The politics in Uttar Pradesh have taken a new turn with the Rashtriya Lok Dal joining the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). It was a double blow to the I.N.D.I Alliance as the RLD, an important constituent, not only deserted the alliance but also joined the NDA too. In the recent past in Bihar in similar fashion the JD(U), being headed by Bihar CM, Nitish Kumar, also dealt a double blow to the I.N.D.I Alliance and joined the NDA. Off course, in West Bengal, the All India Trinamool Congress had only deserted the I.N.D.I Alliance but didn’t join the NDA. In coming days, many more parties are likely to join the NDA by deserting the I.N.D.I Alliance.
Western Uttar Pradesh was the fiefdom of Chaudhary family. Jayant Chaudhary’s grandfather, the late Ch Charan Singh, was the former Prime Minister of India. Late Ch Charan Singh was recently conferred the Bharat Ratna. Jayant Chaudhary’s father, the late Ajit Singh, was also a big Jat leader. He represented Lok Sabha several times besides becoming Union Minister in several ministries too. But it was also a big fact that the family political hold was declining election-by-election. Even Ajit Singh lost Lok Sabha election in 2019 from Muzaffarnagar and Jayant Chaudhary also lost familiar traditional seat of Baghpat in 2019 by the BJP candidates. In 2014 LS poll the BJP candidate Hema Malini defeated Jayant Chaudhary in Mathura, while in Baghpat, late Ajit Singh came on 3rd spot behind the BJP and the Samajwadi Party candidates. And after the demise of Ajit Singh Jayanat Chaudhary is in need of a strong political front to first gain his lost political ground and then further extend his political strength.
In last two successive Lok Sabha polls of 2014 and 2019 the RLD was not able to open its account in Lok Sabha. In 2009 the RLD won five seats while contesting only on 7 seats in alliance with the BJP. The RLD performance in 2009 clearly demonstrates that the RLD and the BJP are natural allies and they complement each other without any hiccup. In 2009 the BJP got only 115 seats which was the lowest tally of the BJP since 1991 Lok Sabha elections. Even then in alliance with the RLD the RLD seat tally was the highest since inception of the RLD in 1996.
In 2009 LS poll the BJP got 115 seats, which was higher than its tally only in 1984 and 1989 LS polls. The RLD best performance in Assembly election in UP was in 2002 when the RLD contested in alliance with the BJP. In 2002 UP Assembly election the RLD got 14 seats. Even though the BJP lost 2002 UP Assembly poll but the RLD performance was its best. So the RLD performance in Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections was only in alliance with the BJP.
Currently the RLD has 9 MLAs in Uttar Pradesh Assembly and one MLA in Rajasthan Assembly. The main votebank of the RLD is Jats. The Jats are mostly concentrated in western part of Uttar Pradesh. Besides in Uttar Pradesh Jats are also sizeable votebanks in Rajasthan, Haryana, and some other parts too. Jats are aggressive and vocal voters, and their voting also influences other non-committed voters too. Jats along with themselves, also brings other voters too. The importance of Jat votebank cannot be established arithmetically only but their impact lies more beyond that.
Though the Jats voting trend in recent times was for the BJP especially in Lok Sabha but alliance with the RLD will give the Jats more vigour to vote for the alliance. The Muslims also form important votebank of the RLD and now they will also support the NDA alliance in western UP in 2024 LS poll. Overall, the joining of RLD in NDA is a big development not only in UP but also in neighbouring States too.
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