On Tuesday, the opposition and the ruling party announced the names of their respective candidates for the upcoming Presidential Polls. While the opposition parties picked former Union Minister Yashwant Sinha as their joint candidate, the BJP-led NDA announced former Jharkhand Governor and tribal leader Draupadi Murmu as their candidate for the Presidential polls.
The opposition parties selected Yashwant Sinha’s name after NCP chief Sharad Pawar, NC chief Farooq Abdullah and Mahatama Gandhi’s grandson Gopalkrishna Gandhi opted out of the presidential race.
Now, with both names being announced, let’s take a closer look at their chances at the elections, which will decide the 15th president of the country.
Presidential Election Focus on ‘Value Of Voter’:
Different values are attributed to Members of Parliament and Members of the Legislative Assembly. An MP’s vote has a set value of 700, which is determined by dividing the sum of the votes cast in all the states and UTs by the total number of MPs who were elected. Since there are 776 MPs and 5,43,200 total votes according to the ECI, each MP’s vote is worth 700 votes (5,43,200/776).
Depending on the state from which an MLA is elected, their vote has different weightage. The population of an MLA’s state and the size of its Legislative Assembly determine the worth of their vote. The figure is calculated using a formula that ensures consistency: the state’s population is divided by 1,000 times the size of its Legislative Assembly.
This means the population which is undertaken for this process is based on the 1971 census. For example, suppose we intend to calculate the value of vote that an MLA from Uttar Pradesh will have. In that case, we will use UP’s population data from the 1971 census, which was 8,38,49,905 and the strength of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly which stands at 403.
Presently, at 208, MLAs from Uttar Pradesh have the highest value assigned to their votes, while Sikkim has the lowest, which stands at seven.
Number Game In Favour Of BJP:
As per the present dynamics, The total value of votes of the electoral college is 10,98,882; hence 5,49,442 votes are needed to reach the majority mark. The NDA alliance has 5,31,442 votes, which is around 48.3% votes. For the BJP, the fight is for the remaining 1.7%.
The BJP-led NDA could prove its majority if two regional parties — Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and YSRCP support them.
With the BJP-led NDA announcing Draupadi Murmu as its candidate, the support of BJD is almost secured, which means that BJP will comfortably cross the magic mark even without the support of YSRCP.
While on the other hand, UPA, led by the Grand old party has 25% of the votes.