With Donald Trump returning to the White House, there are questions about how his second term will shape US foreign policy and, in particular, India-US relations. Trump’s foreign policy has always emphasised “America First”, suggesting that his next term could be marked by more pronounced isolationism. However, his warm rapport with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi — first showcased during “Howdy, Modi!” and “Namaste Trump” — promises a unique diplomatic foundation. This bond between the two leaders could prove pivotal as they steer relations between the world’s oldest and largest democracies. In recent weeks, Trump has been quite vocal about the treatment of Hindus in Bangladesh and elsewhere. If Trump 2.0 can find an end to the two ongoing catastrophic wars, New Delhi could greatly benefit as well.
A Friendship of Consequence
The camaraderie between Trump and PM Modi has set a precedent in India-US relations. PM Modi, with his pro-business stance and focus on economic growth, has found a like-minded partner in Trump. Both leaders champion policies aimed at business innovation, deregulation, and economic development. Under their leadership, India and the US could potentially drive significant changes on the global economic stage. Both nations are motivated by common interests: India aims to become the world’s third-largest economy, while the US seeks reliable allies to counterbalance China’s growing influence.
Their close friendship signals continuity, which is crucial for tackling shared global challenges. A Trump-Modi alliance can deepen not only economic ties but also offer strategic alignment on issues like counterterrorism and Indo-Pacific stability. Given India’s strategic location and growing influence, the two leaders could amplify each other’s strengths and create a ripple effect across other alliances.
Shifting demographics and the Indian-American vote
Trump’s relationship with Modi could also shape the political landscape within the US. Among Indian-Americans, traditionally loyal to the Democratic Party, a shift towards conservative values has emerged in recent years. Criticisms of the Biden administration’s regulatory policies have resonated with this community, which values business-friendly policies, family-oriented conservatism, and lower taxes. Trump’s “America First” rhetoric, while often seen as isolationist, has begun to appeal to segments of the Indian-American community who view the Republican Party as more aligned with their values and economic goals.
This changing demographic landscape could alter the future political calculus. Indian-Americans are among the wealthiest and most educated immigrant groups in the US. Their shift toward conservatism could lead to increased Republican influence within this community, especially as they seek policies that promote business growth, less regulation, and lower taxes.
Economic tensions: Reciprocity and trade policies
Trade is a delicate issue, particularly with Trump’s stance on “reciprocal taxes.” During his 2016 presidency, Trump frequently criticised countries that imposed high tariffs on US goods, and India was no exception. Trump’s rhetoric around “reciprocity” suggests he may revisit tariff policies if they continue to perceive a trade imbalance. India’s tariffs on certain US goods have long been a point of contention for Trump, who has called for more equitable trade practices.
For India, increased tariffs could challenge industries like IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles that rely on the US market. However, if Trump pushes for decoupling from China — part of his previous economic strategy — it could benefit India, potentially drawing more US investment into its manufacturing sector. This decoupling offers India a unique opportunity to position itself as a reliable alternative for American companies looking to diversify their supply chains.
Immigration and the H-1B visa dilemma
Immigration policy remains a contentious point in India-US relations, particularly for Indian professionals. Trump’s previous administration introduced stricter requirements for H-1B visas, a programme critical to Indian tech professionals and businesses. These restrictions raised concerns among Indian nationals and the broader tech industry, which relies on skilled foreign talent. Any reintroduction of these policies could affect India’s talent pipeline and impact Indian professionals in the US.
Defence and security in the Indo-Pacific
India-US defence ties have grown significantly in recent years, especially with moves like the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) and major defence deals. Under the Joe Biden administration, the GE-HAL agreement, which enables the production of jet engines in India, and other key collaborations have strengthened India’s defence capabilities. Trump’s second term might bring a more transactional approach to these alliances, potentially making defence deals conditional on India’s own commitments.
The QUAD was elevated during Trump’s first term as a counterbalance to China. In a second Trump term, further emphasis on Quad initiatives could reinforce India’s role as a key player in maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific region. By enhancing military cooperation, the US and India can jointly address China’s assertive policies, underscoring their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Counterterrorism: A common goal
Counterterrorism has been an area of shared interest for Trump and Modi. During Trump’s first administration, his “Peace through Strength” doctrine aligned well with India’s security priorities, particularly concerning Pakistan. A Trump-Modi partnership could strengthen joint efforts to counter terrorist threats and address extremism. Modi has long advocated for a firmer stance on terrorism, and Trump’s unapologetic approach to foreign policy could lead to coordinated efforts in combating terror networks, benefiting regional stability. A robust US-India counterterrorism partnership under Trump could exert diplomatic pressure on nations harbouring terrorist groups, thereby enhancing India’s security environment.
Trump’s isolationist foreign policy and Modi’s pro-business stance provide a complex backdrop for India-US relations. Trump’s focus on minimising US involvement in international agreements contrasts with Modi’s vision of a globally engaged India. Yet, both leaders value economic growth and national sovereignty, and they can leverage these shared values to address common concerns.
In the years ahead, Modi and Trump could focus on finding equilibrium: Bolstering economic ties while respecting each nation’s policy independence. For instance, if Trump presses for more equitable trade deals, Modi’s government could seek to negotiate terms that open new avenues for Indian exports without compromising on domestic economic policies. Similarly, Modi’s leadership in global environmental commitments may offer Trump a pathway to cooperate on issues like renewable energy without conflicting with his doctrine. MAGA and Bharat First will need to find the requisite synergy to reap the full benefits of the relationship.
Trump’s return to the White House and Modi’s continued leadership in India presents both opportunities and challenges for India-US relations. Together, they have the potential to redefine bilateral ties based on mutual economic growth, security, and strategic interests in an increasingly complex global landscape. As they navigate trade, defence, and shared regional concerns, Modi and Trump could create a partnership that not only strengthens India-US relations but also sets a new precedent for alliances between democracies. The world will be watching as they embark on this new chapter with high hopes for a partnership that could shape the future of global diplomacy and economic cooperation.
