The year 2024 was an eventful one for Bharat. While there were plenty of successes on the security front, they were also challenging.
Bharat will continue to make large strides in terms of progress in the year 2025, but on the security front, there will continue to be major challenges with the situation both across the globe and in the region, changing rapidly.
Security analysts tell the Organiser that Bharat would have to face several challenges in the region. This would include Pakistan, the proxy war in Jammu & Kashmir, Bangladesh and also the Khalistan movement.
Let us take a look at issues that the country would have to deal with in the year 2025.
Pakistan’s proxy war in Jammu & Kashmir
At the start of 2024, there were plenty of challenges in Jammu & Kashmir, with a large number of infiltrations being reported. The number of terror-related incidents witnessed a considerable rise, but over the next couple of months, it was brought under control.
The year 2025 would see no let up by Pakistan when it comes to waging a proxy war in J&K. The worry for the security agencies is that considering the mess that Pakistan is in, it would attempt to undertake various adventures in J&K so that it could act as a diversion.
The current analysis by the military Intelligence is that the Pakistan Army has set up at least 8 launch pads in Pakistan-occupied Jammu & Kashmir (PoJK). The estimate is that there are nearly 350 terrorists at these pads waiting to be launched into Jammu & Kashmir.
While the Indian Army is on high alert, it would still be challenging to deal with the situation since the Pakistani terrorists would make attempts all through the year to infiltrate J&K and carry out terror attacks.
An Intelligence Bureau official said that the problem would be from the foreign terrorists and not the local ones. In 2024, nearly 65 per cent of the terrorists that the security agencies had to deal with were from Pakistan, and this signals a major drop in the number of local terrorists. This year, we expect a further drop in the number of locals operating in the Union Territory. The challenge would be immense from the Pakistani terrorists, the officer also noted.
Situation in Bangladesh
Since August 2024, Bharat has had to deal with the crisis in Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina was overthrown by a staged students’ protests that was controlled by the radical Islamists. New Delhi has given refuge to Hasina, and Bangladesh has made this a bone of contention.
Following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, Muhammad Yunus, a stooge of the West and puppet of the ISI, was installed as caretaker of the new government in Bangladesh. Since his taking over, he has made very fast-paced alignments towards Pakistan. The visa policy which does not require prior checks for Pakistanis travelling to Bangladesh was introduced last year by Yunus. Further, Yunus opened the sea route from Pakistan to Bangladesh. Since the decision was made, at least two containers with arms and ammunition have made their way into Bangladesh.
The radical Islamists who control Bangladesh with the blessings of Pakistan have taken aim at Bharat. These elements have spared no attempt to make their intentions clear about how they want to create trouble in Bharat. The Indian security agencies will face numerous challenges along the Indo-Bangla border as infiltration attempts are likely to rise in the days to come. There would be attempts made to infiltrate as many Muslims as possible in a bid to create communal tensions and change the demographics, especially in the northeastern states and West Bengal.
Adding to the problem is the widespread persecution of the Hindus in Bangladesh. Bharat would have to deal with this issue with an iron fist so that the Hindus and other minorities are not persecuted in Bangladesh.
Khalistan
Analysts say that the Khalistan issue would remain largely under control thanks to the crackdowns, but would continue to pose a security risk for New Delhi. The security agencies have successfully taken down these elements in Punjab and the neighbouring states, which will continue in 2025, too.
However, the major irritant would be from the Khalistani elements who have settled abroad in countries such as Canada. They would continue with their propaganda with the intention of trying to incite the youth in Punjab.
While New Delhi would continue to raise this issue globally, it would also hope that there is a regime change in Canada. Justin Trudeau, whose ratings are at an all-time low, has been sympathetic towards the Khalistanis. An election will be held in Canada, and considering Trudeau’s standing, he is most certainly going to lose. The new regime, Bharat hopes, is not supportive of the Khalistanis and the gangsters who back them.
Further, Canada is likely to shift its focus towards its economy rather than concentrate on these radical elements. Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated on January 20, has threatened tariffs which would plunge Canada into an economic crisis. Hence, the country would give larger focus to that pressing issue and hopefully also cooperate with New Delhi with regard to these Khalistanis, who will soon become a security nightmare for Canada.
The underworld
In 2024 Lawrence Bishnoi made news. His name cropped up several times last year, and following the death of Baba Siddiqui, he made it to the headlines. He has also issued threats to Salman Khan and has vowed to avenge the killing of a black buck.
Currently it appears he is the one who has a large control over Bollywood. What the Mumbai police worry is that the Dawood Ibrahim network, which has been lying low, could remerge to counter Bishnoi’s dominance. If this were to happen, there would be a full-blown gang war on the streets of Mumbai, signalling the return of the 1990s.
The D-Syndicate has also been tasked by the ISI to reactivate its hit squads, which were formed to target Hindu leaders. The recent violence in Sambhal has been attributed to a member of the Dawood gang. These are just early signs of what the Dawood gang, controlled by the ISI, would be up to. The same model was found to be active in 2015 and 2017, wherein they had planned murders of Hindu leaders in Gujarat and Maharashtra.
Drug cartels
Drug smuggling into India remains a major concern. In 2024, there have been various such incidents, but the agencies could pride themselves on busting major drug hauls.
While there have been successful busts, what is worrisome is the newer routes, new players and sheer volume of the consignment. The largest bust reported in 2024 was at Andaman and Nicobar, where a consignment of 6,000 kilograms of methamphetamine was busted. The consignment was vaulted at Rs 30,000 crore. Such numbers are unheard of, and this in itself is a worry and will continue to pose a challenge.
Further, the number of players in the drug market has also increased. Earlier, it was the Dawood syndicate, which was the biggest player in the country. However, the investigation into the Andaman and Nicobar drug case suggested that a Mexican cartel led by El-Mencho was at play. The new players have been employing Myanmar nationals to smuggle the drugs, and their destinations have largely been India and Thailand.
Radicalisation
Radicalisation would also remain a challenge this year. Outfits such as the Popular Front of India, which is banned, have been making attempts to revive itself. While a revival may not be easy, Intelligence agencies suspect that the Islamic State would look to fill in that space.
The Islamic State has managed to get sufficient traction in Bharat, especially in the southern part of the country. It had indicated early last year that it would fill the space left by the PFI. The agencies would continue to monitor the activities of these outfits as their online radicalisation programmes are a big hit among many Muslims. These groups will try and incite violence in a bid to create a rift within the country and also orchestrate communal riots, the agencies have assessed.
Cybercrime
Cybercrime, according to analysts, not just in Bharat but across the world, will only grow this year. The issue is a very serious one and poses a threat to the common man.
A study by the Public Response against Helplessness and Action for Redressal said that by 2033, cyberattacks are set to rise to 1 trillion per annum. By 2047, when the country turns 100, there will be 17 trillion such cases.
This indicates that cybercrimes will continue to remain a major headache. The year 2024 has seen a large number of cyber crimes being reported. The biggest headache last year was, however, digital arrests, with scores falling prey to the menace.
The situation would continue to evolve, and the best minds in New Delhi would continue to find ways to tackle the menace. Counter cybercrime measures and major awareness campaigns are on the anvil to tackle the problem. While Islamic radicalisation and terrorism would have to be dealt with an equal emphasis or even more would be given to tackle cybercrimes.
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