PM Modi’s ongoing visit to Ukraine and Poland marks the continuation of the relentless effort in Delhi to raise Europe’s profile in India’s foreign policy over the last decade. PM Modi has left for a two-nation tour starting August 21 to August 23. His first stoppage will be in Poland and then he will head for Ukraine.
The first part of the journey will include a two-day stay in Warsaw, Poland, and will then go to Kyiv. PM’s visit will plug a missing link — Central Europe in India’s European policy.
In his departure statement, PM expressed India’s hope for a swift return to peace and stability in the region. He expressed his anticipation of discussing a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine conflict with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
PM Modi’s visit to Kyiv comes nearly six weeks after his high-profile trip to Moscow which triggered criticism from the US and some of its Western allies. India has not yet condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has been calling for resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy. PM Modi’s visits acknowledge Central and Eastern Europe’s role in reshaping regional geopolitics.
The war in Ukraine has entered its third year now. Kyiv is on its offensive right now as it has entered into Russian territory. This is a pivotal geopolitical churn that Central Europe is going through, which has impacted the entire world. Can India afford to remain a passive bystander amidst the renewal of struggles in the Central European region? The answer is apparently “no”. This is why this visit is so significant.
PM Modi will be in Kyiv for around seven hours on August 23 in the first visit by an Indian prime minister to Ukraine since the country became independent in 1991. For India, this visit should be about setting the terms of a long-term engagement with Ukraine and Poland and on a macro level vis a vis Central Europe.
Delhi is aware that Ukraine and Russia have a long and shared common history and they know each other better than anyone. Russia is certainly not a peacemaker and has a leverage in the ongoing war and has all the means to reach the US. On the other hand, the Ukraine peace offensive is about winning friends to catch up to Russia. For now, India knows that its role of promoting peace is on the margins.
The Ukraine-Russian war is a repercussion of the breakdown of the post Cold-war political settlements between Russia and the West in Central and Eastern Europe. The nature of war termination in Ukraine will also determine how a new framework for new order in Europe will carve its path. With the rise of these powers, Ukraine will have a prominent place. This is going to be extremely beneficial for India, who seeks to intensify her European engagement. Ukraine can be the lynchpin. India’s outreach to these regional powers of Europe will build a good faith and India perhaps be perceived as important and en]merging long-term partners.
PM’s visit to Ukraine and Poland so soon after his visit to Russia underlines Delhi’s conviction that it does not view the relationship with Russia and Central Europe as a zero-sum game.
India’s European policy hitherto has been confined to the big four— Russia, Germany, France and Britain. Over the years, India has tried to widen it. For instance, PM Modi during his first two terms as PM traveled to Europe 27 times and received 37 European heads of government and state. The Modi government has revived the trade negotiations with EU, concluded the trade and investment agreement with EFTA group, established trade and technology council with Europe, embarked on regional security cooperation with Europe in the Indo-Pacific, and unveiled the India-Middle East-Europe corridor (IMEC) and so on and so forth.
Notably, India has commenced supplementing major power relations and begun collective diplomacy with various subregions of Europe, including the Nordics and Baltics. Last month, PM Modi visited Austria (the first in 41 years) is a fair illustration to this argument. Ukraine and Poland are a part of this strategy.
Although Ukraine’s economy is in shambles due to the war, the prospects of its reconstruction after peace settlement has put it on the geo-economic drawing board. Ukraine has inherited a significant part of the Soviet arms industry, and seeks to modernise its defence industry. Further, its natural strength as one of the world’s granaries adds to the strategic salience in the future.
Central and Eastern Europe have been marred by great power rivalries that lead to rearranging borders, dragged into the spheres of influence and become the victims of these power tussles. But in contemporary times, Central and Eastern Europe have greater agency to rewrite their own destiny.
PM Modi’s visit is to recognise this crucial change occurring in the heart of Europe and boosting India’s bilateral and multilateral political, economical and security ties both in depth and widening the scope with the Central European states.
India must have patience and be practical in its expectations with this ongoing visit. Historic visits are not one time events, PM Modi’s visit has set the path, the test begins now when this momentum needs to be maintained and sustained with the same spirit.
