BJP’s surprise and unprecedented victory in the Haryana assembly elections has dramatically changed the political narrative on the eve of Maharashtra assembly elections. With many doubting the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the fatigue in BJP’s party organisation, the exit polls (literally all of them) had called it a lost battle for the BJP. However, the BJP’s triumph has definitively put to rest about its leadership, management and the organisation and more so about the popularity of the same. This result would not only end up reviving the party’s cadre and support base in north India but will also have a ripple effect, setting the tone for the forthcoming Vidhan Sabha elections due in Maharashtra elections in more than one way.
Haryana and Maharashtra: Similar Backdrop for BJP
The 2024 Vidhan Sabha elections in both Haryana and Maharashtra come with a similar political backdrop, particularly for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In 2014, BJP achieved decisive victories in both states for the first time, breaking through the dominance of regional parties and caste-based politics. In both states BJP chose a leader from non-dominant caste to be its first Chief Minister in the state (Manohar Lal Khattar, a Punjabi in Haryana and Devendra Fadnavis, a Brahmin in Maharashtra).
However, by 2019, the party found it more difficult to form governments in both states. In Maharashtra, despite winning the most seats, the BJP was forced into an “unnatural” alliance with the NCP, after a fallout with its traditional ally, Uddhav Thackeray led Shiv Sena. Meanwhile, in Haryana, BJP’s reduced strength in the 2019 assembly elections made it dependent on the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) to form government in the state. Fast forward to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP performed poorly in the both the states raising questions anti-incumbency, about party’s ability to regain its performance in the upcoming assembly elections and clouded the possibility of BJP winning it.
However, the BJP’s unexpected and thumping victory in Haryana elections where it outperformed even it’s 2014 tally has sparked optimism for its prospects in Maharashtra which were otherwise looking grim. The mood will be “if the party can overcome the anti-incumbency and other challenges in Haryana, it sets a strong case for doing the same in Maharashtra, where the political and demographic dynamics are strikingly similar.”
Setting the Momentum and Revitalising the state unit
The Maharashtra state unit of BJP hasn’t been in the best of spirits off late. The Haryana victory will reenergise BJP’s workers and office-bearers, which will help the BJP set the momentum for the upcoming polls. Additionally, the outcomes have restored enthusiasm and faith in the party’s leadership and election strategy. There’s no doubt that the party will benefit from the renewed confidence and energy in the campaign.
The victory in Haryana will also impact the trust that the party creates in its followers as well as in indecisive voters who sit on the fence. In Indian politics, indecisive voters are often swayed by a bandwagon effect t— the perception that voting for a party that is winning increases the chance of being part of a government that can deliver. The BJP’s success in Haryana has bolstered the perception that it remains a winning force, despite critics questioning its dominance after the Lok Sabha elections.
Consolidation of Non-Dominant Caste Votes: The Jat-Maratha Parallel
Both states have similar share of population of Dominant caste voters (around 30%) and OBC voters (around 35%). One of the reasons for BJP’s success in Haryana (since 2014) was its ability to appeal to non-dominant castes and consolidate nob-dominant caste votes, thereby breaking the monopoly of Jat-dominated politics in the state. An alliance of non-Jat voters, which the BJP managed to form, proved crucial in a state that had historically been dominated by Jats who have always supported the Congress.
The political dynamic in Maharashtra is similar with regards to the politics being dominated by the Marathas who traditionally have been supporters of the Congress and NCP. Although traditionally the Maratha community has dominated politics, the BJP over the last few decades consolidated non-Maratha castes especially the OBCs.
Just as the BJP was successful in consolidating the non-Jat votes, the BJP could once again feel confident in charting out a similar strategy in Maharashtra where it could yet again build a coalition of non-Maratha voters, positioning itself as a party and a government that represents all sections of society (including Marathas as the BJP still has several imported Maratha leaders as well leaders of both alliances who are Marathas) against the Congress-NCP which is dominated by Marathas.
This social engineering strategy has the potential to reshape Maharashtra politics. Pankaja Munde will find increased prominence as BJP’s OBC face carrying forward the legacy of her father, Gopinath Munde.
Strengthened Leverage with Allies
The BJP’s victory in Haryana sends a strong and decisive message to its allies in Maharashtra, where it is in an alliance with the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The former is believed have been pitching hard to increase its pie of seats in the alliance while the latter seems non-committal about continuing in the alliance especially in the wake of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
In Haryana, the BJP contested all seats on its own and succeeded in securing a majority in the assembly without relying on any smaller party. This demonstrates the BJP’s capability to go it alone and win, a fact that significantly enhances its bargaining power with allies. However, the Haryana result places the BJP in a far stronger position in negotiations. It signals to Shiv Sena, and NCP, that BJP can thrive electorally without heavy dependence on allies.
Additionally, Jannayak Janata Party’s (JJP) loss in Haryana further bolsters BJP’s leverage. The JJP, which had played the role of kingmaker in 2019 elections by winning 10 seats, broke the alliance with BJP ahead of the 2024 elections. However, this time around, the JJP ended up not winning a single seat, demonstrating the risk smaller parties take when they break away from BJP. This example serves as a warning to the NCP in Maharashtra—leaving the BJP alliance could severely diminish their electoral prospects. The Haryana win, forces NCP to recognize that the BJP is still a potent electoral force and is likely to form the next government, making it more advantageous to remain aligned with the party.
