Tamil Nadu has witnessed the biggest political upheaval in recent times. A large number of ex-MLAs & two ex-MPs of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). It’s a big shot in the BJP arm in Tamilnadu. Tamil Nadu is the largest among all the States in Southern India. Tamil Nadu has 39 Lok Sabha seats & along with Puducherry’s lone Lok Sabha seat, it carries 40 Lok Sabha seats.
The BJP in Tamil Nadu is in the same position as it was in the States of West Bengal, Haryana, Assam & Tripura. In Tripura, the BJP had not opened its account in the past, but in the 2018 State Assembly poll, the BJP formed a Government on its own. The main Opposition party in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK, is losing its steam day by day.
After Jayalalitha’s demise, the part is leaderless. The party is only the symbol of the Opposition to the ruling alliance in the State. In several other States in India, like West Bengal and in Tripura, such a kind of political vacuum in the Opposition camp took place. In Tamil Nadu, the masses are looking for a credible Opposition which puts their strong sound to the ruling dispensation. The AIADMK, in its present form, is completely unable to stand up to the expectations of the masses. If we compare the performance of the AIADMK, then its performance in the Lok Sabha election in 2019 was much below expectations. In the 2019 LS poll, the AIADMK won only one seat, while the AIADMK won 37 seats in the 2014 LS poll. It clearly shows that the AIADMK was not able to put itself as a viable alternative to the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in the State. The people of the State are looking for a viable and credible alternative, which is being represented by the BJP in the State under the able and dynamic leadership of K Annamalai in the State and at Centre by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, the AIADMK lost nearly 15 per cent of its vote share with respect to its 2014 Lok Sabha poll vote share and lost 36 of the Lok Sabha seats. The plight of the AIADMK may be assessed from the fact that it established a lead only on 12 assembly segments during the 2019 LS poll. It clearly shows that people in Tamil Nadu do not consider AIADMK to be a viable alternative to the DMK. The BJP garnered a lot of votes from the AIADMK, which got 19 per cent plus votes in the 2019 LS poll. The AIADMK lost nearly 25 per cent of the vote share from the 2014 LS poll to the 2019 LS poll. In the Lok Sabha poll, the AIADMK vote share decreased from nearly 45 per cent to nearly 19 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll.
In this scenario, the people may vote for the BJP. The AIADMK’s late supremo and mass leader, J Jayalaitha, had a cordial attitude towards the BJP and toward its leader and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The voters having inclination toward Jayalaitha may vote for the BJP in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election as it is the party which is close to the late J Jayalaitha ideology.
The BJP had the knack to fill such a vacuum in the political sphere in many States. In the past, the BJP filled itself in such circumstances in many States. West Bengal and Tripura are such States. The Opposition parties, the Communists and the Congress party were not able to present themselves as credible Opposition to people’s expectations. The BJP, in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll in West Bengal, stood to the people’s expectations and won 18 Lok Sabha seats. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the BJP won 77 seats, while the party had only 3 MLAs in the previous Assembly. The BJP is all set to repeat its West Bengal episode in Tamil Nadu too. In the forthcoming 2024 Lok Sabha poll, the BJP will start a new chapter in Tamil Nadu politics. In Tripura, before the 2018 Assembly poll, the BJP did not win any seats, but in the 2018 Assembly election, the BJP won 36 seats and formed a Government on its own.
In the Lok Sabha poll, Tamil Nadu goes with the national sentiment in most cases. In the 1998 Lok Sabha poll, the BJP headed NDA won 30 seats. In the 1999 Lok Sabha poll, a similar trend was repeated, and the NDA won 26 Lok Sabha seats and followed the national pattern again. Of the 26 seats, the BJP tally was 4 in Tamil Nadu. The NDA won a majority of the seats in the 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha polls even though the composition of the alliance had changed. In 1998, the AIADMK was the partner, while in 1999, the DMK was in NDA. In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA got no seats as the NDA was defeated at the national level, too. Again in 2009, Tamil Nadu followed the national trend, and the UPA won all 39 seats from Tamil Nadu. In the 2014 LS poll, Tamil Nadu assessed and followed the national trends and inflicted a crushing defeat on the UPA.
The AIADMK won 28 seats against the UPA. The Congress party contesting on its own without any alliance won no seat and got a paltry 4.3 per cent of votes. It is worth mentioning that in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, when the Congress party contested on its own, it was a runner on only one seat of Kanyakumari. The Congress party vote tally on all seats was in single digits, but on Kanyakumari and Sivaganga Lok Sabha seats. The Congress party forfeited deposits on all seats in Tamil Nadu in the 2014 Lok Sabha but on the Kanyakumari seat. So for national politics, the Tamil Nadu preference will be the BJP and the NDA. The BJP is preparing itself strongly for the 2024 Lok Sabha poll in Tamil Nadu with the rainbow coalition in the NDA banner with several parties, AIADMK(OPS), Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazagam (AMMK), Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi (IJK), TMC(Moopnar), and PNK. The NDA coalition size is likely to increase as the elections will come to close.
The BJP is getting more impetus from the neighbouring Union Territory of Puducherry, where the BJP is sharing power with the regional outfit AINRC. It should be mentioned that after the formation of AIADMK, the party first formed the Government in Puducherry. Besides forming the Government in Puducherry, the AIADMK won the Dindigul Lok Sabha by-poll in 1973, inflicting a severe defeat on the DMK and INC(O). The BJP will replicate the AIADMK formula of Puducherry in Tamil Nadu too.
