Moscow/New Delhi: Russian oil shipments to India are expected to remain near record levels through April and May, reflecting India’s strategic energy planning and its ability to secure supplies despite global disruptions. Indian refiners have already locked in a significant portion of their crude requirements through alternative, non-sanctioned channels. India, now the second-largest buyer of Russian crude after China and the leading importer of Russia’s flagship Urals grade, continues to prioritise energy affordability and supply security. In March, the country imported a record 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil, nearly double February’s figures, accounting for about 50 per cent of its total crude imports. This trend underscores India’s pragmatic approach to energy sourcing in a volatile global environment.
Recent data indicate that Russian crude arrivals at Indian ports are rising again after a brief disruption. For the week of April 20–27, imports are projected to reach 2.1 million bpd, up from 1.67 million bpd the previous week. The temporary dip earlier in April was largely attributed to export disruptions caused by drone attacks on Russian port infrastructure in late March. However, supplies have since stabilised, and monthly averages are expected to exceed 2 million bpd, with potential for further increases in May.
Strategic buying strengthens India’s energy security
India’s refiners have demonstrated foresight by securing May cargoes well in advance, even before the latest extension of the US waiver to Russia. This proactive procurement strategy has ensured continuity in supply while maintaining competitive pricing. Indian refiners are currently paying premiums of $7 to $9 per barrel over dated Brent for May deliveries, consistent with April pricing, reflecting stable demand and favourable commercial arrangements.
The US waiver to Russia, initially issued in mid-March and recently extended, has played a role in calming global energy markets affected by geopolitical tensions, including conflict dynamics involving Iran. While sanctions on Russia remain in place, the waiver has allowed Russia to continue oil flows through compliant entities, enabling countries to sustain imports without major disruptions.
Further strengthening its energy framework, India has expanded its marine insurance ecosystem by increasing the number of approved Russian insurers from eight to eleven. This move enhances logistical flexibility and ensures smoother port operations for incoming shipments.
Overall, India’s balanced and strategic engagement in global energy markets highlights its growing influence and resilience. By securing reliable and cost-effective crude supplies, the country continues to safeguard its economic stability while navigating complex geopolitical realities with confidence.
