The last time Donald Trump was president, ties between the United States and India flourished. But the bilateral relationship began to fray during Joe Biden’s presidency, owing not least to divisions over the Ukraine war. Will Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s latest meeting with Trump at the White House mark the first step toward restoring this critical relationship?
Trump has made no secret of his conviction that personal bonds between leaders can underpin stronger bilateral relationships. And he and Modi certainly share an affinity: both are nationalist politicians who are loved in their countries respectively.
The visit, however, comes at a time when President Trump, in his second term, is looking to revisit many existing global frameworks, trade relationships, and also America’s engagement in world conflicts. Many of these issues have a direct bearing on India. It would, therefore, be interesting to see how India navigates these changes and manages to maintain a strong relationship with the US, a strategically important bilateral partnership.
There are many other issues too that the Modi government will have to keep navigating with the new Trump administration skillfully. Trump has threatened to increase tariffs on all BRICS nations including India, as he feels that that the China is using multilateral platform in a devious way against US to weaken the dollar. He also uses the threat of tariffs as a political tool to settle political scores with rivals. The US has already imposed 25 per cent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and an additional tariff of 10 per cent on goods entering from China.
Already, the two countries are working to deepen military interoperability, and the US has overtaken Russia as India’s leading weapons supplier, new contracts show. As Trump and Modi build on their rapport, both should recognize that India is America’s most important partner in countering China’s hegemonic ambitions. It is thus in shared interest to restore and deepen bilateral ties, including by strengthening collaboration on critical and emerging technologies, from AI to biotechnology. Warm personal relations are an added bonus.
The US-India relations took a turn for the worse after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Biden administration mobilized America’s allies and partners to join its campaign to punish Russia — and, ideally, compel it to change its behavior. But far from joining this effort, India stayed neutral and seized the opportunity to secure cheap Russian oil.
There were other points of contention, as well. The Biden administration sought to weaken Myanmar’s military junta by imposing stringent sanctions on the country and sending “non-lethal aid” to rebel groups — a policy that has contributed to instability in India’s border state of Manipur. Biden also coddled Pakistan’s military-backed regime, including by approving a $450-million deal in 2022 to upgrade the country’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets.
Similarly, Biden welcomed the interim government that Bangladesh’s military installed following the overthrow of the country’s India-friendly government last August. Bangladesh’s rapid descent into lawlessness and Islamist violence since then has raised serious security risks for India, which is already home to millions of illegally settled Bangladeshis.
America’s approach to Sikh separatist leaders on its soil had also raised India’s hackles. Under the Biden administration, the US carried out a criminal investigation into India’s alleged involvement in supposed assassination plots against Sikh militants in the US and Canada. Last September, just days before Biden met with Modi in Delaware, senior White House and US intelligence officials met with Sikh separatists to assure them that they would be protected from “transnational repression”. The following month, the US charged a former Indian intelligence officer in an alleged failed plot to kill a New York-based Sikh militant, who is on India’s most-wanted list.
Against this backdrop, it is easy to see why Trump’s victory in last November’s presidential election raised hopes in India for a reset in bilateral relations. It helps that Trump has repeatedly pledged to negotiate a quick conclusion to the Ukraine war, meaning that India’s choice not to pick a side in that conflict would no longer matter.
India is the world’s third-largest primary energy consumer, after China and the US, and the largest source of oil demand growth. That makes the country a highly attractive market for a US administration that is committed to increasing domestic oil and gas production. It also means that Trump’s commitment to pushing down oil prices, including by applying pressure on OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, would benefit India’s economy. But Trump has never been particularly concerned about ensuring that his trade agreements are mutually beneficial. Regarding India, his plan may well be to use the threat of tariffs to compel Modi’s government to accept the trade deal of his choosing.
Where trade is concerned, Trump treats friends and foes alike. But it matters that India is a friend — and Trump should want to keep it that way. The US-India strategic partnership helps advance the two countries’ shared interests in the Indo-Pacific region, the world’s emerging economic and geopolitical hub, including strengthening maritime security and supporting a stable balance of power.
