The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the undisputed gainer with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis as the topmost achiever in the Maharashtra Civic and Zilla Parishad (ZP) elections held in February 2017. The charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also been endorsed despite all attempts to negate his various path-breaking decisions. Both BJP and Shiv Sena (SS) have proved their points by contesting separately. But the most important outcome of this election is that the traditional political space and alignments of Maharashtra are going to change forever with both ruling and Opposition space occupied by Hindutva parties
Dilip Chaware in Mumbai
Devidas Deshpande in Pune
“On February 23, we will show what is our worth,” was the taunt given by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis in one of the election rallies in Mumbai. The retort came after its estranged ally Shiv Sena dared it show its worth.
As the State Election Commission declared results for the Local Bodies, ranging from Panchayat Samitis to Municipal Corporations, on February 23, BJP had captured eight of the 10 Municipal Corporation seats on its own and finished a close second to the Shiv Sena in Mumbai. Now, the BJP will run the Municipal Corporations of Pune, Nashik, Pimpri Chinchwad, Solapur, Amaravati, Ulhasnagar, Akola and Nagpur on its own.
In Mumbai, BJP not only grabbed second position, but also increased its vote share by 50 per cent. There it won 82 seats in BMC, just two less than the Shiv Sena. It was more than double gain from its last tally of 31 seats in 2012. A jubilant BJP cadre was soon on the road with the chant of “having shown our worth”. Soon, it emerged that both the parties ended up short of the magic figure of 114 needed to control the civic body but BJP really gave Shiv Sena a run for its money.
That was just only one frame in the political drama that unfolded last week.
Some called it mini-mantralay, while some called it a referendum on the note-ban. For the BJP, it was a litmus test of its strength as it was fighting polls alone after nearly 25 years without the Shiv Sena.
Sensing the impending doom, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), the duo that had ruled the State for 15 years between 1999 and 2014, began frantic efforts to ensure that they remain in a position to mount a challenge to the BJP juggernaut in the 2019 elections in the State. As a first desperate step, they were planning to join hands to grab power in the eight Zila Parishads where they together outnumber the BJP. However, their gamble will largely depend upon the stand taken by the Shiv Sena. At the time of writing this story, the picture was hazy.
Anyway one may look at it, the match was settled in the favour of Bharatiya Janata Party that emerged victorious with flying colours in the elections.The outcome of the polls showed that BJP was not confined to a particular community, region or class and has made significant inroads in practically every section of the society.
While the Congress and NCP State leaders continued their internecine fights till the end, the Shiv Sena went ahead with Uddhav Thackeray’s resolve to go alone. The results have shown that the worst sufferer is the Sena in this round of elections. Except for Thane Municipal Corporation and Ratnagiri ZP, the Sena is not in a position to come to power on its own.
This change in Maharashtra’s political psyche is astounding as since 1952, it was considered a classic model of Congress-system where regional satraps controlling cooperative structures get together under the Congress umbrella to protect their interests. Even when the Shiv
Sena-BJP alliance ruled Maharashtra for four and a half years between 1995 and 1999, it was a minority
government, supported by a clutch of independent MLAs, most of them from the Congress fold. Till the results for the Maharashtra Assembly elections rolled out in October 2014, none would have placed a wager that the BJP would be able, ever, to form its government in the State.
Prime Minister Shri Modi gave another jolt when he selected Devendra Fadnavis to lead the State, not belonging to a dominant caste. The Sena, after initial refusal in October 2014, joined the Fadnavis government. After the smooth functioning for first two years the Sena and the Congress-NCP leadership became jittery due to the speed with which Fadnavis began to work. They were unanimous on halting him in his stride but clueless about the methodology to implement their plans.
The BJP had adopted a two-pronged strategy for the elections. Firstly to consolidate its seat share wherever it was already strong and secondly, where the party was not in a dominant position, invite outsiders, based on their elective merit. It has resulted in a windfall. The BJP was the fourth important party in Maharashtra till 2014. Now it is the largest party in terms of electoral presence.
