Punjab is known for its own kind of politics. The Aam Aadmi Party got unexpected success in Punjab in 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Punjab. The AAP did not get any seat in National Capital Territory of Delhi but won 4 seats in 2014 in Punjab. The AAP till now won LS seats only in Punjab. The AAP contested three Assembly elections with the last two elections winning with a thumping majority but still did not open its account in NCT of Delhi.
Punjab is an example of the Congress party’s multiple faults. The State Congress fell victim to the whims and fancies of the Gandhi family in Punjab. The Gandhi family doesn’t like such leaders who have their own mass base or those who are capable enough of taking their own decisions. Capt. Amarinder Singh was one of such rare leaders in the Congress party.
The Congress party won multiple elections under his leadership in Punjab. Due to his popularity the Congress party also performed well in Lok Sabha elections in Punjab too. Due to Capt. Amarinder Singh the Punjabi community in NCT of Delhi and in Haryana too.
Since Capt. Amarinder Singh was a popular and democratically elected Chief Minister so he was a target of the first family of the Congress party since the advent of his tenure. The first family of the Congress party created such conditions that Capt. Amarinder Singh should be removed and they did the same even without considering its consequences of losing a significant vote base in the State.
In similar conditions several such leaders were removed at different point of time by even Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi too. In Karnataka in early 90s Rajiv Gandhi removed democratically elected CM Virender Patil with his acolyte S Bangarappa. In due process the Congress lost its core constituency of Lingayats in Karnataka.
In Punjab the Congress party met Waterloo and its CM Charanjit Singh Channi lost from two Assembly seats in the 2022 Assembly election. It was a verdict against the Congress party first family to unceremoniously remove Capt. Amarinder Singh.
The voters of Punjab taught Congress party a lesson in the 2022 Assembly election and the party won only 18 seats, less than one fourth of its 2017 tally. The AAP being the main Opposition in Punjab had cultivated the anti-Congress party sentiment in State and formed a government with more than its expected seat tally.
In Punjab this election is witnessing a new trend and four strong contenders are in reckoning on all 13 seats in State. The vote is going to divide on all 13 seats and on all seats the winner vote tally will be less and in this condition the party which continues its vote share can win any seat the election. In this condition the BJP has a fair chance of winning multiple seats in Punjab. The BJP has fielded Preneet Kaur, Hans Raj Hans, Sushil Kumar Rinku and many such leaders whose vote converge with the BJP vote in Punjab and the BJP will win many seats in the State.
The Congress party has much to lose in the State as Congress party won 8 seats in 2019 and even opening account of the party this time in Punjab seems tough for the Congress party. In 2019 LS poll the Congress party won 31 seats from three States of Punjab, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. In order to retain its seat tally of 2019, the Congress party should at least maintain the seat tally from these States.
The BJP is virtually going to start a new beginning in Punjab from this LS election. The BJP will be the main challenger to the Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab in the 2027 Assembly poll in State. The BJP will likely get a similar boost in Punjab which the party got in States of Tripura, West Bengal and Haryana.
