The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is much ahead of its opponents in the Haryana State Assembly election. The aspect is discernible on multiple political parameters.
If we compare the performance of the BJP in the 2014 and 2019 Assembly elections, then the BJP seat share decreased in 2019 with respect to the 2014 Assembly election. However, it should be noted that the BJP vote share has increased in 2019 with respect to its 2014 Assembly poll vote share. In 2019, the BJP gathered 36.49 per cent of its vote share, with an increase of 3.39 per cent of its vote share, with respect to its 2014 vote share. In the FPTP voting system, it usually happens that with more vote share, a party can even get fewer seats. This has happened multiple times in the past in many States.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election the BJP got 5 seats and took lead on 44 Assembly seats of the 90 member House. As an individual party, the BJP vote share was highest in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP got nearly 2.50 per cent more votes than the Congress party in the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Haryana.
Besides an added advantage for the BJP is that in Haryana State has tradition of going with the ruling party at Centre. The BJP ruling dispensation at Centre is of utmost importance for the BJP.
The division of opposition votes in Haryana is going to be a big factor in the Haryana Assembly election. Since there is no any stiff anti-incumbency against the BJP Government in Haryana so, its need of the hour for the opposition parties to contest in alliance to give stiff fight to the BJP.
The opposition vote is going to split among multiple parties. The Aam Aadmi Party is going to pose a big challenge to other opposition parties, especially the Congress party, to garner anti-incumbency votes. In Gujarat, the AAP had completely divided the opposition vote, and the Congress party tally came down to 17 in the 2022 Assembly election from 77 seats in the 2017 Assembly election. The strong presence of the AAP has always been a big headache for the Congress party. In the 2022 Gujarat Assembly election, the AAP was in direct contest on 40 seats, winning 5 among these. In all 40 seats, the AAP had to contest with the BJP. It showed that the AAP replaced the Congress party on all these seats. On all these 5 seats on which the AAP won, the Congress party forfeited its deposit on these seats. This trend may happen in Haryana too. Sensing such a scenario, the Congress party forged an alliance with the AAP in Haryana in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, too.
Besides other political parties like the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) headed by Dushyant Chautala, Indian National Lok Dal headed by Abhay Singh Chautala and some other smaller parties are going to divide the anti-incumbency votes. It is going to be a big challenge for the main Opposition party, the Congress. Besides, rivalry among the Congress party leaders is also a big headache for the party and a blessing in disguise for the ruling BJP.
