Four years after his contested loss, Trump scripted a landslide victory, skillfully navigating through the rough waters of American politics, vengeful bureaucrats in the Justice department and a ruthless leftist media cartel. His spectacular political comeback has made him an even greater hero among the vast majority of Americans. What can the world expect from Trump’s second term in office?
Shake Up at State
Given the central role played by the State Department for decades in formulating American policy, sometimes even circumventing a sitting President, one of the first acts of Trump was to authorise the restructuring of the highly politicized Department. Just days ago, veteran diplomat, Donald Lu was unceremoniously fired from his job. Expect a complete cleanup in the weeks and months ahead. Trump’s desire to end wars, not to start new wars, and more importantly to not get involved in any new wars, will have to be carried out by officials who are totally loyal to that policy.
Russia – Ukraine War
During the election season, a common claim by the President was that Russia would have never invaded Ukraine if he was in office. He wants to end the conflict, which has brought so much misery to the people of Ukraine. Trump is not excited about provoking Russia or any other major powers, which used to be a hobby of the US establishment.
Taiwan and the Middle East
Taiwan, and the ever-volatile Middle East, remain the world’s two imminent hot spots for a wider regional conflict. Given the President’s desire for a peaceful world, Russia, China, Iran and Israel are less likely to provoke or precipitate conflicts in these regions. The US and China may enter into a mutually beneficial deal on a quid pro quo basis. Similarly, Trump may be able to build upon the Abraham Accords and diffuse tensions between Israel and Iran, perhaps offering sensible incentives. In addition, Trump may have better luck than his predecessors in clamping down some of Israel’s controversial policies under Netanyahu. A militarily weakened Iran has already responded positively to Trump’s new policies. There is good chance of a new Iran Nuclear deal, given the positive steps taken by Iran and the US to deescalate existing tensions.
Dollar and Global Trade
Trump has stated in no uncertain terms that his policies will only aid and strengthen the central role of the US Dollar as the currency of choice in global trade. Attempts by China and Russia to undermine the Dollar will be countered vigorously by the new administration. After all, the dominance of the Dollar after World War II, had made the US the undisputed leader in the global economy. Trump is acutely aware of this fact and have no intention to weaken the popular currency.
Illegal Immigration
On day one, the President signed executive orders implementing his promises related to illegal immigration. Make no mistake, he considers illegal immigration as legally sanctioned invasion. American borders will be sealed to prevent such invasions in the future. Many interpret his policies as anti-immigrant and anti-immigration, which is grossly false. The Socialist notion of a borderless world has created immense strife for millions of people around the world. Trump’s no-nonsense policies on immigration may find equal appeal in faraway Europe and India, as both had to confront the menace for the past few decades.
Energy independence
Trump has proposed a major expansion of domestic oil and gas production in order to reduce dependence on other energy producing countries and making the US a net exporter of oil and gas. His policies in Alaska, Texas and other states should be viewed from this thrust on energy independence. Even the proposed annexation of Canada and the purchase of Greenland are aimed at increasing American access to vast natural resources, especially oil and gas and countering Russian and Chinese advances in the Artic region.
Government Efficiency
A direct consequence of efforts to reduce wasteful government spending was immediately felt when the White House sent directives to all government agencies regarding DEI (Diversity, Equity and Inclusion) related programs. Specifically, all USAID to foreign countries have been suspended for 90 days to conduct a full review of the program. The USAID has been a novel way for the US government to fund NGO’s which advance the DEI agenda across the globe. Although started in the 60’s by Lyndon Johnson, even Republican Presidents found it risky to do away with the decades long initiative to interfere in the internal affairs of pretty much every country on the planet.
The Indo Pacific
The Indian Ocean Rim is home to 33 nations and a third of the world’s population and it is emerging as the new center of economic gravity, making its safety of paramount importance to the US, Europe and Asia. Acutely aware of the major role the QUAD could play in the event of a major conflict in the Indo-Pacific region, the President showed the importance he assigns to the body by inviting all the member foreign ministers to his inauguration. The administration is likely to pursue a robust policy allocating greater funds and strengthening collaboration in order to ensure peace in the vital Indian Ocean Zone. By 2050, half of global merchandise trade is projected to go through the Indian Ocean. Trump wants to make sure the US and its allies control the most important maritime routes of the future.
