General Election 2024: Bengal, Odisha and Telangana – focus of BJP strategies for ‘Mission 400 plus’

New Delhi: The BJP has its plans drawn for Mission 2024. First, the target is quite ambitious – 400 plus in the 545-member lok sabha. The party’s core group for poll strategies will now include three organisation men – Sunil Bansal, Tarun Chugh and Vinod Tawde.

In overall management will be BJP president JP Nadda and Home Minister Amit Shah, also a former BJP Chief. The Home Minister was the architect of BJP’s illustrious poll victory in Uttar Pradesh in the 2014 lok sabha polls and some key States later. These have changed the politico-electoral games in the country permanently.

“We are used to winning elections now, and you know pretty well who are regular losers,” said a key poll strategist.

In terms of ‘focus States’ for the saffron party’s 2024 battle will be Mamata Banerjee ruled West Bengal, Naveen Patnaik ruled Odisha and Telangana in the south.

While the North East as a block is crucial for the 25 lok sabha seats, Odisha has 21, and with West Bengal’s 42, it comes to 88 seats.

These 88 seats would be very important from the 2024 polls’ point of view. In 2019, the saffron surge resulted in victories for BJP in 40 seats.

Telangana sends 17 lok sabha members, and in 2019, the Lotus party did well to pick up four seats — a neat gain of three over the 2014 performance.

Importantly, the BJP vote share in Telangana was 19.45 per cent as against 29.48 per cent by Congress and 41.29 per cent by B Chandrasekhar Rao’s TRS — which is now renamed as Bharatiya Telangana Samithi.

However, Rao could not push his party on the national electoral canvas despite high ambitions and sincere efforts from time to time. The BJP has set a higher number of seats from Telangana in 2024.

The law of the average suggests the saffron party will face stiff challenges in some northern and western States. Sources said the BJP had done well in assembly polls in 2017 and 2022 in Uttar Pradesh and is pretty strong in Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujarat.

Nevertheless, the BJP poll strategists are working overtime to make significantly deeper penetration in the North East, especially in Odisha and Telangana.

In 2019, the BJP, on its own, could manage to cross the psychological 300 mark and could pick up 303 seats.

Since 2020, Tarun Chugh has been assigned to work for the party in Telangana.

The saffron party has made deeper penetration in the State that was created during the UPA stint in 2014 but with crucial support from the BJP. Lately, some internal dynamics have changed in Telangana as one time cabinet minister in the KCR regime Etela Rajender has joined the saffron party.

Onground report from Telangana suggests the BJP has emerged as a principal challenger to BRS, and lately, the Munugode by-poll makes it clear that the Lotus party has been able to make an impact in South Telangana, comprising the Nalgonda and Khammam districts. Analysts say the BRS victory was largely facilitated by the transfer of Left votes.

In order to ensure deeper penetration in Telangana, the BJP is eyeing former Congress leaders and others. However, insiders say some conditions will apply to allow entry, including a corruption-free record, utmost faith in the BJP’s ideology and commitment to Narendra Modi’s leadership.

Sunil Bansal, in the past, has helped BJP score convincing victories in 2017 and 2022 in UP assembly polls and also in the 2019 parliamentary elections.

Bansal is catering to key states such as West Bengal and Odisha. He visited West Bengal in August 2022, and since then, the saffron party has been witnessing a revamp movement.

Vinod Tawde is a cool organiser from Maharashtra, and in early 2000 he catered to the party’s Mumbai unit.

In 1995-96, he served the Maharashtra BJP as its general secretary (organisation).

Tawde will be functioning as a convener of the key panel that will identify the candidates, where BJP nominees were in second position. These three leaders will also plan strategies and outreach programmes
to connect with the electorate.

Meanwhile, in another development, the party strategists are planning a major outreach programme at the mass level in western Uttar Pradesh. Some programmes will be organised at the earliest at Muzaffarnagar.

The western parts of Uttar Pradesh have been crucial for BJP’s win in the 2014 lok sabha polls, where the party could pick up all 18 seats from the region. However, in 2019, the alliance of the Samajwadi Party and the Mayawati-led BSP did leave an impact in five seats.