State: Not an Easy Battle to Win
Intro: In Bihar, the by-elections are being held in completely changed political circumstances. The ground level political scenario is completely different from the high level leadership alliance.
Forthcoming Assembly by-election polls in the state has more symbol of asserting its supremacy by the parties rather than its effect on state dispensation survival. In India by-polls are more construed as the voters mandate on ruling dispensation. We neither deny it nor accept this argument in toto.
We cannot implement this argument for Bihar in toto. In 2009 just after LS poll Bihar witnesses by-polls on 18 seats. By-polls reflects the voters sentiment more in states having two party system like Gujarat, HP, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh. States havingmulti-party system has no such visible trend. In UP just before 2012 Assembly poll, the Peace Party (PP) headed by Dr Ayub has registered good performance but has highly shocking performance in Assembly poll 2012. It was expected on account of by-poll performance that the PP would have better performance in assembly poll particularly in eastern UP. But only such candidates of the party has won who have their own grip in particular constituency like Akhilesh Singh. The PP won only 4 seats in 2012 UP Assembly poll. There are many instances that the party which has dismal performance in by-poll has improved performance in general Assembly poll.
Laloo Yadav and Nitish Kumar are on a similar platform. Since 1993/94 they are die-hard opponents like Jayalalithaa-Karunanidhi or Mayawati -Mulayam. There is no such politicalrapprochement in Indian politics in recent time or at least since 1990. Shara Paar did not have such bitter relationship with the Gandhi family or the INC to the level of these Bihar politicians. The voters of these two parties are bitter opponents and it is tough for them to cease their attitude.
IN 2009 LS poll Ramvilas Paswan trailed in Rabri Devi's AC Raghopur by margin of 9073 votes in spite of alliance between the RJD and the LJP. The voters of these two parties have different mindset and not able to bury their hatchet. We cannot deny the similar happenings in the forthcoming assembly by-polls too. There is less animosity between the BJP, LJP and RLSP voters which fought polls in alliance in LS poll. The caste wise Yadavs & Kurmis are at loggerheads on their voting pattern in Bihar.
Will they follow their leaders now just after less than 3 months he thy voted against each other in Lok Sabha poll? How will Nitish and Laloo will justify their alliance when they campaigned against each other?
Is Nitish playing a big game within his own party to keep others particularly the CM in control by having alliance with Laloo Yadav? Now if the alliance will lost the by-polls then it will be not only defeat of Nitish but of Laloo too. If the JD(U) will lost by-polls on its own then Nitish Kumar would be main victim.
Now JD(U) is such a party which has more MPs in Rajya sabha than in Lok Sabha. Same was the case with Laloo after 1999 LS poll. Since, Nitish Kumar has nothing to lose politically so in order to share responsibility he forged alliance with other defeated commander Laloo Yadav. As far as NDA in Bihar is concerned it three parties BJP, LJP and RLSP have much at stake. If they failed to perform better then Nitish Kumar will become active and will start touring across the state. Nitish then may engineer Assembly poll sooner than its schedule of December 2015.
The undisputed leader of the Bihar Sushil Modi has also have the assignment of checking the alliance parties within checking so that they will not demand more seats during Assembly polls. Sushil Modi has to face rivalry from Ramvilas Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha than Nitish and Laloo Yadav during Assembly poll. If these two parties will perform well then it would be tough for the BJP to deal with them. So Sushil Modi tries to nip in the bud at earlier stage during the Assembly by-polls.
The issue is who will led the combine of Nitish-Laloo. It will be none from the confidantes of these two but any other party leader. Shakeel Ahmad of the INC may be the dark horse or the consensus of Laloo and Nitish. Since it is certain that their choice will be a minority and may be a Muslim.