The outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, as indicated by K Surendran, the state president of the Kerala BJP, heralded an ideological shift in God’s own country. What makes this election distinct from 2019 is the change in voting patterns across the state. The population of Kerala, as we know, is politically divided among two political fronts namely, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by CPI(M) and the United Democratic Front (UDF) Led by Congress, which, as viewed by Hon’ble Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his speech at BJP headquarters, is prosecuting the people working for an ideology like nowhere else in the country. However, this time BJP secured a stunning victory in the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency, overcoming the decades-old narratives imposed upon the RSS and BJP. Not only in Thrissur but across the state, the BJP received an unprecedented welcome from the voters. The BJP-led NDA bagged 1 seat for the first time in the history with a 19.24 per cent vote share while the ruling party could secure 1 seat along with a 31.94 per cent vote share. As happened in previous elections, congress-led UDF as the second largest party, luckily captured 45.10 per cent and 18 seats this time, reflecting the strong popular discontent against the Pinarayi Vijayan-led left government.
Ideological Shift in Hindu Vote Base
The reason why this election is viewed differently from 2019 was the radical changes seen in the vote base of major political parties in the state. The notable shift was evident in the setback experienced by the CPI(M), the largest party in Kerala. Traditionally, CPI(M) has been considered a Hindu party, comprising mainly the Ezhava (OBC) SC, ST and a slight share of both Nair (Hindu General) and minorities. But since the last decade especially after 2014, the party has been shifting towards the Muslim communities with a strong belief in the base vote banks, the Hindu backward communities. The reason behind the shift is the rise of the BJP in the state notably, among the Hindus. However, despite the defeat in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the communist party voted to power in the state for two consecutive terms in 2021, further cementing the trust in the base Hindu vote bank.
This prompted the party to penetrate more into the Muslim communities, marking the beginning of the unprecedented appeasement and insult of Hindu culture and rituals. This appeasement heralded the emergence of a handful of Muslim leaders, notably, AM Arif, Ex-MP, AA Rahim, an MP, H Salam, an MLA, AN Shamseer, Hon’ble Speaker etc, within the party and attracted the Muslim fundamentalists notably, the Popular Front of India (PFI), who found the secularist guard of communist parties as safe hideouts. This resulted in the sidelining of a handful of traditional Hindu local and state leaders within the party structure coincided with the ambitions of Pinarayi Vijayan to be continued as Chief Minister and the efforts to make Muhammad Riyas, the son-in-law and the current PWD minister, as successor.
As a result, this election has seen an undercurrent from the traditional vote bank of CPI(M) to the BJP-led NDA, marking the beginning of a new ideological shift as opined by Shri. K Surendran, the BJP president of Kerala. This election was completely against an algorithm set by the communist parties which faced an unexpected defeat even in the party’s stronghold areas including Kannur, Alappuzha, Vadakara, Attingal, Palakkad etc. This has flared up discontent within the party and seen unheard-of criticism in public by the leaders, notably, Shri. G.Sudhakaran, five-term MLA and the former state committee member of the party.
Beginning of the anti-Pinarayi and Islamisation Movement
The growing discontent among the prominent leaders, who have been sidelined by Pinarayi Vijayan to retain his Chief ministership, include K. K Shailaja, former minister, EP Jayarajan, former minister, P Jayarajan, former district Secretary of CPI (M) Kannur, Dr: Thomas Issac, former finance Minister, etc., is leading the party towards an existential crisis in Kerala. Interestingly, G Sudhakaran, while giving an interview to a Malayalam media last week, made a comparison between CM Vijayan and Modi, saying, “Narendra Modi is a powerful leader, having a good cabinet team with no allegation of corruption in the last decade”, signalling an implicit criticism of left government led by Pinarayi Vijayan.
His statement that “a lion leads a thousand donkeys is better than a donkey leading a thousand lions ‘, was referring only to the leadership of Pinarayi Vijayan. Moreover, he agreed with the general view that CPI (M) lost its basic votes to the BJP for the first time, making Kerala a suitable land for the Saffron party. Similarly, while addressing a public meeting in Kannur, the opinion of P Jayarajan, “Party Should learn from the result”, is pointing out the CM and his dominance. Besides, strong discontent and criticism have been raised from the pro-CPI (M)social media platforms, reminding Bengal and Tripura. Many candidates and parties on the left front expressed similar opinions regarding the authoritarian nature of Pinarayi Vijayan and his hidden agenda to make his son-in-law as successor.
Moreover, the district executive committee of the Communist Party of India (CPI), demanded the resignation of CM. One of the notable comments was expressed by none other than Vellappalli Natesan, the General Secretary of SNDP Yogam, the organisation of the Ezhava caste, said, “The base vote of CPI (M) in Kerala comprises Backward communities, notably Ezhava, SC and ST. However, the unprecedented Muslim appeasement by the party forced these communities towards the BJP, which is a need of the time”. Hindus indeed voted communists to power since the formation of the state of Kerala. More than a hundred Hindus were martyred for the party. However, the party, which is marginalizing the Hindus for getting votes from the Muslims, is on the way to disintegration and collapse like what exactly witnessed in Bengal and Tripura.
Today, CPI (M), as a political party, has lost its credibility and relevance in Kerala many years ago. The ideological stand of the party in terms of economic policy has brought Kerala into the current stage of high unemployment and economic crisis. Similarly, the traditional Hindu comrades also realized the real face of the party, appeasing the minorities especially, the Muslims. This began as a movement against Pinarayi Vijayan and his son-in-law, Muhammad Riyas. However, the party still exists with the echo system created against BJP in the past and of course, the firm support from the Islamic fundamentalists. But this 2024 Lok Sabha election marked the beginning of the collapse of the communist parties and the emergence of the BJP as a major player in the political discourse of Kerala.
