As tensions continue between India and Bangladesh, with Bangladeshi media trying its best to push the false narrative that India is about to attack Bangladesh, it is important to understand that beneath the veneer of the anti-India rhetoric that Bangladesh is trying to rake up, there is a sinister plot that is gradually taking shape, which may create a 30- year long headache for India. India does face a massive threat of beginning of a long drawn asymmetric war, terrorism in other words, that may emanate from Bangladesh, and which may severely threaten India’s tranquility in the whole of Eastern side.
The Sinister Plot
India’s enemy is not the people of Bangladesh. After all, thousands of personnel of Indian Armed Forces, sacrificed their lives for creation of Bangladesh as a sovereign nation. However, India’s concerns are about those who are hatching a dangerous conspiracy to turn Bangladesh into another Pakistan, for launching major terror attacks on India from the eastern side, to choke India’s chicken neck corridor, and plotting to annex the Northeastern states of India.
It must be remembered that the illegal infiltration that happens in India from Bangladesh, is not by default, but potentially by design to deliberately alter demography in areas adjoining the international border, and then use that as a ground to push more infiltrators into other parts of India. If one looks at how crores of illegal infiltrators have entered India, this is precisely the process, albeit along with an entire ecosystem out there, to facilitate the illegals get Aadhar ID Card, Voter ID Card, and Ration Card, so that they can then claim them to be legal inhabitants of India. Unfortunately, this has continued in India for far too long with impunity, and with grave consequences for future.
The Threat
In the recent past, former Member of Parliament Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, from Congress Party, who has won several elections from the Berhampore constituency in the district of Murshidabad in West Bengal, has warned about the severe threat that may emanate from Bangladesh for the districts of Murshidabad, Malda and Dinajpur, owing to them being Muslim majority districts, and which may be claimed by Bangladesh as part of ‘Extended Bangladesh’. This may seem preposterous today, but its potential possibility cannot be ruled out given the fact that many in Bangladesh, from the elite intellectuals to the members of Islamist groups, believe that partition of Bangladesh has been ‘incomplete’ and that many parts of India in the eastern side, including
West Bengal, Northeast, perhaps even Bihar and Jharkhand are theirs, as per them.
Even though Bangladesh cannot become a military threat to India, there is a strong possibility that in those districts, as warned by Adhir Chowdhury, Bangladesh based terror organizations, may resort to terror attacks, and create a Kashmir kind of situation. That possibility cannot be ruled out even for those parts of Assam which has a significant Bengali speaking Muslim population, and may be similarly claimed by certain radical extremist elements in Bangladesh, as theirs’s.
Connecting the Threads
On the December 16 this year, even as the Independence Day celebrations in Bangladesh remained muted, Mahfuz Alam, considered to be one of the most powerful persons in the Yunus run interim government, and the ‘mastermind’ of the 2024 Student Protests in Bangladesh that led to ouster of Sheikh Hasina, made a Facebook post where he claimed that Bangladesh must expand geographically to be ‘truly victorious, independent and liberated’. The Facebook post of his, which he later deleted, showed map of Eastern parts of India, including West Bengal and Northeast India. He also stated that work on the same ‘has just begun’!
Mahfuz Alam is no ordinary Bangladeshi, but a top Advisor in the Yunus Government. He is a hardline Islamist, and thus what he stated, in fact resonates considerably with the apprehension that has been stated by Adhir Chowdhury about threat to Malda, Murshidabad and Dinajpur. Not only Yunus Government remained silent on the whole issue, an indication of complicity, what is of bigger concern is the manner in which Yunus Government has given a free run to the hardline Islamist groups inside Bangladesh. Yunus facilitated release of many such extremists from jail, who pose a direct threat to security, safety and sovereignty of India. Jashimuddin Rahmani is one such example. The hardline Islamist cleric, who heads the terror outfit Ansarullah Bangla Tiger (ABT), has given direct threats to India, warned about closing Siliguri Corridor, disintegrate India, join hands with separatists to wage terrorism in Punjab, Kashmir, and Northeast.
