After the alleged role in the Lebanon Pager Blast targeting Hezabollah’s top leadership, Israel has launched a sweeping air campaign against Hezbollah that resulted in the killing of Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah, an operation codenamed “New Order”. Israel’s attrition approach against Hezbollah and launching limited ground operations does remind us of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war. However, Israel’s tri-front war has now reached to such a level where a new beginning in the power games of the Middle East is scripted.
Israel’s Operation New Order
After a series of high-profile targets, from the Hamas Chief to the Hezbollah chief, and a ground operation in Lebanon condemned “Northern Arrows” Israel is now making complicated strategic calculations that have increased Middle East “security risk” beyond red lines. However, these risky calculations have few brownie points for Israel.
First- Exhaust and Destroy Axis of Resistance
Second- Strategic Paralysis of Iran’s Proxy Regime
Third- Weaken Iran’s Position in the Middle East
Fourth- Transcends Middle East In Grey Zone Of No Peace War and No Peace No War Situation.
Iran’s Calculations To Miscalculations
Iran’s last year’s sinister planning of the October 7 attacks to disrupt Middle East advancement plans and alter the balance of power in the region is perhaps now met with a misreading of the long view of the situation by Iranians. A sudden escalation by Israel has given strategic and tactical shock to Iran- a contrary assessment where Iran thought that a prolonged and protracted war with balanced escalation would weaken Israel. Though this assessment is partially true, Israel’s economy is significantly weak, a temporary effect. A conflict that began with the hope of negotiations with Iran’s terms and conditions now appears that an end may happen with Israel getting the upper hand in negotiations.
Iran’s attempt to stoke a new conflict in West Asia did meet some tactical victories of disturbing the regional economic and strategic balance of West Asia to maintain Iranian influence in the region and cut down rapid development of “West Asian Quad” dreams in the Middle East which could have seriously impacted Iran’s sphere of influence and may even isolate it. However, Iran failed to read the long view of this conflict where any strong escalation and Israel’s aggressive strategic behaviour could have turned the tables, and that is what appears to be happening, where analysts thought that Israel could not afford to venture into risky calculations. This war would be protracted yet balanced now, which seems contrary to realities.
Balance of Power in the Middle East
As stated above, there are four possible changes in Middle East geopolitics. Israel could gain some strategic benefits from these possibilities. Still, they have the strong potential to alter the balance of power in the Middle East, and the region may move into a no-peace, no-war situation.
War of Attrition Against Axis: Rise of Israel And Weakening of Iran
Israel’s aggressive air and ground campaign against terror groups of the Middle East, including Houthis in Yemen, shows a changed strategic reality where Israel has always resorted to limited and sustainable operations against terror proxies to destroy their tactical capabilities. However, this time, Israel has resorted to a widened air campaign aimed towards strategically destroying terror proxies. This widespread attrition strategy of Israel has helped to counter Israel’s all-time regional challenger, Iran. This attrition war will put Iran under tremendous pressure, and Iran, which thought strategic patience and proxy attacks would be sufficient in proactively encircling Israel, is now failing. Iran’s strategic patience seems to be running out, putting it under threat of getting engaged in an asymmetrical war.
“Grey” in Balance Of Power
Although the Middle East has already slipped in Cold War 2.0 and grey zone conflicts post Cold War and beginning of the 2000s however, this time, the grey zone dynamics are quite more significant where the region will swing between no peace war to no peace, no war situation where former one will at least stay for the time being and altering the balance of power. The balance of power in the former situation will favour Israel at a strategic level after the changed war realities and weaken Iran’s credibility, which further sets the stage for Israel’s rise, which it saw after the Arab-Israeli War in 1967. This, perhaps, will carve out space for the US’s active engagement in the Middle East, where it will attempt to set the stage for diplomatic and political engagements as a weakened Iran and strong Israel will benefit the West and Middle East. Still, a heightened security anxiety will disrupt the economic and political potential of UAE and Saudi Arabia.
However, if the situation moves into “no peace, no war”, then too much security anxiety will stay but at sustainable levels; in this situation, Iran might get some benefit as Tehran may weave out and re-strengthen its proxies. A fillip side to weekend proxies and the rise of Israel is that Iran’s proxies may be regrouped as history speaks that many war-on-terror approaches have resulted in weaving new or regrouped outfits like the US in the Battle of Tora Bora, where it failed to capture Bin Laden but it resulted in regrouping and rise of Taliban. Similarly, the 1982 Lebanon Invasion by Israel was a strategic failure where Israel’s Operation Peace for Galilee against PLO led to the rise of Hezbollah in Lebanon. The same could be repeated where new proxies and old proxies may regroup and launch a forever proxy war against Israel, which can disrupt peace and stability but at the same time might not escalate to full fledge war as Iran must have now learned strategic lessons of using proxies more wisely and adding to Israel’s economic situation where a second season of war after this is unlikely but peace will remain fragmented.
Iran’s Options And Future
Iran ran out of strategic patience and carried out ballistic missile strikes against Israel, which is going to see a strong retaliation by Israel. Iran has two options: first- Fight a limited war with Israel where asymmetrically powered Iran may face more damage, but it would help to revive proxies against Israel. Second- Back Channel or Quiet Diplomacy to begin serious negotiations with Israel to avoid the threat of direct or even limited war with Israel. As Israel, too, faces big questions about hostages, a dealmaking negotiation is the most favourable option to de-escalate. However, as the region transitions between a “no peace war and no peace no war” situation, peace and diplomacy are difficult for the area.
