Post-poll Hinducidal violence wrecking West Bengal is not hitting news channels. Mainstream media have perhaps marked such incidents as new normal in West Bengal. Since 1967, West Bengal ever witnessed Leftist Politics which Mamata Banerjee is the current representative face off. Hindu Nationalism appeared to have been strategically subjugated in Bengal which took a spurt again in the 2019 Loksabha Election & continued in the 2021 Assembly too. Present Bengal violence is manifesting itself as a methodical approach to suppress the rise of that subaltern Hindutva that’s back again in West Bengal since 2019. While media is busy calculating whether Mamata Banerjee would be the most suitable PM face for a united opposition in the 2024 Loksabha election, it is required to look at West Bengal’s booth wise data to identify who is being assassinated in which booth & what could be the most probable cause thereof.
As Arindam Middye of Falta Assembly Constituency was slain on May 16, Anil Barman of Booth No. 2, Hokdaha Adabari S.S.K. Centre, of Sitai Assembly Constituency, Coochbehar was also slain on May 30. Anil Barman was s/o DOGA BARMAN with serial no. 832 in voters’ list of Booth 2, Sitai. Why was Anil Barman’s body found hanging from the tree? That he was a dedicated BJP man was not perhaps the only reason. As per voters’ list, the total number of voters of Booth 2 was 1169 out of which the number of Muslim voters were 261 & Hindus 908. Out of the total 1002 votes as per ECI, 997 were valid votes making the valid voter turnout of Booth 2 to be 85.29%. Given below are the number of votes cast in favour of different political parties.
It would be statistically unbiased to assume 85.29% of both Hindus & Muslims cast their votes (though in reality, it is possible that voter turnout of Muslims & that Hindus varied keeping the average at 85.29%). This implies 85.29% of the total 908 Hindus = 774 Hindus & 85.29% of the total 261 Muslims = 223 Muslims cast their votes in this booth. Out of all these valid Votes, BJP got 557 while TMC got 405. These 405 votes of TMC, it wouldn’t perhaps be irrational to assume, included 223 Muslim votes leaving only 405 – 223 = 182 Hindu votes in TMC’s account. This further implies BJP captured Hindu votes more than 3 times of TMC in Booth 2. In this booth, BJP alone got 71.96% of estimated valid Hindu votes defeating TMC blatantly. May Anil Barman’s assassination, hence, be interpreted to be out of frustration of loss & a morbid spree for revenge against defeat?
Keeping Anil Barman’s death at the backdrop, it would be pertinent to refer to the electoral performance of Sitai Assembly Constituency in two consecutive elections previous to the 2021’s. In the 2016 Assembly Election, TMC garnered 47.39% of electoral dictates followed by 35.82% by Congress & 12.74% by BJP. In 2019 Loksabha, TMC garnered 54.74% votes in Sitai Vidhansabha Kshetra followed by BJP in the second position having 39.33% vote share and Congress managing 1.98%. In 2021 Assembly Election, TMC got 49.42%, BJP 45.18% and Congress 1.66%. (Source: ECI) The trend showed BJP grew in Sitai capturing Congress’s votes in 2019 while in 2021, the saffron party snatched votes share of TMC & grew from 39.33% to 45.18% facilitating fall of TMC from 54.74% to 49.42%. This further shows TMC lost 5.32% vote share between 2019 & 2021 while BJP gained 5.85% in the same period in Sitai. BJP gained more than what TMC lost proving BJP gained steadily over all other political parties in Sitai. The final dictate, however, still went in favour of TMC. Booth no. 2 of Anil Barman may be assumed to be a representative booth of this steady gain of BJP in Sitai except amongst minorities. Have dedicated BJP warrior Anil Barman been targeted by goons to threaten the general mass who electorally shifted to BJP? Spine-chilling threats against BJP voters in general—– that’s what the objectives of such murders are? Legitimate question.
