THE landslide victory for the National Democratic Alliance in Bihar has national dimensions and may impact the political scenario in the country. It is a great morale booster for the alliance and has underlined the ground reality that NDA is the only credible alternative to the UPA. Enthused by the massive verdict delivered by the people of Bihar, belonging to all communities, NDA is already expecting more allies to drift towards it transforming it into a rainbow alliance.
The success in Bihar has made the BJP much more attractive to regional parties that deserted it in the wake of the defeat in the 2004 and subsequent developments. Many a regional outfits are now expected to re-think their future strategy in the light of the realisation that their association with the BJP would greatly enhance their prospects and give a boost to their election campaigns. It will not be surprising if regional parties – that have considerable clout in their respective states – will stop day-dreaming of launching a Third Front as an option at the national level and would seriously consider joining the NDA bandwagon. If reports emanating from West Bengal and Kerala about the imminent defeat of the left parties in these states in the next election are true, the political scenario would be ripe for the complete marginalisation of the Communist parties. Such a situation would further strengthen the sentiment in favour of the BJP that might become a nucleus of a great alliance of non-Communist, non-UPA parties.
The NDA storm that overtook Bihar has given the JD(U)-BJP alliance a 4/5th majority in the 243-member Assembly. The alliance won 206 seats – 115 for JD(U) and 91 for BJP – much more than any of these parties had aspired for. Loud-mouths Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan have suffered a crushing defeat. RJD has been reduced to 22 seats – the lowest ever – and LJP got only three. Rabri Devi’s defeat in both the Yadav-dominated constituencies – Raghopur and Sonepur – is a clear signal to the caste leader that his own community has deserted him. He has lost his sheen and is in a negation mode. The election results, he says, are “mysterious” proving that he lacks the grace to accept defeat. CPM and CPI (ML) as also the SP and the BSP have been completely washed out. Voters were a bit kind to CPI that had won three seats in the last election but will have only one in the new House. Another remarkable feature is the sharp decline of “others”. Their number has gone down from 27 in the last Assembly to seven in 2010.
The JD(U)-BJP alliance worked well. Joint rallies addressed by Nitish Kumar and Arun Jaitley helped a lot in bringing the cadres of the two parties closer. One of the major factors for the historic victory is the ability of both the parties to act in unison and transfer their votes to each other. The alliance polled 39.07 per cent of valid votes to win 206 seats whereas RJD-LJP alliance won only 25 seats for their 25.59 per cent of vote share. This is the magic of our first-past-the post system. If the two ruling parties had contested separately, they wouldn’t have won so handsomely. The lesson to be learnt is that a cohesive alliance helps both the parties. The outcome is the total of their individual score plus something – votes generated by waves. Big victories sometimes bolster egos of parties and leaders. Quality of leadership is tested in such situations. No one should ignore ground realities hidden behind numbers. In this case, RJD-LJP are down but not out. (See Table)
All credit to Nitish Kumar for leading his party and alliance to dizzy heights despite the fact that JD(U) organisational network is rather weak and that he fought a lonely battle. Some of JD(U) leaders, including MPs, are said to have sabotaged the election campaign, though unsuccessfully. It is, therefore, not surprising that JD(U)’s strike rate is lower than its junior partner. BJP, on the other hand, has a well-oiled party machine in place and has a galaxy of local leaders with considerable influence in their respective areas. Although there is factionalism in the state unit of the BJP, at the ground level dedicated and committed cadres delivered. The national leadership too played its cards well by keeping the alliance in tact and effectively managing the campaign. By all accounts, BJP’s macro management of the campaign was far better than its ally what with most of its general secretaries and other senior leaders taking charge of different regions to run the campaign. That it is a structured party and has an ideological identity too paid dividends. Although Nitish Kumar was focused on extremely backward communities and Muslims and pursued policies to win their support, BJP managed to keep intact its middle class and urban vote banks.
Bihar may prove a turning point so far as urban voters are concerned. In 2009 parliamentary elections, the BJP lost in a majority of urban constituencies. In Bihar, it won handsome victories in Patna and other urban areas reflecting revival of urban voters’ faith in the BJP. Consequently, while the JD(U) increased its strength in the Assembly by 27 seats, BJP strength went up by 35. It is yet another instance of real winner coming second.
Congress Party that was talking of its mission 2012 has been decimated. In 2005, the party captured nine seats and subsequently won two more in by-elections. In 2010, the party is counted amongst those who also ran. The party’s tally of four seats in a House of 243 is a rude shock to the party that had invested a lot in this election in the fond hope of reviving the party in the Hindi belt. Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi campaigned aggressively and extensively. Out of 23 constituencies in which Rahul Gandhi addressed rallies, the party could manage to win only one. In most other constituencies where the prince charming campaigned, party candidates were 4th, 5th and 6th loosing their deposits. In one of the constituencies were the dynasty’s heir-apparent sought votes, the BJP candidate trounced its Congress rival with a huge margin of 52,000 votes.