Trade Wars
Trump is of the view that the United States is being treated unfairly by other countries due to unfavorable trade terms. He is highly focused on the high tariffs levied against US exports, which make American products less attractive to foreign consumers. He will be a tough negotiator seeking more equitable outcomes for America. China, Canada and few European countries are likely to feel the brunt of the consequences of Trump’s trade policies. The world will find the author of the best-selling book, “Art of the Deal”, to be a tough negotiator indeed.
Terrorism and Global Security
Trump has designated the drug cartels operating south of the border as terrorist organisations. He will show zero tolerance for terrorism anywhere. Unlike past Presidents, he is unlikely to follow a policy of selective action. A more coherent and prudent policy towards global terrorism augers well for countries suffering from the menace of radical Islamic terror groups. President Biden is accused of engineering a regime change in Bangladesh, ousting its democratically elected leader. In the process, the Biden administration colluded with radical and fundamentalist Islamic groups in the South Asian country. Unlike Biden and other Democratic Presidents before him, Trump is not a fan of employing terrorism as an instrument of foreign policy, even indirectly through proxies.
Climate Change
A pessimist on global climate change, the President will relegate the pet policy of many previous administrations, especially Democrats, to the shelf for the next 4 years. There is no likelihood of American cooperation on any international agreement to reduce carbon emissions. The US is withdrawing itself from the Paris Climate Agreement, the international accord to control factors contributing to global environmental issues.
US – India Relations
The bilateral relations will soar to new heights under the new President and it will be reflected in every facet of US-India ties. There are many factors contributing to this welcome phenomenon.
In 2020, President Trump addressed his biggest audience ever, more than 125,000 Indians gathered in the largest cricket stadium of the world to receive him. The “Namaste Trump” event was an unforgettable welcome for the Trump Parivar. The Indian endorsement of Trump, as a transformational leader, caught the imagination of the American public. Never before had an American President received such a warm and cordial welcome on Indian soil. That gesture will pay huge dividends in the second term of the President.
Trump recognises India as a responsible rising power. Her popularity in the world has skyrocketed in the past decade. India is not only rising, but it is doing so with great speed. Indian leadership has also paid attention to social progress on a massive scale. The country’s accomplishments have stunned even sworn enemies like Pakistan. It won’t be long before India becomes the third largest economy in the world. Rather than undermine India’s power and potential, Trump has grasped the enormous benefits of leveraging India’s emerging strength and prosperity for the United States and the world.
Trump’s equation with Prime Minister Modi is perhaps better than most other world leaders. Relationship between nations is built on the personal chemistry of leaders. Look at America’s neighbor, Canada. Trudeau and Trump cannot see eye to eye on any issue. Hence, Canada’s ties with the US have plummeted to its lowest levels in recent memory. The same is true with many other relationships. When leaders like each other, the nations they represent benefit form greater cooperation and collaboration. Prime Minister Modi has made it a priority to befriend every leader in the world. The world in turn has reciprocated his friendly gestures. Numerous countries have even honored him with their highest national awards. The world loves Modi. In spite of Modi being a tough negotiator, Trump has opted to nurture close personal and family bonds.
Trump abhors the Far Left. So does the vast majority in today’s India. In the Post War era, America’s Democratic Party and its affiliates engaged in sustained efforts to expand socialism around the world. It suited one section of the population, which was obsessed with promoting an “Internationalist” agenda, which in almost all cases involved intervention and interference in the domestic affairs of other nations. The result was a global patronage system, where the American Left literally controlled domestic policies of others through various international institutions, NGO’s and innumerable media platforms. Both Modi and Trump were victims of these vicious forces. In some cases, their adversaries were one and the same, such as billionaire George Soros. Trump is on a roll and his mission will be to remove Socialist imprints from American life and discredit its patrons just as Modi is aiming to eradicate the last remnants of India’s Socialist culture.
Trump is also cognisant of India’s hostile neighborhood. He is unlikely to block Modi’s plans for the rest of South Asia. That will be a smart move by the President and it has the potential to further boost US-India friendship in the long run.
Trump’s cabinet is certainly unconventional. Regardless of their religious, national or ethnic backgrounds, His nominees have tremendous respect for Hindus and India, echoing the sentiments of their Commander in Chief. This is unprecedented in US history. I wouldn’t be surprised if historians record the next four years as the golden era of US-India relations. Just as there is an unusual alignment of the stars in 2025, there is a rare alignment of global political forces.
