The present India-China border standoff is not a political, military or economic war, but this is a war of (Xi’s) Survival. Do not expect any decency of following rules or agreements. Xi did not care about his people, business and economy, so forget about any consideration for international norms. First, China’s claim of just 80 thousand COVID19 patients is rubbish. Around 14 million sim-cards are missing since coronavirus pandemic started.
Moreover, around more than 100 million migrant workers are not getting enough food to survive. Second, the figure for Chinese un-employment rate of about 6% is a big lie. As per One of the Chinese think tank, the unemployment rate is more than 20%. Xi’s regime scrapped this report and fired the team who prepared this. Third, Chinese businesses are frustrated because, on the one hand, Xi’s has given target to create more than 9 million jobs and 4-5% GDP growth. However, on the other hand, Xi has destroyed all lucrative markets from Chinese business and industries.
Today because coronavirus breakdown, China cancelled around 1200 flights to/from Beijing. There are deep anger and frustration among Chinese people, and even in CCP’s power corridors about Xi’s in-aptness and negligence in handling the containment of COVID19 and global affairs. The pressure is increasing for removal of XiJinping’s protégé and Beijing’s party secretary Cai Qi (??). Because Xi brutally removed almost all Hubei, provincial government after coronavirus pandemic breakdown. Because of this, multiple clashes happened within Hubei government departments and between Hubei and other provinces.
Another frustration Xi is facing that India is emerging as an undisputed regional and global leader. This is evident by these several series of events. First, President Trump himself invited PM Modi to join G7, and Trump also proposed to expand G7 to G11 or G12. Second, Secretary of state- Mike Pompeo discussed with Indian foreign minister of India about the restructuring of global supply. Pre-covid19, China used to control up to 75% global supply chain. Furthermore, the US wants to reduce China’s share and want to bring it below 40%. Third, even after spending millions of dollars in the Maldives, China could not align the Maldives with its political interest, because recently when Pakistan raised issues against India in Islamic countries meeting the Maldives, and neighbouring countries backed India.
China also wants to malign India’s friendly and trusted-partner image with the neighbouring countries. As per this strategy, during Dokhlam border standoff, China involved Bhutan, now China is forcing Nepal to start a confrontation with India. Note, in May 2020 Chinese ambassador (in Nepal) met Nepal’s PM and his two opponents (all of them from Nepalis’ communist party). From there all these anti-India sentiments is artificially planted in Nepal. China will fail again in Nepal.
“Unfortunately in 70th bilateral anniversary year, all these events have clearly set narrative for future, i.e.”India vs China”. Not only trade-deficit but also trust will collapse drastically. “said Shri Prasoon Sharma- Honorary Fellow- Global Governance Institute, London