In tune with Congress culture, Mukul Vasnik, AICC General Secretary in charge of Bihar, refuses to accept that Rahul magic failed. “He attracted crowds but the party failed to convert them into votes”, he laments. Congressmen are Congressmen. They never learn from experience. Do Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi believe they can win elections by their glamour and reading out scripts written by their aides even if they field criminals, defectors and those denied tickets by other parties as party candidates? Their magic miserably failed and their false claims about Central funds not being properly utilised and that there had been no development in the state during the past five years were perceived by voters as insult to their intelligence. Voters rejected the dynasty and their party. Sonia Gandhi’s explanation that the party didn’t expect to do well in Bihar and would have to rebuild the party from a scratch is a half-truth. Congress is totally irrelevant in Bihar that sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha.
Congress Party’s rout in Bihar may have serious consequences for its plan to project Rahul Gandhi as the prime ministerial candidate in 2014 or earlier. His failure to motivate crowds that came to his rallies to vote for his party has severely dented the hallow the party and sections of obliging media has built around him. It would be extremely difficult for Rahul Gandhi to lead the party to victory in the next parliamentary elections, if the Congress doesn’t do well in the Hindi heartland. Another serious concern for the Congress is its failure to win back support from the Muslims and benefit from perceived anger among upper castes because of pro-Muslim and pro-OBCs policies pursued by Nitish Kumar-led Government. Congress leaders and Congress-leaning commentators admit that the Bihar defeat would affect party’s performance in UP, particularly in about a dozen bordering districts that have a similar demographic profile.
The core issue in the election was good governance and law and order. Nitish-led Government has a good track record on both the counts. There was not a single communal flare-up in Bihar during the past five years. The coalition government came down heavily to break the stranglehold of abductors and bad characters that had a field day during RJD’s long innings. Good tarred roads are the hallmark of development-oriented policy of the NDA Government. Fear of lawlessness no longer haunts the people, especially women. Pro-Women policies and the Chief Minister’s decision to give bicycles and school uniforms to girl students won the alliance many votes. Women are perceived to have voted for the alliance in good numbers. Although, caste factor was not dominant, it would be wrong to presume that it played no role in the polls. Nitish Kumar’s social engineering through which he converted Extremely Other Backward Communities (EOBCs) into his vote bank enabled him to make inroads into the RJD’s pocket borrows. He also won over a big chunk of extremely deprived sections among Dalits by setting up the Maha Dalit Commission to look after their needs. Significantly, the poll results have proved that Muslims no longer perceive BJP to be their enemy, vicious propaganda by the “secularists” and obliging media notwithstanding. Political analysts believe that 8 to 10 percent of Muslims voted for BJP candidates despite vicious propaganda against the party by the opposition. What is equally gratifying is that the party managed to convince Hindus that the BJP was not a party to the policy of minorityism.
It would be naïve to believe that there are no ideological differences between the JD (U) and the BJP. They have different stands on how to handle Naxals and have different perceptions about the situation in J&K. Similarly, the alliance partners have different takes on special quotas for Muslims and on religion-based reservations. Yet, the leadership of the two parties, particularly the BJP, made concessions to keep the alliance going. At times, BJP swallowed insults and embarrassments. Arun Jaitley who was over all in charge of the campaign went an extra mile to concede Chief Minister’s demand for an urban seat in Patna city for a JD (U) candidate. Jaitley has an excellent rapport with the Bihar Chief Minister. Both of them deserve credit for amicably resolving differences and maintaining cordial relations between the alliance partners.
Although Bihar Chief Minister took a persistent stand that he is not in the race for the office of the Prime Minister – neither now nor in future – and with extreme humility added that he was not qualified for the high office, mainstream media continue to project him as NDA’s most likely prime ministerial candidate. Indian Express Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta said it could happen only if the BJP was sagacious enough to accept him as the leader of NDA adding in the same breath that it was most improbable. But NDTV wouldn’t relent. It claimed that Arun Jaitley had not ruled out this possibility, though the BJP leader had laughed away the suggestion during his appearance on the said channel. It is ridiculous to suggest that the largest party in an alliance would project a leader of an alliance partner with 40/50 seats as its prime ministerial candidate. That would amount to the party admitting that it has mass base but no capable leader for the high office. The country paid a heavy price when Chandrashekhar – an able and respected leader – was put in the high office though he led a miniscule splinter group of the Janata Dal. India can’t afford to repeat that blunder. However, there is no bar for any party – big or small – to project its leader as the prime ministerial candidate.
The message from the historical verdict is loud and clear. Unlike the verdict of 2005 that was partly negative against the misrule of Lalu Yadav, this is a positive vote for good governance and development.
Voters are no longer impressed by caste-based parties and glamorous dynasties that have nothing to offer but negativism. They want peace, security and law and order. They look for good roads, potable water and electricity. They aspire for quality education and job opportunities. Having won a huge majority, no one – neither any leader nor any party – should allow this victory to go into his or its head. People’s expectations from this Government are very high. It is a great responsibility and a challenge. It would be a tough job to come up to the expectations of the people who have reposed faith in the alliance. Rejoicing over the victory is fine. But this great opportunity to make Bihar one of the best administered and forward looking state shouldn’t be frittered away by fighting over loaves and fishes. Let us keep our fingers crossed.
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