Bongaon Dakshin: A Near-border Assembly of North 24 Parganas
India couldn’t stand the viral video of gory violence of area near booth no. 67 under Bongaon Dakshin Assembly Constituency. Bewildered viewers of the video helplessly bombarded questions over Social Media why’re State Police silent, why’s GOI silent, who’re the goons, how could they ravage the State with this level of violence? Though all questions remained grossly unanswered & media-silence was deafening, election result of booth 67 may provide insight to identify the real reason behind it.
Bangaon Dakshin Assembly Constituency has elected BJP even this year while in 2019 Loksabha Election, BJP got whooping 53.79% share of total votes casted in this Vidhansabha Kshetra. TMC then bagged 39.2% votes. In the 2021 Assembly Election, BJP’s vote share came down to 47.07% while TMC’s vote share grew up to 46.11%. BJP in this Assembly still had a victory with a narrow margin. The total number of voters of booth 67 is 1348 out of which 1074 voters cast their votes making the average voter turnout of booth 67 to be 79.67% in the 2021 Assembly Election. While BJP lost 6.72% vote share in Bongaon Dakshin, TMC gained 6.91% between 2019 & 2021. In spite of this growth of TMC, what could be the reason behind the gory attack against the men of booth 67? Numerical feedback is interesting.
BJP’s votes grew by 41.54% over a period of 5 years from 2016 to 2021 in booth 67 while TMC’s votes eroded by 9.06% during the same. Though TMC appeared to have grown by 6.91% in Bongaon Dakshin Assembly Constituency within the truncated period between 2019 and 2021, it has degrown in the last 5 years in booth 67 which is a 100% Hindu booth. 60.15% votes of booth 67 went to BJP while TMC got 35.75% votes. This corroborates majority Hindu Consolidation behind BJP in booth 67 which appears to be the real reason behind the savage attack upon Hindu men of this area out of political vengeance.
After observing voting pattern & voter turnout in an all-Hindu booth (booth 67), it would be pertinent to compare its result with that of a Muslim majority booth of the same constituency. Booth 1 of Bongaon Dakshin has 1526 voters in totality out of which 180 are Hindus and 1346 are Muslims. The number of valid votes in this booth has reportedly been 1356 (ECI) making valid voter turnout 88.86%. Given below are the number of votes cast to different political parties. (ECI)
It would be statistically unbiased to assume voter turnout of both Hindu voters and Muslim voters of Booth 1 to be uniformly 88.86%. In that case, the estimated valid Hindu votes of this booth would be 160 (88.86% of 180) & the estimated valid Muslim votes 1196 (1356 – 160). Out of these, TMC got 1188 votes as per ECI, indicating regimentation of 99.33% of valid Muslim votes behind them. BJP, on the other hand, got 92 votes which are 57.5% of valid Hindu votes (92/160 x 100 = 57.5%). This presentation corroborates with our data analysis takeaway of near-complete Muslim vote regimentation behind TMC.
However, assuming 99.33% Muslim vote regimentation might be too hard a fact to accept. Human beings are naturally predisposed to be multi-opinionated. More so are Bengal People as they’re habitually argumentative by nature. Hence, the assumption of 99.33% regimentation factually amounts to underestimation of the Muslim community’s human worth making them resemble a herd of sheep. Hence, assuming Hindu voter turnout to be 79.67% in booth 1 (same as that in booth 67 which is an all-Hindu booth), estimated valid Hindu votes be 79.67% of 180 = 143 & estimated valid Muslim votes be 1356 -143 = 1213 making Muslim voter turnout to be 90.12% (1213 / 1346 x 100 = 90.12). In this case, BJP appears to have bagged 64.34% of valid Hindu votes of this booth (92 / 143 = 64.34%) & TMC appears to have bagged 97.94% of valid Muslim votes. This presentation corroborates more precisely with our data analysis that all over West Bengal, 97.1% of valid Muslim votes regimented behind TMC. This also corroborates with the claim that minus Muslim votes TMC lost West Bengal. Hinducidal violence in Hindu Homeland, hence, may rationally be interpreted as vengeance in Islamic style.
Union of India, if keeps quiet, Syamaprasad Mookerji’s blood, after 68 years of his death, would now stain the hands of all Nationalists too.