Also, under Yunus Government, those convicted and sentenced to death in the 10-truck arms haul case in Chittagong, that were allegedly meant to be shipped to insurgent groups operating in Northeast India, were acquitted, which includes former State Minister for Home Affairs, Lutfozzaman Babar. The death sentence of Paresh Barua, military commander of ULFA, was also commuted to life sentence. Also, the decision by Yunus Government to ease the visa requirements, including doing away with security clearances for visiting Pakistanis, stinks of an ominous agenda to give ISI a free run in Bangladesh, and prepare the ground for major anti-India operations including terror attacks, rioting, pushing of illegal currencies, targeting of critical infrastructures, and infiltrating more Bangladeshis illegally into India to further change the demography.
If one looks at the post of Mahfuz Alam, threats of Jashimuddin Rahmani, actions of Yunus Government, and the planned manner in which anti-India sentiments are being cultivated, then one is compelled to believe that the apprehensions of Adhir Chowdhury are genuine, and India has to completely recalibrate its Bangladesh policy, especially from the perspective of border management. It is also clear that Pakistan being on the verge of implosion, Kashmir issue being almost settled by Modi Government, and Western Deep State elements having failed to remove Modi Government from power, the Bangladesh plot was hatched, not for creating a better Bangladesh, but to create a major security challenge for India in the times to come, so that India cannot have an unhindered growth prospect forever.
What India Must Do
Against this backdrop, it is pertinent to consider what steps India must take to secure its eastern borders. In essence, for far too long, India’s security planners have been Pakistan centric. Threats to Eastern India, including the issues of demographic shift, and that this may emerge as a potential risk to India’s sovereignty, may not have been prioritized as a challenge for long. But now, the eastern parts of India, faces as much of grave threat as the western or northern borders face.
Fence the Unfenced Borders
India’s porous and open borders, with both Bangladesh and Nepal are major threats. They have been misused by India’s adversaries for far too long. India needs to immediately fence the Indo-Nepal Border, and completely sanitize Indo-Bangladesh border. While some ambitious work is being executed by Government of India to fence the Indo-Myanmar border, and certain most sensitive areas of Indo-Bangladesh border is also being fenced, issue is that the fencing has to happen on a war footing, and not be segregated as a decade long mission. If it is witnessed that land acquisition for fencing is becoming a problem, then Central Government must invoke emergency clauses to acquire land for fencing work, especially along the porous borders of West Bengal.
Expansion of BSF
As things stand today, along with measures for electronic surveillance in the porous areas, through application of technology, Government must on a priority basis massively expand the manpower of BSF. Given the emerging threat along the eastern borders, BSF may need 25-30 more battalions to completely sanitize the eastern borders. This is as important as making big ticket acquisitions like purchase of fighter jets, production of ballistic missiles or warships.
Change SOP for Bangladesh Border
It is extremely crucial for Government of India to change the Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) for BSF along the Indo-Bangladesh border. India needs to implement the same SOPs that are there for BSF while guarding the Indo-Pakistan border. The policy of use of non-lethal weapons must be changed. Any person whosoever, is trying to sneak into this side illegally must be treated as a ‘threat’ and dealt in the same manner in which intruders from across the border are treated along the Indo-Pakistan border. The threat from Bangladesh is for real and thus this change is a must.
Severely Penalise Illegal Infiltrators
Government of India must create severe deterrence to prevent illegal infiltration. Any person caught while illegally crossing the border must be incarcerated with punishment which is not less than 10 years of rigorous imprisonment. Further, those who are found to be in possession of fake Aadhar Card or Ration Card, must be severely punished. In fact, India needs a new set of laws to severely penalize the entire ecosystem that provides fake identity cards to illegal infiltrators. Unless these measures are taken, tackling the emerging threat from Bangladesh would not be an easy task to deal with. The present architecture needs major upgrade.
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