China and Russia have grabbed the world headlines as the Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met in Beijing at the Great Hall of the People, seat of power of the Chinese Communist Party. Putin received a grand welcome upon his arrival earlier in the day on his first foreign trip post winning the fifth term in office in March for wide ranging discussions with Xi to devise a strategic framework for the future of the partnership.
Putin’s two day visit comes at the backdrop when Russia has taken a firm grip on the war in Ukraine. Xi has just wrapped up his tour of Europe where he met with the President of France, as well as leaders of Hungary and Serbia, apparently both are on good terms with Putin.
The stance of Russia and China have been crystal clear since the moment both signed a “no limits” strategic partnership just days before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Over two years later, Russia holds command over majority of the Ukrainian territories. It is being reported that it is on the culmination of of a successful push both in the northeastern Kharkiv region as well as in the south of the country. Amidst this, the Chinese backdoor support in the war has been flagged as a major concern by the West, especially the United States. This is evident from the statements issued by the US Secretary of State Antony J Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet Yeller during separate visits to China last month.
Blinken mentioned that China was the top supplier of dual use items, including civilian and military applications. He further added that Russia would struggle to sustain its assault on Ukraine if Chinese support was absent from this equation. The US has been strongly speculating and believes that China has been supplying tech that is assisting Russia in building and constructing missiles, tanks and other arms and ammunitions.
It has been also observed that Russia’s import of machine tools, computer chips and other dual-use items from China have seen a step surge in the recent times. Similarly, the sale of Chinese logistics equipments like lorries and excavators to Russia have also significantly increased by four to seven times ever since the commencement of the war.
On the other hand, Xi in his recent talks with France’s President Emmanuel Macron and EU Commission chief Ursula von Der Leyen that he would snot set arms to Russia and also control the flow of dual-use goods to its military.
Following by hosting Russian President Putin to Beijing in the very subsequent week, Xi reasserted the bonhomie between the two countries. He stated that the met with Putin over 40 times and remained in close touch. This is Putin’s 19th trip to China since 2000.
Meanwhile, the West expects Xi to use his influence and leverage with Putin to end the war. While signing the strategic agreement to deepen and strengthen the bilateral relations with Russia, Xi said that both the sides agreed that a political settlement to the Ukraine crisis and believes that it was in the right direction. Putin, would want to end the war when the momentum is with him.
Mud slinging between the US and Russia-China have been a part and parcel of the geostrategical tensions. The US has left no stone unturned to depict that Sino-Russian ties as a marriage of convenience and has mocked the cartoonish notions of unbreakable ties between China and Russia.
The veiled attacks also comes from China as it criticises the US to pressurise Beijing to abandon ties with Moscow. The duo defend their relations as progressive and advanced interstate cooperation as does not endorse the Cold War era blocs or confrontational considerations.
The US has had a role in the evolution of the ties between China and Russia. The relations between the two started on the wrong foot. Mao Zedong visited Moscow after the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, he had to wait for weeks to meet Joseph Stalin which did to sit well with Zedong.
During the Cold War era, both China and Russia were rivals, they’re competing to gain an upper and to control the global communist movement. Tensions were on the peak during the 1960s, which in 1969 led to a brief border war. The tensions simmered after the death of Mao in 1976, yet remained frosty until the disintegration of the USSR in 1991.
In the post-Cold War era, economics have become the driver for Sino-Russian new strategic relations. China became Russia’s biggest trading partner and the largest Asian investor in Russia. China now perceives Russia as a hub of raw material and a valuable market for its consumer goods.
The West’s hostility towards Russia since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 has pushed Russia into the embrace of China. India has viewed that the West’s attitude is responsible for this relationship to become inevitable.
India has vowed the China-Russia axis as critical towards its defence ecosystem. Approximately India’s 60-70 percent defence supplies are from Russia, and in order for a smooth, regular and reliable supplies is necessary, especially when there are impending and abnormal border issues between India and China.
The West has been bandwagoning on the notion that India needs to stay cautious at a time when Russia is accused to join the Chinese camp and act as a junior or a sidekick of China. Also, India does not want Russian defence industry to suffer losses from the western sanctions, not at least it becomes completely self-reliant, i.e., in the short- to- medium term.
India is well aware that this bonhomie between China and Russia is certainly going to complicate India’s engagement with Russia. The question that what if there were to break out between India and China, who will Russia support? The 1962 war displayed that erstwhile Soviet Union’s position was not supportive of the Indian side. Moscow did support India during 1971 war. However, this is 2024, neither India is naive, nor Russia is the old Soviet Union.
