The month of October has begun on an ominous note for the world. Iran retaliated to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the supreme leader of Hamas and Hasan Nasrullah, the Hezbollah chief by firing more than 180 rockets and missiles into Israel on October 1. Though the Iron Dome Air Defence system could neutralise almost 90% rockets and missiles in air, still some damage has been reported to three military bases in Israel. Israel has vowed to punish Iran at a time and place of its own choice. Israel has been in conflict with Hamas from 8 October last year. Now it has launched ground offensive against Southern Lebanon which is like formal declaration of war. Israel has also taken some action against the Houthi rebels of Yemen. A full-fledged conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies is likely to spell doom for the West Asia and the world with immediate and long-term global consequences.
It all started with October 7, 2023 Hamas’ and other Palestinian militants deadly attack from the Gaza Strip into Southern Israel in which 1200 Israelis were killed and 250 were abducted. This dastardly attack is first major attack on Israel territory since the 1948 Arab- Israeli war. Israel Defence Forces (IDF) immediately declared a state of war and responded with an air strike on Gaza strip and followed it with ground attack. More than 100 hostages are still with Hamas and one of the aims of Israel to secure their release now remains doubtful. As per one report, almost 41,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israel military campaign so far and half of Gaza has been razed to ground. The entire West Asia has been on the edge post the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh on 31 July 24. The assassination of Hezbollah chief on September 27 through air raids on its headquarters near Beirut has completely changed the complexion of the conflict in West Asia.
West Asia is a subregion of Asia that is bordered by Europe to the west, Central Asia to the north and South Asia to the east. About 20 countries fall into the category of West Asia and Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwat, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Yemen, Syria, UAE are some of the prominent countries. More than half of the world’s oil reserves and about 40 per cent of the world’s natural gas is found in the region and thus the clout of these nations matters. Given the current situation, there is palpable tension in the entire West Asia and some TV channels are even predicting a third world war! With the killing of Hasan Nasrullah, the conflagration of this conflict covering most of West Asia is a clear possibility. The fast-paced chain of events of the last one week has subdued the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, at least for the time being.
One must understand Israel as a nation to fully comprehend the dynamics of the ongoing conflict. Israel the home of the Jews, stands at the cross roads of Europe, Asia and Africa. It is bordered by Lebanon and Syria to the north, West Bank and Jordan to the east, Egypt and Gaza Strip to the south and Mediterranean Sea to its west. With an area of just 22072 sq km and a population of just one crore, it is surrounded by enemies all around and its survival has always been a challenge. It has one of the most advanced militaries in the world. Israel has a conscription of 24 to 32 months compulsory military service, both for the men and women which makes the society fully attuned to national service and war fighting. The Jews have survived the holocaust of World War II and Israel has tremendous resilience and survival instinct when it comes to its own national interest. But Israel seems to have bitten more than it can chew as of now. The ground offensive, as the Russia-Ukraine war has proved tend to prolong and bleed you in the long run.
USA and Israel share a special relationship right from the time when USA was the first country to recognise Israel as a nation in 1948. Israel gained the confidence of the US after 1967 Arab Israeli war in which Israel defeated Jordan, Syria and Egypt in just six days war. This happened at the height of US-USSR cold war era and the USA was convinced that it had found a bulwark in Israel, against the Soviet influence in the West Asia. The Jews are a powerful business community in the US and the Americans seem to share affinity towards Israelis. Israel is also an undeclared nuclear power with the tacit support of the US. No wonder that President Biden immediately reaffirmed its commitment to Israel’s security against retaliation by Iran and the proxies. The western nations have also voiced their support for Israel. It may be noted that survival of the current Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu depends fully on the success in the war against all adversaries put together. He is proving to be successful wartime Prime Minister like Winston Churchill in second World War. It is difficult to define notion of victory for Israel but as the past events have proved, the challenge for Israel to keep the IDF motivated to fight are immense.
India’s foreign policy mandarins must be working overtime to study the situation unfolding in the region. There are close to 9 million Indians diaspora in the West Asia. India has already issued travel advisory to its people staying in Israel and the region. India has the additional dilemma because it shares close economic and strategic relationship with Israel. India also has major stake in the region’s oil and natural gas. So, India may have to tread carefully to navigate the troubled waters and be prepared to evacuate Indian diaspora in case of continued conflict situation. Iran has also serious differences with big players in West Asia like Saudi Arabia and Jordon who have a different view about the escalatory dynamics of conflict in the region. The oil prices have already shot up by four dollars per barrel and stock markets the world over have crashed. PM Modi has already appealed for peace and has spoken to the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The month of October 24 is going to be critical for the West Asia with attendant serious global consequences. Even as Israel has endured some military losses, it has succeeded in eliminating the Hamas and Hezbollah leadership to a large extent. Yet as the past has shown, new leadership of the Hamas and Hezbollah is likely to be even more radical and hardliner. With so many players involved in the great game of power dynamics, the complexities may conflagrate the West Asian region like never before. Immediate international intervention is the need of the hour before the situation spirals out of control. India may have to keep its guard up and be prepared to deal with any contingency including playing the role of peace broker in the region.
