As the election waves are gaining momentum throughout India, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) suddenly emerges as an important rival for the ruling Congress government in Assam. Soon after the regional political party of the State had tied an electoral alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress leaders including the State chief minister Tarun Gogoi started making too noisy and critical comments against the regional party leaders. An influential minister of the Gogoi'sCabinet, HB Sarma condemned the understanding between AGP and BJP as a shame for the regional politics, the other minister P Bordoloi termed it an unsuccessful relationship. Even the Assam Pradesh Congress chief Bhubaneswar Kalita forecasted their (AGP-BJP) failure in the forthcoming general elections, the chief minister himself came out with comments that AGP has damaged the future of regional politics by making relationship with the communal BJP in this part of the country.
The five-phased Lok Sabha polls (between April 16 and May 13) have already been declared by the Election Commission of India. In Assam, the electorates will have the opportunity to cast their votes on April 16 and 23. The revised electoral rolls identify 17,468,958 voters eligible for exercising their franchises to form the 15th Lok Sabha (the Lower House of Indian Parliament). It may be mentioned that the main opposition party of Assam, AGP had finalised an electoral alliance with the BJP leadership for the Lok Sabha polls in the first week of March. The deal was finalised in New Delhi in presence of the BJP president Rajnath Singh, their prime ministerial candidate LK Advani, the AGP president Patowary and its working president Phani Bhushan Choudhury. Commenting on the alliance, Advani said it would not only affect the electoral scenario of Assam, but of the entire north-east (total 24 Lok
Sabha constituencies). He also termed AGP as a party being ?born out of a nationalist movement (historic Assam agitation) and has gained experience of ruling? at Dispur twice (1985 and 1996 Assembly elections).
Lately the AGP announced the list of its six candidates for the general elections. The list includes the sitting MPs Sarbananda Sonowal (Dibrugarh parliamentary constituency) and Arun Kumar Sarma (Lakhimpur) with the tea tribe leader Joseph Toppo (Tezpur), Bhupen Rai (Barpeta), Sabda Rabha (Kokrajhar) and the former State minister Gunin Hazarika (Koliabor).
The BJP is supposed to field their candidates in the rest of eight constituencies including the prestigious Guwahati seat, which was won by the Congress in 2004 general elections. The party, which decides to go to polls this time with the slogan Mazbut neta aur nirnayak sarkar (Strong leader and decisive government), has also decided to contest for two seats in Tripura, two in Arunachal Pradesh and one in Manipur.
The party campaign in northeast will focus on the infiltration from the neighbouring Bangladesh, the increasing terror menace and its impact on the society, and the development of the alienated region, informed the Assam BJP chief Ramen Deka.
The enthusiastic AGP president Chandra Mohan Patowary, while clarifying that his party was still to be a partner of National Democratic Alliance (led by BJP), declared that the electoral understanding between AGP and BJP would definitely prevent Congress from taking advantage (as they took in earlier polls) and snatching power.
?I admit that our alliance in 2001 Assembly polls was not fruitful. Then of course the situation was different. We were divided and many grass-root level workers (of AGP) did not prefer the tie up. But now the understanding has been accepted by all our workers positively,? said the AGP president Chandra Mohan Patowary, who has been newly elected to lead the regional party.
Gogoi asserted that as the two betrayers had come together, it becomes easy for the Congress to gain in the elections. He particularly criticised the AGP leaders for ?surrendering? to the BJP in the name of electoral alliance. ?I am surprised why the Congress leaders including Gogoi become so vocal on the issue. It is absolutely our preference and decision. Gogoi and his ministerial colleagues should rather concentrate on their strategies for the polls,? Patowary commented during a Press meet at the AGP head office in Guwahati recently. The brave student leader of yesteryears, Patowary also criticised the Congress party for marinating double standard saying, ?They claim to be a secular party, but continues an alliance with the Indian Union Muslim League in Kerala.?
The century old Congress party has lost the mass support today and now they are not in a position to form the government without the support of regional parties in various parts of the country. In Assam too they have been supported by Bodoland Peoples? Party (led by Hagrama Mohilary), Patowary stated.
The State BJP chief Deka also expressed optimism that the AGP-BJP alliance would drastically reduce the division of anti-Congress votes (read indigenous Assamese) in the State and finally it would result in favour of both the parties. As the two important opposition parties fought separately in 2004 polls, the anti-Congress votes were simply divided. Now there should emerge a real different equation, Deka added.
In the last Lok Sabha polls, both the parties fielded their own candidates and both won two seats each. The AGP candidates won in Lakhimpur and Dibrugarh, where as the BJP candidates achieved success in Nowgong and Mangaldoi. The ruling Congress won nine seats and polled 35.07 per cent votes in their favour. For AGP it was 19.95 per cent and for the BJP candidates the percentage was 22.94.
The Statesman, a mainstream Indian national newspaper editorialised the issue of AGP-BJP alliance saying, ?The welcome change of understanding being that in the Lok Sabha elections the BJP will be the senior partner with more seats and, in the 2011 assembly elections, the AGP will have the greater say.?
It also added that ?in the 2004 elections, the BJP fielded well-known Assamese singer Bhupen Hazarika for the Guwahati seat and the AGP'sgamble to field Bhrigu Phukan (since deceased) against him did not pay off?, but ?if the percentage of votes?a total of 42?that the AGP and BJP polled in the last parliamentary elections is any indication, their electoral prospects this time around seem better.?
?Besides, both parties did improve their position in the 2006 Assembly elections while the Congress tally fell from 73 to 53. Ideologically there is nothing in common between the AGP and BJP, their main objective being to avert a three-way split in the vote since they both share the same source base and to humiliate the ruling party. Now that the AGP is one entity?the breakaway groups have returned to the fold?it should do well,? the editorial concluded.
However Gogoi claimed that it ?would be too simplistic to think that the AGP-BJP vote share in 2004 polls put together is an indication for winning.? The veteran Congress leader rather insisted that the AGP had lost its image of a credible regional political party after tying up with the BJP.
?Gogoi and his colleagues may not admit that the AGP-BJP alliance will go stronger for the 2011 State Assembly elections. The reality is that the Congress leaders feel nervous of the tie-up because they know that the alliance will definitely help both the parties in the coming Assembly polls, if not immediately yields any result in the parliamentary elections,? commented a Guwahati based political observer Rupam Baruah.
Another major headache may surface for the Congress from the Asom United Democratic Front led by Badaruddin Ajmal. The pro-Muslim party has the potential to damage the traditional minority vote shares (nearly 30 per cent Muslim votes) of the Congress in the State. Of course, discussions are going on for an electoral tie-up between the Congress and the AUDF, but Gogoi remained adamant against it. It is to be seen, if Gogoi could continue his stand, where the Congress high command is reportedly in favour of the alliance. The Congress would face a major challenge in nurturing the indigenous Asomiya votes in its favour, if not of the minorities during the elections in the coming days.
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