The relations between China and Pakistan which was referred to as an all weather one is unlikely to weather the storm this time around with the world witnessing rapid developments.
The election of Donald Trump and the subsequent freezing of USAID to Pakistan has left the country in a dilemma and its planners are thinking of a way forward. Pakistan may have miscalculated its moves by getting too close to China in a bid to counter the US threat.
Pakistan was left in the sidelines during Trump’s first term and even during the Joe Biden presidency nothing much worked in favour of Islamabad. Pakistan had hoped that its close ties with China would help maintain a balance with an aggressive United States. Further it also felt that this relationship would keep India under check.
However recent events clearly suggest that for China, Pakistan is becoming a liability. The only reason why the ties have not collapsed is because Beijing has several business interests in Pakistan.
A lacklustre response
In China, traditionally the Spring Festival is a time for a family reunion. With the festival concluding China welcomed its first foreign leader, Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari. The timing of this visit and the significance the Spring Festival has suggests that both countries share close ties.
This visit was however more important for Pakistan as it tries to salvage the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. It also wants China to mediate between Islamabad and the Taliban in Afghanistan. The visit is also a fallout of Trump freezing USAID, which has hit Pakistan badly.
However, what has surprised experts and analysts is that this visit by Zardari was quite lacklustre. No mainstream Chinese media has extensively covered the event. Further there was little or no discussion on platforms such as Weibo, which clearly suggests that Pakistan is no longer a topic of interest in China.
None in China would have expected that the relations would become cold so soon. It was only a few years back that experts in China had said that Pakistan supported Beijing and relations were obstacle free. They also called Pakistan as a very reliable partner.
However, all that has changed today thanks a spate of terror attacks targeting Chinese nationals who are involved in China funded projects, particularly along the China Pakistan Economic Corridor. This has led to skepticism in China and questions about Pakistan’s reliability are being questioned.
Trust eroding
The leadership in Pakistan may try and suggest that all is well with its all-weather friend. However, the ground reality is something different and China is miffed that Pakistan has not done enough to safeguard its nationals. There is a growing anti-China sentiment in Pakistan and this has just not helped Islamabad’s cause.
What has also added to the problem is that the internet is flooded with videos in which Pakistanis are seen hurling racial slurs against the Chinese. Further videos of Chinese nationals being refused entry into hotels have also gone viral. This clearly indicates that the anti-China sentiment in Pakistan is at its peak.
The biggest issue is however the targeting of the Chinese projects in Pakistan. China has been pushing Pakistan to do more, but not much has come out of this. With the attacks on Chinese nationals rising, there is a growing demand that Beijing be allowed to handle the security of its projects in Pakistan. Islamabad on the other hand does not want the Chinese to control law and order in the country. This led to another suggestion about carrying out joint operations to fight those who are targeting Chinese nationals. Pakistan is trying to turn down this suggestion as well, but Beijing remains adamant.
Further there are narratives that are hurting China as well. Questions are being asked as to why China should be involved with Pakistan. The track record of Pakistan is fighting those targeting Chinese interests is dismal and the counterterrorism strategy has been ineffective.
While Pakistan would never let go of China as an ally the same cannot be said about Beijing. Pakistan is today becoming increasingly dependant on China as it has become largely isolated. Pakistan has been quick to praise China whether or not it agrees with its policies and this is not out of choice but out compulsion.
China is looking to distance itself from Pakistan as the latter is becoming a liability. No matter what the optics are, the fact is that a lost of Chinese are losing their lives or are being threatened in Pakistan. China on the other hand has its own set of problems in terms of territorial disputes. It also has to deal with the ongoing rivalry with the United States. With so much on hand and Pakistan offering no safety for its nationals, China today considers Pakistan to be more of a liability.
For now, both countries may put up a united front. However, for China, its patience is running out as it cannot afford to hold on to a friendship at the cost of its nationals losing their lives and Beijing bearing heavy losses as its investments get heavily targeted in Pakistan.
