In International Politics there is no Friend or Enemy but it is only National Interest. What other countries do strategy counter measures and future threat assessments on their enemy countries can be useful for our National Security too. There was a time when Nations were parochial and looked inside but now the time has come where in an interconnected and interlinked world you cant escape from international events either Climate Summit, Terror Summit or UN Summits or Regional summits as they all have ramifications on Nations bilateral regional and global issues. Recent example after Bio Health War of Covid-19 to COP 26 to G 20 to SCO where presence is a must then absence.
The Pentagon’s “Military and Security Developments involving the People Republic of China 2021 Annual Report to be seen by Congress with a whooping Cost $171000 or Indian Rs 1,26, 87,447 exposes China’s “Wolf War Diplomacy.” Its aim of expansion domination binding and dictation to neighbors to be with them or not? If not with them they will have to face land, air and water encroachment to army build up and psychological threats has been clearly highlighted. The concept of “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049 creates ruckus and misunderstanding in the region to the extent that as a saying goes in Mongolia that Day before Yesterday Macau, Yesterday Hong Kong, Today can be Taiwan Tomorrow will be Mongolia or it can be any nation surrounding China?
The Report says China is the only competitor capable of combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to mount a sustained challenge to a stable and open international system. After 2017 General Secretary Xi Jinping laid out two PLA modernization goals during his speech to the 19th Party Congress “basically complete” PLA modernization by 2035 and to transform the PLA into a “world class” military by 2049. In 2020, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced a new milestone for PLA modernization in 2027 broadly understood as the modernization of the PLA’s capabilities to be networked into a system of systems for “intelligentized” warfare. Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) was taken.
The 2015 2020 13th Five Year Plan of China emphasized strengthening Party loyalty, implementing doctrinal reforms, accelerating military modernization, and improving war fighting readiness. In the rollout of the PRC’s 14th Five Year Plan (2021-2025), the Party announced a shift to a new “development pattern” of “dual circulation (双循环).” Dual circulation is focused on accelerating domestic consumption as a driver of economic growth, shifting to higher-end manufacturing, and creating “breakthroughs” in key technologies along critical high-end global supply chains, all while emphasizing “mutually reinforcing” foreign investment in these key technologies to provide the capital and technology necessary to advance domestic technological innovation in support of the PRC’s security and development objectives.
The Total Capacity of active Force of China Army is 975000, Navy: largest navy with 355 ships and submarines, including 145 major surface combatants. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and PLAN Aviation together constitute the largest aviation force in the region and the third largest in the world, China with nearly 2,800 total aircraft (not including trainer variants or UAVs) of which approximately 2,250 are combat aircraft (including fighters, strategic bombers, tactical bombers, multi-mission tactical, and attack aircraft). In October 2019, the PRC signaled the return of the airborne leg of its nuclear triad after the PLAAF publicly revealed the H-6N as its first nuclear-capable air-to-air refuelable bomber.
Here are the China’s Rocket Force
System Launchers Missiles Estimated Range
ICBM 100 150 5,500km
IRBM 200 300 3,000-5,500 km Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile
MRBM 250 600 1,000-3,000km Medium Range
SRBM 250 1000 300-1,000km Short Range
GLCM 100 300 1,500km Ground Launch Cruise Missile
The Western Theater Command is oriented toward India and counterterrorism missions along China’s Central Asia borders. The Western Theater Command is geographically the largest theater command within the China and is responsible for responding to conflict with India threats in western China. PLA units located within the Western Theater Command include Two group armies, Two military districts, Three air force bases, and One rocket force base. PAP units responsible for Xinjiang operations are also likely under the control of the Western Theater Command.
One Important factor to be noted is Regional Comparison of Official 2021 Defense Budgets. China (Official Defense Budget) $209 billion dollars, India $64.8 billion dollars, Japan $55 billion dollars (Japan Population nearly 13 Crore), Russia (National Defense Budget) $66.8, South Korea $48 billion dollars (Population nearly 5 Crores and above), and Taiwan $15.4 billion dollars. The East Asian Countries are under Arms Race and open attack on Japan by China of telling we will use Nuclear against Taiwan intervention makes region nervous and fear?
A factor to be noted was in the Year 2020 China's Top Crude Oil Supplier from Middle East were Saudi Arabia 16%, Iraq 10%, Oman 7%, Kuwait 4%, UAE 3%, Iran 3% that is 43% Oil sourced. Russia delivered 15%, from Africa Angola 9%, Brazil 8%, Colombia 3% and others 21%. China more than its 57% of its Oil dependence is outside middle east. So any Conflict or ramifications can be curtailed by improving other sources.
This Year’s Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community Office of the Director of National Intelligence April 2021 had also said although a general war between India and Pakistan is unlikely, crises between the two are likely to become more intense, risking an escalatory cycle. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations, and heightened tensions raise the risk of conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints.
Finally one can say that China has become dangerous to all its neighbors. Its state policy of expansion control and dictation with wolf war diplomacy is creating regional and global crisis? China is now building artificial villages for civilian and military purposes in the borders (Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) and using next generation technology in the borders with last mile connectivity of Fiber. Its command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance on Indian Borders was really worrisome. All the nations have the capacity and caliber to counter China’s ambitions if it is violent dirty and dangerous. But if a peaceful democratic nations act in one voice China will be under shackles? The question comes for the world is when China attacked and conquered Tibet world was silent? If tomorrow if Taiwan is attacked should world sit and watch or attack the Communist Military Authoritarian State is the question? Regime Change will become the next topic will be seen….