The BJP aggressively projected the agenda of “transparency and development” as its central slogan. A consistent and sometimes venomous criticism from Shiv Sena, that shared political stage for 25 years with it and currently a partner in the Central and State government, did not distract it. The BJP campaign appeared to be a well-crafted and coordinated one. It contrasted starkly with the Congress leaders who mostly confined themselves to their respective districts, in an attempt to save their constituencies and save the prospects of their kin.
All the Opposition parties together, including the Shiv Sena, have been unable to match the BJP’s score. While the entire non-BJP tally is 634, the BJP alone has won 629 seats. And this impressive achievement is not limited only in Municipal Corporations. In December 2016, the BJP had emerged as the topmost party across the 212 Municipal Councils, winning 1,207 seats against the Congress (919), the NCP (788) and the Shiv Sena (616).
It is to be noted that these elections were held immediately after demonetisation.
The BJP is in an elated mood but its path is not a bed of roses. In fact, it will have to tread most cautiously since the electors will be watching its working more closely hereafter. The imported element in the party will have to be watched carefully. At the same time, the selfless workers who have been toiling for decades will also need to be placated. This is difficult to achieve, but not impossible. The BJP has a distinct hierarchy and culture. It will have to be preserved and promoted if the party wishes to perform well in the future.
In terms of voting pattern in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), it is seen that the Congress and NCP did not fare much worse than the last time. The Congress vote share was down to 15.93 per cent from 16.28 per cent while the NCP’s went down from 5.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent. The MNS was the worst loser, from 15.89 per cent to 7.73 per cent. This shows that its vote bank has been raided by the Shiv Sena and the BJP.
Both saffron parties thus have shown a marked improvement over the 2012 civil polls. The Sena”s vote share grew from 17.34 per cent to 28.29 per cent, the BJP showed a four-fold growth, from 6.78 per cent to
27.28 per cent.
This gain is significant since Maharashtra is the most urbanised State in the country. It is estimated that almost or even more than 50 per cent of its population resides in urban areas. Mumbai, the capital city, has about two crore residents, more than half of them living in slums. Against this socio-economic complexion, the BJP’s victory appears more spectacular as these civic bodies were dominated by the Congress-NCP in the past.
But a worrying factor is that a large number of the BJP’s elected members are former NCP, Shiv Sena or Congress workers, having no experience of operating in a cadre-based party like the BJP. The best example of this phenomenon is in Pune Municipal Corporation. The NCP and the Congress had ruled the PMC for over a decade under the leadership of Suresh Kalmadi and later Ajit Pawar.
In neighbouring Pimpri-Chinchwad, the BJP brought in former NCP strongmen, mostly loyalists of Ajit Pawar. What unfolded in Nashik was more or less similar. The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) was ruling Nashik and its leader Raj Thackeray was hailed as the future leader of the State. How to manage these elements while ruling the corporations will be a real political test for the BJP.
The Maharashtra elections have conclusively shown that the BJP is the State’s principal political party in all its regions. At the same time, the Congress party’s decimation has alarmed its leaders with no credible face available. The NCP stays fully dependent on Sharad Pawar, who is now 77 and will be 80 when the 2019 elections approach.
However, the entire campaigning was marked by the bitter attacks by both the saffron parties. Shiv Sena and BJP left no stone unturned in criticising each other. As SS chief Uddhav Thackeray and Devendra Fadnavis fired salvos on each other, there was no shortage of saner voice. BJP national president Amit Shah said in an interview that he saw this tussle as a friendly match and there was no love lost for Shiv Sena. Fadnavis himself clarified that whatever bitterness he had was confined to replying to the criticism from ‘other side’.
Always focussed on who the real enemy is, CM Fadnavis has explicitly said that BJP would not ally with Congress at any cost. “Whoever wants to go with Congress can go, but BJP won’t say a single word,” he said after the win. The BMC mayoral election to be held on March 9 is going to be crucial in deciding the future Maharashtra politics. As of now, BJP has emerged as the biggest party and CM Devendra Fadnavis as the tallest leader. Whether Shiv Sena will accept this changing political reality is the key question. n
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