There is a new sunrise in the North-Eastern states after the BJP has made deep inroads and captured power in four states, but challenges are no less. There is a chance to resolve age-old contentious issues
Rajat Sethi
The sun rises earlier in North-Eastern India than in the rest of the country. However, this region had remained in ‘darkness’ for a very long time–darkness of vision,
darkness of governance and darkness of separatist violence. The British considered the North-East region as a ‘buffer state’ not to be interfered for day to day governance. While the British plan didn’t succeed, the Congress party too lacked imagination and continued the same approach to the governance of the region. As a result, over the course of time several socio-political issues that could have been solved in due course have became vexed and intractable now.
While the BJP had a clearer political articulation for the North East—the region being an inalienable part of Akhand Bharat, it never had the political mandate to put its vision on the ground. A little more than a year back, the BJP just had a nominal political presence—five MLAs in Assam, eleven in Arunachal Pradesh, five in Nagaland and two in Manipur.
However, within the last one year, the region has seen a political revolution of sorts. Five out of the eight Northeastern states now have either a BJP-led government (Assam, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh) or an NDA government (Nagaland and Sikkim). With the states of Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram due for elections in 2018, and with the initial trends coming from these states, BJP’s graph is all set to go further up.
There are multifarious dimensions to this political uprising. First, it is worth exploring why a national party like the BJP has become a preferred choice for the electorate despite a negligible presence of any representatives and party workers. Second, there is a need to investigate if the emergence of the BJP in the region has sprung out of the utilitarian needs of these states to align with the Center. Third, it is worthwhile to ponder if the constructed ‘subnational’ and ‘anti-national’ streak in the region is the buzzword of the past.
On May 24, 2016, for the first time Assam, the gateway to the North-East, chose a BJP led government in the state with a two-third majority. Almost a year later, on March 15, 2017, Manipur too chose a BJP-led government in its Assembly elections. Both states opted to oust the Congress governments after giving their leaders —Gogoi and Ibobi—a chance for 15 straight years.
While Assam had a basic organisational presence of the BJP, it was unmatchable to the organisational might of Congress. The BJP, over the years, had maintained a 20-25 per cent vote share in the state – never enough to translate into number of seats in the Assembly. However, it was only in 2016 elections that the BJP crossed the threshold and had a thumping victory to make a premanent dent on the body politic of Assam. Going by the track record of almost negligible development by successive Congress regimes in Assam, the BJP emerged as a preferred alternative political party symbolising hope, swift and equitable development for the region along with the trusted leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In Assam, the election was also fought on the rhetoric of ‘the last battle of Saraighat’. The fast changing demography and the scourge of illegal Bangladeshi migration dominated the politics during the election time. The BJP not just captured the narrative but also won the hearts of Assamese people with its aggressive stance to resolve the issues.
Low level of development parameters was also the principle electoral issue in Manipur. Adding to that, a glaring trust deficit between various communities in the State, had manifested itself in the violence-drowned days of the insurgency and sub-national movements. The BJP ran a creative electoral campaign to wrest power in the state from the Congress. In spite of negligible cadre strength, the party was able to exploit the anti-incumbency to its advantage.
With regards to the perception that the north-eastern states align with the political forces occupying the Centre, this is factually incorrect. Assam chose Tarun Gogoi in 2001 elections even when BJP was in power at the Centre.
Similarly, in 2002, in Manipur, Ibobi wrested power from an alliance of local parties backed by couple of MLAs of the BJP. Again the Centre couldn’t come to rescue. North-East has had a complex polity which cannot not be reduced to rule of thumb.
Both, the central and state units of the BJP have come to appreciate the vast nuances underlying the politics of the region and have put in extra focus to think locally in its decision making. In the short span of BJP’s emergence in the region, it has shown political maturity in handling the vexed political issues.
For instance, Manipur has seen deep communal strife for decades. All communities—the Meiteis, the Nagas and the Kukis—have mutually strained relations due to several historical reasons. The entire state is fixed in a complex zero sum game between various communities, as any gains for one community is seen at the cost of the other. In such a sensitive region, the state government’s responsibility is to repose faith in the rule of law, take a just stand on vexed issues and gradually heal the wounds.
The BJP government in Manipur has shown what an inclusive and accommodative politics can achieve. Manipur CM N Biren Singh, in first two months of his government, has showed a new approach of politics where every community is taken into confidence and hasty decisions are avoided.
The first achievement has been the lifting up of economic blockade. The Congress government’s ad hoc executive decision of creating seven new districts with the stroke of a bureaucratic pen plunged the state into four-month- long economic blockade called upon by United Naga Council (UNC). The new BJP government was able to swiftly broker a deal with the UNC in order to lift the blockade. The trust exuded by the leadership of Modi ji was enough to convince the Naga body that their interests would not be trampled upon.
The second achievement has been finding the solution to the Churachandpur crisis. The predominantly Hindu Meitei community, that inhabits the fertile valley area of Manipur, has been facing huge insecurity with ever increasing pressure on its land resource. While the tribals from the hills can own land in both the hills and the valley, the Meiteis of the valley, who are not listed as scheduled tribes,cannot easily purchase land in the hills. In order to protect the Meitei interests, the Congress government introduced three bills. The tribals saw these bills as antithetical to their interests guaranteed by the Constitution.
Churachandpur, a tribal district dominated by the Kukis, became the nerve center and saw massive protests against the bills. In retaliation, the police open fired, and killed 9 people and injured hundreds on August 31, 2015.
Eight dead bodies had been lying in a makeshift cold storage set up as a temporary morgue at the district hospital ever since. Local people had refused to bury the bodies unless the state government accepted their demands of withdrawing the anti-tribal bills.
With the dead bodies decomposing in the morgue, the city life was thrown into dysfunction. There were no official government visits or programs in the district. The Congress-led state government simply abdicated its
responsibility after trying to unsuccessfully reach out to the bereaved families.
With the change of guard and formation of the first ever BJP led government in Manipur, there was a renewed sense of hope among the tribal people of the state. After a few rounds of negotiations, on May 10, 2017, after 618 days of the incident, both parties signed an MoU and agreed to give a respectful burial to the deceased. Here again, it was the towering leadership of PM Modi and deft handling of the situation by CM Biren Singh that helped resolve a deeply sentimental issue.
As the BJP governments in different north eastern states are firming their grip on power, they realise the daunting task ahead. They need to fill the governance deficit of years and restart the growth engine in some of the remotest areas of our country. The opportunities are many. For instance, the BJP is uniquely placed to find a political solution to the Naga issue. The BJP has governments in all the three states that surround Nagaland—Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Manipur—and is also in alliance with the ruling Naga Peoples Front in Nagaland.
The core demand for Greater Nagalim includes territorial claims over some regions in each of the three adjoining states. It is an important political task for the BJP to build political and social
consensus in each of these states as the Centre looks to finalise the Naga
agreement. If the BJP leadership succeeds here, the Meitei and Kuki insurgency in Manipur will also be resolved.
Only time will tell if the politics of the region is able to expand its horizon beyond the almost impervious chicken neck corridor. And time will also tell if the BJP is able to utilise this opportunity to its ideological advantage beyond political expansion. The ethnic diversity of the region which comes up with unique challenges of linguistic, cultural, sartorial and religious identities—mostly in conflict with each other—is a unique opportunity for the BJP to try out an
alternate model of cohesion and integration, ignored by the erstwhile politics in the region. Only if the BJP is able to align the region with its ideological vision of India First, it will do justice to the core objective of its politics.
(The writer is an Advisor to the Chief Minister of Manipur)
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