This shift in power dynamics will likely result in a more favourable seat-sharing agreement for the BJP in Maharashtra, positioning it to contest and potentially win more seats.
Reinforcement in Modi’s charisma
After 2024 Lok Sabha results, critics were out with their knives declaring a beginning of the end of Modi-Shah’s dominance of Indian politics. Editorials had been written on waning Modi magic and declining fortunes of Shah’s political strategy.
BJP’s Haryana victory is an attestation to the enduring appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the political management of Amit Shah. The results have reaffirmed the dominance of Modi-Shah, and the party’s ability to deliver victories in seemingly challenging circumstances.
With Modi and Shah now back in form, this will have a strong psychological effect in Maharashtra for the party leaders, workers and voters. The state leaders and workers would exert more confidence in their leaders and the state electorate is more likely to view BJP as a stable and effective governing option, cutting through any anti-incumbency sentiment that may have been building.
In Maharashtra, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP have strategically focused their efforts on strengthening the party’s position in the state through regular engagements and visits. In the last few months PM Modi has visited the state multiple times, launching significant projects including inaugurating the Banjara community museum, agricultural infrastructure projects, new metro lines, Mumbai Trans Harbour Link, medical colleges, airport terminals amongst other initiatives.
Yet another Failed Relaunch of Rahul Gandhi
After the 2024 elections results and in the run-up to the Haryana elections, a significant PR push from the Congress attempted to project a narrative of Rahul Gandhi’s resurgence (yet again). The Congress, buoyed by its improved performance in a few states (despite not crossing three-digit mark), sought to capitalise on what it saw as a window of opportunity to reposition itself and its scion as a formidable national contender. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra was credited and publicised as a transformative political journey, aimed at reconnecting the party with the masses and reestablishing his leadership credentials.
However, the Haryana results are a stark reminder of how this relaunch narrative continues to fall flat every single time year after year from the year 2004 which saw Congress launch Rahul Gandhi for the first time. Despite the significant media focus on Rahul Gandhi’s revamped political strategy and Congress’s renewed optimism, the party failed to make substantial gains in Haryana. Once again, the Congress found itself overshadowed by the PM Modi’s appeal despite a competitive Lok Sabha performance in the state, demonstrating inability of Rahul Gandhi’s political narrative to influence voters.
While the Opposition had hoped to leverage any success in Haryana as momentum for Maharashtra, the result has highlighted that Rahul Gandhi’s appeal remains on paper and has not evolved into an effective election winning strategy. This is especially important in the context of Maharashtra, where Congress is still without a formidable face and would have hoped to leverage a Rahul Gandhi to take on the Shinde-Fadnavis duo. The inability to translate Rahul Gandhi’s leadership and rhetoric into electoral success reflects poorly on the Congress’ chances in Maharashtra. With every such failed relaunch, voters are reminded of Congress’ internal disorganisation and leadership vacuum, which in turn helps the BJP consolidate its position as the more stable and reliable force.
Beating Anti-Incumbency with Double Engine Sarkar
One of the primary strategies that helped the BJP overcome anti-incumbency in Haryana, and one that will almost certainly play a critical role in Maharashtra, is its ability to effectively publicise and take credit for its governance welfare schemes. Despite being the incumbent, the BJP was able to shift voter mood by highlighting its development programme and welfare initiative, which appealed to a large portion of the voters. The PM Awas and PM Kisan Samman Nidhi played an important role in increasing BJP’s voter base through the beneficiaries. Apart from development and welfare, BJP’s transparent job recruiting programme, in contrast to the previous notorious ‘karchi-parchi’ regime, resonated with voters and helped alleviate inflation and unemployment fears.
In Maharashtra, the BJP will similarly look to counter anti-incumbency by showcasing its achievements through these and other government programs. For instance, the PM Awas and PM Kisan Samman Nidhi ,Fasal Bima Yojana and Jal Jeevan Mission have been crucial for the agrarian and rural electorate, which forms a significant portion of Maharashtra’s voter base. The party’s ability to highlight the benefits of these schemes, particularly in addressing core issues like agrarian distress, water scarcity, and rural infrastructure, could sway undecided voters and mitigate any dissatisfaction arising from incumbency. In Maharashtra the Government has been focussing on job creation. In the last six months, over 75,000 posts in Maharashtra across various departments have been filled along with nearly 10,000 ITI graduates facilitated for jobs in Israel. Fadnavis has already announced creation of more jobs facilitating through private sector and with the creation of manufacturing hubs, several of which have already begun operations and many of them which have been announced and are in the pipeline.
To conclude, BJP’s unprecedented victory in Haryana, defying exit polls and critics alike, has revitalized the party and restored its image as an unbeatable political juggernaut under the leadership of Narendra Modi. The confidence it has instilled in voters, the morale boost it has provided to its cadre, and the consolidation of non-dominant caste votes mixed with BJP’s appeal, organisational strength, coordinated strategy, and election machinery provide the BJP with a winning formula that it is likely to replicate in Maharashtra. Moreover, the party’s increased ability to brand itself as the vehicle for good governance, development and progress is a major reason why anti-incumbency loses its edge in elections where BJP is the ruling party, a factor that will most likely play out in Maharashtra as well.
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