The Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Army, Asim Munir, recently made some strong statements, casting a profound impact on Indo-Pak relations. Munir has revived the historical divide between the two nations by stoking the Two Nations Theory: “Our religion is different, our customs are different, our traditions are different, our thoughts are different, our ambitions are different — that’s where the foundation of the two-nation theory was laid. We are two nations, we are not one nation.” Munir said in his speech. Most importantly, he further attempted to showcase Pakistan’s obsession with Kashmir by saying “Kashmir is Pakistan’s Juglar Vein” While this bluster from Pakistani Generals is not new, it does assume slight significance considering the heightened security anxiety in the South Asian region.
Generals Playing Madman Card
Pakistan has a long history of having hawkish Generals playing the Madman Card, beginning from Yahya Khan, Zia Ul-Haq, and Pervez Musharraf. These generals have something in common: they all hawkishly played on the Madman theory. This bang and bluster strategy acted as a double-edged sword for Pakistan. Yahya Khan unleashed hell in East Pakistan and ordered the indiscriminate killing of 200 Bengali intellectuals in the Dhaka University massacre, marking the beginning of the Bangladesh genocide in Operation Searchlight. Under the backdrop of Operation Searchlight, Yahya Khan called Sheikh Mujib Rehman a “dictator”, threatening India with dire consequences by saying a” total war with India is very near” in July 1971. Most notably, Yahya Khan, during his meeting with former US President Richard Nixon in June 1971, told Nixon that “Indira Gandhi wants to impose a political government of her choice in East Pakistan” Such politically charged statements, in, the midst of a blustering war situation to ordering pre-emptive air strikes on India codenamed Operation Chengaiz Khan on 3rd December 1971 was perhaps beginning of what can be called as an era of Generals who chose madman theory while dealing with India.
Similarly, the case was with Zia-Ul-Haq, who became the third military ruler of Pakistan after Yahya Khan. Haq was credited with bringing hardcore Islamization and strengthening anti-India rhetoric. Zia-Ul-Haq’s Mandman card began with transcending Bhutto’s thousand years of war to bleed India with a thousand cuts in 1978, within a year of assuming charge of the third military ruler of Pakistan. In 1983, Zia-Ul-Haq charged against India’s firm stance- Pok is an integral part of India by saying that “India has no right to demand Pok”. The most startling moment came when Zia-Ul-Haq threatened India’s former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi during his visit to India in 1987. Haq said, “Mr. Rajiv, you want to invade Pakistan? Ok fine, go ahead! But please remember one thing that after that, people will forget Changez Khan and Hilaku Khan and will remember Zia and Rajiv Gandhi only,” he further said, “Because it will not be a Conventional War. Pakistan may suffer annihilation, but Muslims will still survive because there are several Muslim countries in the world. But remember, there is only one India, and I shall wipe out Hinduism and the Hindu religion from the face of the earth!
Zia-Ul Haq’s bluster came against the backdrop of Operation Brasstacks, a major military exercise by the Indian Army near the Pakistani border in Rajasthan. The operation involved heavy mobilisation involving around ten thousand troops, including infantry, mechanised, air assault capabilities, and armoured divisions.
The most notable moment came in the late 1980s when Zia-Ul-Haq began aggressively shaping the Bleed India Thousand Cuts doctrine by operationalising the same, codenaming it Operation Tupac. Under Operation Tupac, Haq launched a covert campaign against India by waging psychological/communal warfare by fuelling anti-India separatists in Kashmir and triggering balkanisation of India by fueling an Islamist uprising in India and communal disharmony.
Cut to the late 1990s, the phase of a rising new military ruler, Parvez Musharraf, who aggressively shaped Pakistan’s Kashmir obsession(fueling militants in Kashmir) and even waged the Kargil War with India in 1999. Mushraff also significantly contributed to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons development and oversaw Pakistan’s Nuclear test as Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee. He even mulled using atomic weapons against India after the 2001 Parliament attacks and when tensions increased in 2002, leading to an India-Pakistan standoff. After the 26/11 attacks, the then Pakistan Army Chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani threatened India that “Pakistan will react within minutes if attacked” under the backdrop of the India-Pakistan standoff in 2008.
Asim Munir’s Madman Approach
Asim Munir’s recent statements and hawkish behaviour towards shaping Pakistan’s strategic security and strengthening anti-India rhetoric. Munir’s bluster against India is not new. At a Kashmir solidarity event in February, Munir said, “Three wars have been fought for Kashmir, and if ten more need to be fought, we will fight,” echoing Bhutto’s Thousand Years of War. Munir’s Madman approach indicates two essential aspects: one is continuing blustering and extending threats, and the second is engaging in coercive deterrence against India to explore options for bargaining, diametrically opposite to what his predecessor, Qamar Javed Bajwa, did by negotiating a ceasefire deal through backdoor diplomacy in 2021. Asim Munir’s Madman approach, perhaps inspired by his hardcore Islamic credentials with hawkish strategic thinking, an attribute closely aligning with early generals fixated with madman approaches. Ever since Munir took over as Pakistan’s new General, he has attempted to sophistically reorganise sub-conventional warfare against India and strengthen residual terror activities and strikes in J&K to deter India and keep the Kashmir issue strategically relevant, which was diminished after the removal of Article 370.
General’s Madman Approach: A Double-Edged Sword
According to the madman approach, stemming from the presidency of former US President Richard Nixon, leaders try to engage in coercive bargaining and deterrence tactics by making incredible threats appear credible with blustering and dashing. Such actions instill seriousness and confidence in the leaders during tension and conflict. In the case of Pakistan, this Madman approach obsession by former Generals and now with Asim Munir is a double-edged sword for Pakistan. For all generals, this approach was key to short-term success with long-term consequences. Yahaya’s bluster towards India and aggressive campaigns in East India might have weakened India’s influence in East Pakistan, but a pre-emptive military action to coerce and deter India turned out to be a grand failure, humiliating Pakistan. Similarly, Zia-Ul-Haq and Parvez Musharraf both might have succeeded in tactically coercing India and finding a bargaining chip on Kashmir. Still, both strategically failed as they destroyed the space of trust and mutual respect in India-Pakistan relations. Asim Munir too is desperately playing the madman card, not only to instil his confidence and seriousness in Pakistan’s military establishment as he faces serious internal security threats at home, but also to attempt to exploit and instigate a serious security situation evolving at India’s eastern borders under the backdrop of multiple socio-political issues, especially the Waqf Board. However, Munir must realise and learn from history that Generals with a madman approach mindset have been consumed by their own stoked flames.
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