Thiruvananthapuram is one of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala. The seat has special significance as its message percolates in the entire State. Almost most of the capital cities’ politics have a domino effect on State politics too. Like all of the LS seats in Kerala, the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat has seven assembly segments. All seven Assembly segments of the seat fall within Thiruvananthapuram district.
The equation of Thiruvananthapuram is highly complicated for the 2024 LS election. Of the seven Assembly segments, six are in the kitty of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and only one seat of Kovalam is in the United Democratic Front (UDF) kitty as per 2021 State Assembly elections. If we go after the results of the seven Assembly segments of the Thiruvananthapuram LS seat in 2021 Assembly elections the position of the congress party is shaky on this seat. The BJP performance on the seat is appreciable on many counts. In three Assembly seats of Kazhakootam ,Vattiyoorkavu and Nemom the BJP remained ahead of the Congress party in the 2021 Assembly elections.
In the 2014 LS poll when the BJP lost this seat narrowly to the Congress party by margin of 15470 votes the BJP took lead on 4 of the seven Assembly seats within the constituency. The ACs on which in 2014 LS poll the BJP took lead were Kazhakootam ,Vattiyoorkavu, Thiruvananthapuram and Nemom. If we go after the trend of the 2014 and 2019 LS elections of Thiruvananthapuram LS seat then on four ACs of Kazhakootam ,Vattiyoorkavu, Thiruvananthapuram and Nemom the BJP remained strong.
The equation of this seat may turn around this time and many voters may switch their allegiance this time due to changed political circumstances in the State. Three term Congress party MP from the seat Shashi Tharoor is likely to face rebellion from his own camp. A section of his party supporters may desert him as he dared to put his candidature for the post of party president against Mallikarjun Kharge. Kharge was the official candidate of the first family of the party, the Gandhi family. A section of the Congress party is suspicious that in coming days Tharoor may challenge Gandhi family legitimacy within the party so they may either skip from voting or go for tactical voting in order to defeat Mr Tharoor. This may be a big chance for the BJP to open its account in this important southern State.
Due to its poor performance in the 2021 Assembly elections, the UDF failed to bounce back in power in the State for the first time since 1982. From 1982 to 2021, there was a rotatory system of governance in Kerala as the LDF and UDF changed power after a five year gap. The morale of the voters and sympathisers of the Congress party is low due to the poor performance of the party in 2021 Assembly elections. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the Congress party won only 21 seats by contesting on 93 ACs while the second lead party in UDF the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) won 15 seats by contesting on only 21 seats. The Congress party voters are worried due to the growing influence of the IUML within the alliance at the cost of the Congress party.
The poor performance of the Congress party has a very negative effect not only in Kerala but in the entire country as in 2019 the Congress party got 15 seats from Kerala. 30 percent of the Congress party seats in 2019 in the entire country came only from Kerala. It will be tough for the Congress party to maintain even its current seat tally if they don’t repeat their 2019 performance in Kerala.
The BJP candidate Rajeev Chandrasekhar, Union Minister has been putting a tough challenge to both the Congress party and the CPI candidates. Rajeev Chandrashekhar has multiple roots in Kerala so it’s easy for him to echo rapport with the locals.
