Mr. Tarique Rahman took the oath of office as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh on 17 February, the first male occupant of the office in the last 35 years. His mother late Khaleda Zia became PM of Bangladesh in 1991 and since then power in Bangladesh has stayed in the hands of Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League Party. In the elections held on 12 February, Awami League was banned from contesting and the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) under Tarique Rahman came to power with 2/3rd majority.
It is good for India that the radical Jamaat-e-Islami came a distant second in the Bangladesh elections. But it is worrisome for India that most of the seats won by Jamaat candidates came in the constituencies which border India, mainly opposite West Bengal and Assam. While Mr. Tarique Rahman will have a free hand in shaping the governance and administration in Bangladesh, Jamaat is unlikely to give up its anti-India stance. In the past, these bordering areas have also given shelter to many insurgent and terrorist groups operating in India’s North East. Jamaat is still influential at the grassroots level and India may have to keep its guard against its alliance with Pakistan’s ISI.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken the initiate to congratulate Mr. Tarique Anwar and his BNP. Through this gesture, PM Modi has already initiated the first step to reset Indo-Bangladesh relations, beyond the Sheikh Hasina era of last 15 years. PM Modi is conscious of Sheikh Hasina’s presence in India and her trial under the dubious Mohamed Yunus interim government. Yet in the larger national interest, India may have to urge Sheikh Hasina to desist from giving any anti-government statements. The people of Bangladesh, including the Hindu minority have reposed faith in BNP led government under Mr. Tarique Rahman and he has to be given a fair chance to rebuild Bangladesh.
Before India normalises its relations with Bangladesh, there has to be certain preconditions and visible signs on ground. These steps have mostly to correct the anti-India stance of interim Yunus government in Bangladesh. First and foremost, obviously has to be safety and security of minority Hindus in Bangladesh. The inclusion of one Hindu minister in the new cabinet is a positive sign from the new government. How the new administration in Bangladesh treats unlawful detention of Hindu religious leaders like Chinmaya Prabhu and proceeds against murder/killings of so many Hindus in the last one and half years is going to be important for India. The Hindus in Bangladesh should get equal rights as citizens of Bangladesh and it should be visible to the world.
The second precondition has to be Bangladesh’s relations with Pakistan. The Yunus led government in Bangladesh was in great hurry to make the country East Pakistan again. The way Bangladesh established military relations with Pakistan has been a cause of concern for India. While India does not interfere in the bilateral relations of its neighbours, such ties can not cast a shadow on our security concerns including those in the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The statements emanating from Bangladesh on Seven Sisters and threat to the Siliguri Corridor were most unfortunate. Indian establishment have to seek the clear stand of new government in Bangladesh on such sensitive security issues.
The next prerequisite has to be the stand of Tarique Rahman government on the various existing and proposed treaties with India on water sharing, border management, connectivity projects, trade relations and easy availability of visas on both sides. India may have to be pragmatic here and all the earlier treaties may not receive unequivocal support, as given by Sheikh Hasina government in the past. Here the Indian diplomacy has to deftly understand the sensitivities of the new government and work around the new realities. We Indians have to also understand that unlike Awami League governments in Bangladesh, BNP does not talk much about India’s sterling contribution in the 1971 liberation war with Pakistan, which led to the creation of the nation. Therefore, we may have to talk less about the past and focus more on the future with Bangladesh.
Lastly, India may have to be prepared to assist Bangladesh on the economic front. The interim government leaned heavily towards China and it facilitated our neighbourhood to become a troubled spot for India’s security concerns. Both India and Bangladesh have to realise that their economic integration is essential for their mutual prosperity. Our historical connect can not be wished away through change of regimes. India may have to live with substantive Chinese presence in Bangladesh. But trade with China can not be at the cost of India’s strategic concerns. Chinese have enhanced surveillance in the IOR in the garb of research vessels and thus our maritime relations with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have become a strategic necessity.
As a goodwill gesture, India should permit Bangladeshi cricketers to play in the forthcoming IPL. India should also pitch to compensate the losses incurred by Bangladesh Cricket Board for boycotting the ongoing T-20 Cricket World Championship. Unfortunately, Bangladesh fell into the trap of Pakistan and now must have realised their mistake. The new government in Bangladesh may have an altogether a different approach to sporting relations with India. The initial signals from the new regime in Bangladesh are positive. India now has to proceed with greater amount of tact, back-channel diplomacy, people to people connect and respect for the new realities in our neighbourhood. India should look forward to hosting Mr. Tarique Rahman at the earliest opportunity.
