Thiruvananthapuram/Kozhikode: As exit poll results for the Keralam Assembly elections emerge, political circles across the state are abuzz with one striking possibility that a potential breakthrough by the BJP-led NDA in a political landscape long dominated by bipolar contestation. While most survey agencies continue to project a comfortable return to power for the UDF, a divergent set of projections has injected uncertainty, and intrigue, into the narrative. At the centre of this debate is a survey by Peoples Insight, which predicts that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA could secure between 10 and 14 seats in the Assembly. If this estimate materialises, it would mark a significant shift in Keralam’s entrenched two-front political system, historically dominated by the Congress-Muslim League-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF).
BJP’s projected rise disrupts Keralam’s bipolar politics
According to the Peoples Insight survey, the NDA’s growing vote share and organisational consolidation, witnessed during the recent Lok Sabha and local body elections, may now translate into tangible gains in the Assembly. The projection of 10 to 14 seats is far above the modest expectations set by other agencies, most of which predict the NDA will remain confined to one to four seats. Such a surge, if realised, would not only elevate the BJP’s legislative presence but also disrupt the arithmetic of Keralam’s traditionally bipolar contests. In several constituencies where triangular contests have emerged, the BJP’s rising vote share is already seen as a decisive factor influencing outcomes. Its presence has impacted both UDF and LDF prospects, particularly in closely fought seats.
Surveys suggest that the LDF, which is seeking to retain power, faces a particularly stiff challenge in constituencies where the NDA has established a stronger foothold. The erosion of margins in such areas could prove critical, even if the BJP does not win outright in many seats. The broader implication is clear that every vote garnered by the NDA may play a spoiler or kingmaker role in determining victories and defeats across constituencies. This evolving dynamic marks a departure from Keralam’s long-standing electoral patterns and signals a potential reconfiguration of political alignments.
Contrasting exit polls still favour UDF sweep
Despite the dramatic projections by Peoples Insight, most major national agencies, including CNN-News18, India Today, Axis My India, and NDTV, present a more conventional picture. Their forecasts largely converge on a decisive victory for the UDF, projecting it to win between 70 and 90 seats in the 140-member Assembly. These agencies also estimate that the LDF’s tally could decline to between 49 and 68 seats, indicating a clear anti-incumbency trend.
However, in stark contrast to Peoples Insight, they continue to predict a marginal presence for the NDA, limiting its gains to fewer than four seats. This divergence has triggered intense political debate. While some analysts view the Peoples Insight numbers as an outlier, others argue that they may be capturing a subtle but significant shift in voter behaviour, particularly among segments previously outside the BJP’s influence in Keralam. If the Peoples Insight projection holds true, it would not merely represent a statistical anomaly but a structural transformation in the state’s political ecosystem.
Muslim League intervenes in Congress’s CM choice, backs V D Satheesan
Amid these projections, leadership discussions within the United Democratic Front (UDF) have also gained momentum, with indications of Muslim League intervention in the Congress Chief Ministerial selection process. Panakkad Sadiqali Shihab Thangal, state president of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), has signalled that public sentiment reflected in exit polls strongly favours V D Satheesan as the Chief Ministerial candidate, a position that gains weight as many Congress leaders are seen to rely on Muslim League support to influence the Congress high command in deciding the post.
Sadiqali Shihab Thangal emphasised that the support for Satheesan is rooted in broader public opinion. “It appears that the sentiment of the people is aligned in his favour,” he noted, adding that the UDF would take decisions by carefully considering this sentiment. At the same time, he reiterated that the final decision on the Chief Minister rests with the Congress high command. However, he expressed confidence that the leadership would respect the ground reality and elevate a leader who commands public trust. “They understand the situation and will take a decision accordingly,” he said.
His remarks clearly signal the IUML leadership’s inclination towards Satheesan in the internal deliberations within the Congress-led alliance. The emphasis on public sentiment, he suggested, would extend beyond leadership selection to broader governance decisions, including cabinet formation and administrative priorities. The IUML, a key constituent of the UDF, contested 27 seats in the election and is optimistic about its performance. According to Sadiqali Thangal, the party expects to win at least 22 of these seats, with the possibility of exceeding exit poll estimates. The consistent projection of a UDF victory across agencies has bolstered confidence within the alliance. “It is not just one agency; everyone is saying the same thing, that the UDF is winning,” he said. Looking ahead, he indicated that discussions regarding ministerial positions for the IUML would follow established precedents. “As in the past, a fair decision will be reached after discussions within the UDF. The League has always received what it deserves, and we expect the same this time as well,” he added.
As the state awaits the counting of votes, the central question remains whether the BJP can translate its projected vote share gains into a meaningful legislative presence. The contrast between Peoples Insight and other agencies has heightened anticipation, with political observers keenly watching whether the NDA can indeed pull off a major upset. Even if the UDF secures the expected victory, the scale of the BJP’s performance could redefine future electoral strategies in Keralam.
