India is set to transform into a $26 trillion economy by 2047-48, with per capita income expected to exceed $15,000, nearly six times its current level, an Ernst & Young (EY) report has projected. The estimate assumes India maintains a stable yet moderate growth rate averaging around 6 percent annually over the next two decades.
According to the report, India is uniquely positioned to strengthen its role in the global economy, driven by structural reforms, demographic advantages, and sustained investments in technology and digital infrastructure.
EY noted that India has already achieved critical economic scale, currently ranking as the world’s fifth-largest economy. This growth has largely been enabled by economic liberalisation policies that expanded the role of private capital, improved market efficiency, and enhanced India’s global competitiveness.
The report projects that India will overtake Germany and Japan to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030, trailing only the United States and China. Importantly, India’s growth outlook remains the strongest among major global economies over the coming decades.
India’s services sector continues to play a central role in its economic rise. Services exports have grown by 14 percent over the past two decades, reaching $254.5 billion in 2021-22. A significant share of this growth has come from Information Technology (IT) services and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), which together accounted for $157 billion during the same period.
The expansion has been driven by both Indian-headquartered firms and global IT companies, reinforcing India’s position as a global services hub.
Multinational corporations are increasingly leveraging India’s talent pool through Global Capability Centres (GCCs). These centres, which employ more than five million people, have evolved from cost-arbitrage units into hubs of high-end innovation and specialised expertise.
India hosts around 1,500 GCCs, accounting for nearly 45 percent of all such centres globally. EY attributed this dominance to India’s scalable workforce, access to emerging technology skills, and strong adherence to efficient and high-quality business processes.
What began as a cost-driven outsourcing model has now transformed India into what the report terms the “office of the world.” Global corporations increasingly rely on India to deploy technology at scale, spanning advanced digital engineering, product development, and innovation-led services.
The report expects Indian and global IT firms to move further up the value chain, expanding into consulting, experience design, full-stack digital engineering, Industry 4.0 solutions, and advanced business process management.
EY highlighted that most IT services players are setting up centres of excellence in India focused on cloud computing, data analytics, artificial intelligence, and other next-generation technologies. Parallel progress is being made in IP-based platforms and product businesses, which are scalable and differentiated.
These developments are expected to create a strong ecosystem for Indian hyperscalers to emerge over the next two decades, further deepening India’s technology-led growth model.
Beyond IT, the report pointed to significant opportunities in non-IT services as developed economies grapple with ageing populations and skilled labour shortages. Sectors such as education and healthcare are expected to see growing demand, increasingly delivered through digital platforms and cross-border service models.
India’s vast digital footprint has emerged as a major growth enabler. With around 1.2 billion telecom subscribers and 837 million internet users, India has built a strong foundation for a digital-first economy. Sustained government focus on Digital Public Infrastructure has supported the rapid expansion of digital payments, improved governance, and boosted service delivery efficiency.
The report underscored the economic impact of government-backed digital initiatives. Between 2014 and 2019, India’s digital economy grew at an annual rate of 15.6 percent in absolute US dollar terms, which was 2.4 times faster than the overall Indian economy during the same period.
EY concluded that consistent policy support, combined with private sector innovation and demographic strengths, places India on a firm path toward becoming one of the world’s most influential economic powers by its centenary year of independence.
