Lok Sabha elections in 40-seat Bihar will likely be on a set pattern. Since the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA has always won the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar with plenty of seats. In fact, since the 1998 Lok Sabha elections in Bihar, the Lalu Yadav-led team always remained on the back. Only in 2004, after the first Lok Sabha election after the division of the State of Bihar, did the RJD and its allies perform satisfactorily.
Bihar has a history of springing surprises with its verdicts in different Lok Sabha elections. In 1999 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Laloo Yadav lost from Madhepura and Patlipura Lok Sabha seats respectively, at the hands of Sharad Yadav and Ranjan Yadav. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, from the Hajipur Lok Sabha seat, Ramvilas lost to Ramsundar Das of JDU. On the same seat, Ramvilas Paswan also set records by winning the seat by the highest margin in the 1977 and 1989 Lok Sabha elections. Paswan surpassed his own highest margin record of 1977 in the 1989 Lok Sabha election. In the 1996 Lok Sabha election, Mufti Sayeed lost from Katihar as a Janta Dal candidate, coming in a poor third in votes after Tariq Anwar of the Congress party and Nikhil Chaudhary of the BJP. Mufti Sayeed later became the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir.
In this 2024 Lok Sabha election, in Bihar, the NDA has the upper hand not only due to its goodwill towards the BJP and Narendra Modi or the double-engine government but also due to the I.N.D.I Alliance’s Indecisiveness. In Bihar, first, the I.N.D.I Alliance took much time deciding the seats for division among themselves and then deciding the candidates. The Congress party again took a lot of time and decided on its candidates much later than expected.
Besides family-oriented politics within the I.N.D.I Alliance had brought them on backfoot. Laloo Yadav nominated two of his daughters for the Saran and Patliputra Lok Sabha seats. On the Patliputa LS seat, the Laloo Yadav family has lost the seat since its formation in 2009. Firstly, in 2009, Laloo Yadav himself and later, in two subsequent Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019, his eldest daughter, Dr Misa Bharti, lost. It was expected that Laloo Yadav might put Bhai Virendra or any other leader from his party from the seat, but Laloo Yadav should have taken a lesson from debacles.
Similarly, on the Saran Lok Sabha seat, which Laloo Yadav’s wife and former Chief Minister Rabri Devi lost to Rajiv Rudy, he had put his second daughter Rohini Acharya as I.N.D.I Alliance candidate against the same candidate who defeated his wife. We predict it will be an easy win for Rajiv Ruas against her mother.
Also, the Laloo Yadav family and Bihar Pradesh Congress Committee (BPCC) president Akhilesh Prasad Singh made a nexus and played selfish politics. Firstly, these two leaders had engineered that Kanhiya Kumar did not get a Congress party nomination from Begusarai and denied Congress party ticket to Pappu Yadav from the Purnia Lok Sabha seat. Kanhiya Kumar and Pappu Yadav are significant threats to Tejaswi Yadav’s political career. These two leaders have the potential to challenge Tejaswi Yadav as they are good orators and have better social outreach than Tejaswi Yadav. Even Tajaswi Yadav had asked voters in Purnia to either vote for the I.N.D.I Alliance or the NDA candidate but not to Pappu Yadav.
This stance of Tejaswi Yadav and the I.N.D.I Alliance angered the Yadav in Bihar, and the Yadav caste slowly concluded that the priority of Laloo Yadav’s family was its betterment rather than that of the caste. Putting two of his daughters as Lok Sabha candidates and opposing Pappu Yadav has completely changed the mentality of the Yadav caste, and they may vote on their second priority besides RJD and the Laloo family. In Lok Sabha elections in two previous elections, Yadavs have voted for the BJP, and many surveys and the results clear the NDA in bulk.
Tejaswi Yadav and the RJD will be questioned for a long for their opposition to Pappu Yadav and even call for voting for NDA rather than Pappu Yadav. The Laloo family’s political interests converge with those of BPCC president Akhilesh Singh. Akhilesh Singh is apprehensive of Pappu Yadav and Kanhiya Kumar as these leaders can potentially replace Akhilesh Singh as party chief in the State. Laloo Yadav publically declared that Akhilesh S Singh got the Rajya Sabha nomination from the Congress party in Bihar due to him. Akhilesh Singh’s son Akash Singh got Congress party candidature from Maharajganj Lok Sabha seat. This is the agreement between the Laloo family and Akhilesh Singh to promote the family to each other.
The amicable seat distribution among NDA parties and the earlier announcement of candidates have given much leverage to the NDA in Bihar concerning the I.N.D.I Alliance. The candidates of the NDA are much ahead of their rivals in most of the seats, and the NDA is all set to repeat its 2019 Lok Sabha performance. Kishanganj Lok Sabha seat, the sole seat won by the Opposition in Bihar in 2019, is at stake as both the NDA and the AIMIM candidates gave a tough fight to the Congress party MP Dr Md Jawed.
In NDA, the seat exchange among the parties is a lesson for I.N.D.I Alliance and others, too. The BJP gave its winning seat of Sheohar, Sitamarhi, to the JDU. The JDU gave its winning seats of Karakat and Gaya to Upendra Kushwaha of Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha(RLM) and Jitanram Manjhi of Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAM(S)). This shows the rapprochement among NDA allies. The RLM is its previous avatar, and HAM(S) was part of the Congress-led Mahagathbandhan. The LJP also gave its winning seat of Nawada to the BJP, which is also a lesson for other parties to follow and emulate.
