The Haryana Vidhan Sabha election is scheduled to be held on October 1. The single-phased election for 90 seats of the Legislative Assembly will have almost two crore voters to exercise their franchise, the result of which would be declared on October 4.
As the electoral crescendo picks up in the State, which has already seen two consecutive terms for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) into power, there are mixed signals coming from the ground. Coming close on the heels of the last Lok Sabha elections there are new challenges for the BJP to retain power in the forthcoming Assembly election.
The shadow of the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections in which the BJP’s tally was reduced from ten seats to five seats, would certainly loom large as the campaigning progresses.
In 2014 Bharatiya Janata Party had an outright majority to run the Government with Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar at the helm. BJP had won 47 of the 90 seats while its NDA partner, Shiromani Akali Dal, bagged one seat.
But in 2019 BJP saw its graph plummeting, losing absolute majority in the Assembly. With 40 seats in its pocket, BJP cobbled an alliance with Dushyant Chautala-led JJP which had ten MLAs in its kitty and pulled through the five year term. The Assembly results had thrown up a hung House with no party able to cross the majority mark. If Bharatiya Janata Party won 40 seats with 36.49 per cent of votes, Congress captured 31 seats with 28.08 per cent of votes. JJP emerged as a kingmaker. Bharatiya Janata Party, however, broke ties with JJP in last March while effecting a change in the Chief Ministership as well. It clearly indicated that the party had sensed its declining popularity and was in for a course correction.
But the fact that the BJP high command had to withdraw Manohar Lal Khattar as a Chief Minister after his almost nine and a half years of term was a clear indication that the party wanted a new face to lead.
In the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections, this change of leadership was engineered to get Nayab Singh Saini as the Chief Minister and the party’s face for the elections. However, it failed to deliver the desired dividends in the Lok Sabha elections as the BJP, which had all the ten Lok Sabha seats in its bag lost five of them to Congress.
BJP’s vote share, which stood at 58.21 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, fell to 46.11 per cent even as Congress saw an upward swing from 28.31 per cent in 2019 to 43.67 per cent in 2024. The Assembly-wise split of the Lok Sabha elections demonstrated a clear lead for Congress. While Bharatiya Janata Party led in 44 of the 90 Assembly seats in the Lok Sabha election, Congress was a notch higher gaining a lead in 46 seats.
More so, while the BJP, in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, won all Assembly seats in as many as seven of the ten Lok Sabha seats, in 2024 it could only muster up support in one Lok Sabha seat, Karnal, losing all ends in the rest of the Lok Sabha seats.
Wooing Farmers
As the election inches up, Bharatiya Janata Party has been trying frantically to regain the lost ground with Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini taking a series of path-breaking initiatives to bring about administrative reforms and implement the public welfare schemes. One of the most outstanding initiatives has been the State Government’s decision to provide MSP to all the crops in the State. While earlier, 16 crops were covered under it, the Saini Government added eight more to cover the entire farming community. At a time when farmers have been up in arms in the region, the decision is expected to build positivity among farmers.
Bickering Within Congress
Though Congress, on the face of it, looks to be on the ascendance, yet one cannot overlook the fact that it has been a fiercely divided house. The bickering between various factions led by Bhupinder Hooda, Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala is an open secret in the State. Moreover, as Congress has tried to project itself only as a Jat-dominated party, this portrayal is expected to cost it dear in the elections. Moreover, the administrative irregularities committed by the Hooda Government during its ten years rule is still fresh in the minds of the people.
The AAP, on the other hand, has been also trying to make a foray in the State. In the last Lok Sabha election, it had an understanding with Congress following which the Kurukshetra Lok Sabha seat was allotted to it. Much to the surprise, AAP candidate Sushil Gupta lost to BJP’s Navin Jindal by a far too slender margin of 29,021 votes. This has given AAP a new hope to hit the State vigorously.
In case, the Congress and AAP weave an alliance for the forthcoming Vidhan Sabha elections, the challenge for the BJP can become far more formidable.
In the entire electoral scene, the near-decimation of the traditionally strong regional party, Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), led by Om Parkash Chautala has been a matter of grave concern. The party, which ruled the roost in Haryana, few years ago, is nowhere in the reckoning today.
