There are a few essential differences between the BJP and the Congress, both in terms of electoral strategies and electoral acceptance. An adjective analysis of these can ultimately drive home the point of how and why the saffron party can steal the thunder in the ultimate in the keenly watched Karnataka polls.
First, let us examine the ‘chief campaigner’ or ‘vote garner’ factors closely – that is PM Narendra Modi on one hand and the former Congress MP, Rahul Gandhi, on the other.
Interaction with voters in recent weeks in Bengaluru, Mysuru and Belgaum suggested that between PM Modi and Rahul Gandhi – one is an ‘asset’ and a gamechanger. And other may be an ‘asset’ but hardly a gamechanger. The Congress leader comes in the second category.
Voters in these politically well-informed segments said between BJP and Congress, the ‘local factor’ is a crucial factor.
“For the Congress the ‘local factor’ is an asset and could be a gamechanger; but for BJP the local factor has the liability of incumbency. PM Modi is the gamechanger and it is the ‘Modi magic’ that has the power to beat anti-incumbency factor,” says Ritin Sri Kumar of Bengaluru.
This ‘difference’, according to voters in Belgaum, could play a decisive role to influence the outcome on the votecount day.
There is another factor which the national media has so far ignored to appreciate. The soft loans being made available to individuals have won admirers for PM Modi and the BJP in an atmosphere wherein people realise that Government jobs are no longer like in the past.
For instance, the Government-run Karnataka Minority Development Corporation has also helped many individuals.
Sources say just for conditions like being a resident of Karnataka State, belonging to a minority community and age between 18 and 55 years, and the applicant is not a previous’ defaulter of KMDC’, a loan upto Rs 20 lakhs on 4per cent interest rate is given. These will be important factors in the elections too.
“The general mood in many areas is to vote for the BJP. But more than the performance or acceptance of the sitting legislators; what counts more here is the ‘Hindutva sentiment’ and people’s admiration for Prime Minister Modiji,” says shopkeeper Satis Norenki.
Identifying himself as a member of the underdeveloped community, he describes himself as a “die-hard BJP supporter” but laments that the performance of local legislators and other ministers were far from satisfactory.
The ‘Hindutva slant’ is a clear issue many people are talking about. But no one goes apologetic.”People are proud of Hindutva,” says an auto driver in Mysuru. The row over Bajrang Dal, as generated by Congress lately, is only a self-goal, many say.
The BJP poll managers in the Shimoga-Belgaum stretch feel the party can hold on to its traditional support base among upper castes, especially Brahmins and Lingayats.
They are trying to win over some neglected caste groups. “Votes have been decided and we all are Narendra Modi fans” – being the refrain in many segments among common people.
In contrast, for Congress supporters, the real factors that can come in favour of the grand old party are the local candidates. Even a Congress supporter said, “The Hindus have good reasons to believe that former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah generally favoured Christians and Muslims and often ignored Hindu sentiment. “But as we like our Congress candidate, we may still vote for her,” says one of them in support of a woman Congress candidate.
The Congress is also hoping to gain from ‘non-Kannad’ voters, including those from North India. “In Uttar Pradesh we have voted for Yogi Adityanath and the BJP….Karnataka is a strange and new place for us. We are yet to make up our mind,” says a fruit seller.
The Karnataka elections always have the JD-S of former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda as a key player.
However, in the run up this year’s polls, local analysts believe the support base of Deve Gowda and his son, former CM Kumaraswamy is on wane. The refrain being thus this party may not win more than 20-25 seats as against 37 in 2018.
Mysuru-based retired Tehsildar Kishore Prakash says, “The national media and especially the electronic media are missing out certain important messages from Karnataka voters. Right from 2018 assembly polls, the BJP has been experiencing gains on ground and seats in assembly polls. Moreover, the Lotus party swept the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in the State”.
He pointed out that in 2018 – the BJP gained as many as 64 seats from its tally of 2013, while Congress suffered a loss of 42 (as against 122 in 2013), and JD-S lost three seats. In 2019, the saffron party had managed to win as many as 25 Lok Sabha seats from Karnataka, while the Congress suffered a loss of eight seats and could manage to win only one.
The BJP supporters also feel this winning trend will continue, and all expertise and so-called opinion polls would only come a cropper.
Now, take the words of a Muslim voter in the Shimoga area. “The Congress has to fight it hard. A BJP win with convincing margin will be also a sign that Hindu voters are continuing to rest their hopes on PM Modi to deliver the hegemony of their brand of politics,” observed Qasim Akram at Dharwad, an assembly segment that houses sizable Muslims.
There is also admiration for PM Modi among students and women who endorse his concept of Double Engine.
“No national media earlier took so much importance in Karnataka assembly elections. The Prime Minister has changed politics because he is a doer,” says Krishna Raman, a commerce graduate who got a loan of Rs 5 lakh and is now able to run his small cafeteria.
