Kerala is entering two consecutive polls for local bodies and assemblies in 2025 and 2026, respectively. The voting patterns in both elections are entirely different from each other and the 2024 Lok Sabha Polls. Normally, the Lok Sabha elections in Kerala are shaped by national politics. In contrast, elections to the local bodies and state assembly are influenced by the issues within the state itself. However, this trend has recently changed, especially since 2014, according to the interest of the Muslim vote bank in Kerala.
The Strategic Electoral Interest of Muslims in Kerala
When going through the electoral data of Kerala, it is apparent how various communities cast their vote in all past elections in the state. The Muslim community, which constitutes 26 per cent of the total population, had a fundamental question before them: how to prevent the BJP from capturing power in both the centre and the state. This core electoral interest leads them towards either the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by CPI(M) or the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress in various circumstances. This was evident in the recent election to the 18th Lok Sabha in 2024, in which UDF bagged 18 seats of 20 seats, and LDF and NDA held one each. The lion’s share of votes of the Muslim community was transferred to the UDF as a major opponent to the BJP at the national level, which also received Hindu and Christian votes on 8-year-long anti-incumbency and extreme Muslim appeasements by the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF government. This, in turn, caused an opposite reaction from Hindu-Christian communities, resulting in the boom in BJP-led NDA’s vote share to 20 percent, along with one seat in Lok Sabha. The same interest of Muslims was observed in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in which UDF secured 19 seats and LDF 1. At the beginning stage of this strategy in 2014, the Muslim community was confused and scattered, giving 12 seats to UDF and 8 to LDF.
During that time, there was an invisible alliance between Muslims and Christians in Kerala under the leadership of Kerala Congress (M) led by the late K. M Mani, former financial Minister of Kerala and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), respectively. Both parties were part of the Congress-led UDF. However, since the 2016 legislative assembly elections, a clear voting strategy has evolved among the Muslim community that began supporting UDF in the Lok Sabha and LDF in assembly elections. This made Rahul Gandhi more confident about seeking asylum in the Wayanad constituency in 2019. The Islamic support to the LDF was evident in their victory in the UDF-dominated areas like Malappuram, Kozhikode and Wayanad districts in the 2016 assembly elections. The same voting pattern was seen in the 2021 elections to the state assembly in which LDF voted to power for the second consecutive term, which was historical.
Similarly, in the last two local body elections in 2015 and 2020, LDF secured more seats than UDF and NDA. This means the Muslims in Kerala have a clear policy in national and state politics. When analysing the political psychology of Muslims, the fundamental electoral interest is to keep the BJP away from power in both the centre and state. More clearly, this voting pattern keeps Hindus out of political power. This interest has now expanded by including Christians since they protested against the unequal resource-sharing formula of ( 80 % to Muslims & 20 per cent to Christians) ruling parties in Kerala.
The meeting point of Communist – Islamic Interest
Why Muslims support Communists in the Kerala assembly elections is a natural question that arises here. There are mainly two reasons. Firstly, communists provide unconditional support to Muslims in their global and regional issues. This was seen when communists created a district (Malappuram) exclusively for Muslims in Kerala in 1969 and held a state-wide Hartal in 2006 in solidarity with Saddham Hussain of Iraq and recently for the Palestinian terrorist group, Hamas. Secondly, Muslims, especially the Muslim youth, are very much attracted to the communist policy of insulting Hindu culture, idols and rituals that exactly Islam practices in regions where they have a majority. There was not a single voice of protest that arose from the Muslim community organisations or religious leaders when lord Ganesh was insulted as a ‘ Myth’ by A.N Shamseer, the current speaker of Kerala, in 2023.
Similarly, the communist atrocities in the Sabarimala temple in 2018 were one of the core reasons that prompted Muslims to support LDF in assembly elections in 2021. This strategic voting might be repeated in the assembly elections 2026 amid unprecedented anti-incumbency against the LDF government. However, the current Muslim support for the UDF in Lok Sabha elections was part of their temporary national policy and might not be reflected in the 2026 assembly elections. However, this strategy will change when Muslims get a majority in the state, as we are witnessing through the Muslim League in Malappuram and Wayanad, Local parties in Jammu & Kashmir and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in Hyderabad. In that scenario, Muslims neither vote for LDF or UDF but for their party.
The entire Kerala is paying off
Since the so-called communist administration does not have any economic vision or developmental agenda, the unprecedented support of Muslims to CPI (M) reflects more religious interest than the national good or welfare of the state. They are purely driven by the Islamic interest well connected to global political Islam. If they think of the welfare and economic development of the state, they could not have voted or aligned with the outdated communist ideology in Kerala and Congress in the Loksabha elections. These alliances ultimately elected CPI(M) to power under Pinarayi Vijayan, an illiterate-unpopular leader with no economic vision, which brought Kerala into a severe financial crisis. This resulted in the ravage of the financial sector and other sectors, including education, law and order, etc. Now, what is happening in Kerala? All people, including those who rationally voted, are paying off for the mistake committed by the Muslim community in their religious interest. In short, the unique religious interest that ravaged the entire future of the state, especially the dreams of youth who are leaving God’s own country for a better future. Therefore, the situation in Kerala is both an example and a signal for the country to take appropriate actions to set a prosperous future.
