption” was coined, but no substantive action against the culprits till date except Sashikala. “Law takes its own course” is the common refrain to sideline the issue. It provides an opportunity to all alike even in States to book the culprits.
Rahul faces an uphill task of rebuilding the Congress Party having presided over ‘rooting out of’ strong local leadership to emerge that may pose a challenge to him like Jaganmohan Reddy of the YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh. Furthermore, no longer Rahul Gandhi can adopt the policy of ‘divide and rule’ within the Congress Party based on caste and communal cards. His revival of the party’s future would depend on building a “team”.
Most importantly, the charisma of the “Dynasty” no longer holds sway over the electorate. In the past, it was a common refrain among the “Coterie” of the party, that the ‘Dynasty” blessings or the party symbol are adequate to ensure positive electoral outcomes. Finally, forging opposition unity is not so easy. Naturally, every political party would demand its ‘pound of flesh’ in the allocation of tickets. Of course, the acceptability of Rahul as the Prime Ministerial candidate by all other alliance partners would remain a contentious issue.
In contrast, TINA (There is no alternative) factor may favour Modi and the BJP at the national level as on date. Will it continue until 2019 is a question to ponder over?
But, it does not necessarily mean a ‘cakewalk over’ for Modi and the BJP. Modi needs to deliver on two crucial fronts: farmers and soldiers. Both groups will play a dominant part in electoral outcomes in the “Cow Belt” region – U.P., Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and even Bihar and Gujarat.
Farmers” issues are very well identified particularly “Minimum Support Price (MSP)” bar guaranteeing minimum returns on investments or profit and compensation in case of floods and drought. Just like those white collar job holders enjoying running scale DA increases and pay commissions, it is fair to extend similar facilities to the farmers.
And, the next stage or phase of the agricultural revolution is yet to see the light of the day despite MPs/MLAs/civilian official delegations visiting nations like Spain, Israel, Netherlands and others.
Viewed in the above framework, the question “What next in Indian Politics?” is not easy to forecast. Like each sportsman, today highlights that each point in a game or each match in a series has to be fiercely contested to win, even the final outcome of each round of elections in Indian democracy depends on highly complex situational variables and leadership capabilities.
(The writer is a strategic and political analyst)
