The failure to set up an alliance or even a seat adjustment between the two NDA partners, Trinamool Congress and the BJP, had helped the ruling CPI(M) to retain the Balagarh Assembly seat in a by-poll held on December 29 and its results were out only on January 2, 2008. This was the first Assembly by-poll after Singur-Nandigram episode in West Bengal. Although the CPM had won the seat in its stronghold, the victory margin had shrunk from 18,000 in 2006 to only 8,410 in 2007. No doubt, Nandigram and Singur episodes have cast its dark shadow over CPM'sstrongholds in rural Bengal. A reduction of nearly 10,000 votes in a constituency, entirely rural and a Scheduled Caste one, has clearly indicated a strong anti-CPM current in public mood in West Bengal.
A closer look at by-poll figures showed that had the Trinamool Congress and the BJP fielded a consensus candidate against the CPM, it would have won the seat hands down. Had Mamata Banerjee stuck to the NDA formula here and fielded a single candidate for the Trinamool-BJP combine, she would have surely won the Balagarh seat this time. The Trinamool-BJP combine received 60,524 votes, which is 423 more than what the CPM candidate had bagged. Moreover, the Balagarh verdict had showed that people in rural Bengal considered BJP an anti-CPM party and doubted the Congress. The Trinamool-BJP combine continues to be a favourite for anti-Left voters. This is why the BJP stands third in the position list and the Congress relegated to the fourth. The result should be an eye-opener for Mamata Banerjee also as she is keeping a distance from the BJP in West Bengal thinking that it may help her get the support of the Muslim vote bank in the state.
Balagarh Assembly By-poll in West Bengal
Total Votes Polled: – 1,68,968
CPM: 60,101
TMC: 51, 691
BJP: 8, 833
Cong: 5,864
The divided Opposition in West Bengal should now wake up and learn the lesson from the by-poll verdict that had they put up a united candidate then the seat would have been wrested from the CPM by a margin of 8,410 votes. In the 2001 Assembly poll, the CPM had won the seat by a margin of 19,700 votes. In 2006, the party had a comfortable margin of more than 18,000 votes. Even during the last Katwa Lok Sabha by-poll in 2007, Balagarh segment gave the CPM a lead of 28,000 votes.
The CPM'svote percentage has now gone down considerably following Nandigram carnage. In 2006, the party got 51.85 per cent of the total votes polled, while it secured only 45.87 per cent in Balagarh Assembly constituency this time. The only other time the CPM polled lower votes at Balagarh than now was during the Lok Sabha polls in 1998, when its vote share was 45.05 per cent. This by-poll was the third election since the Nandigram issue. The first was the elections to the Panskura municipality, which the Left had lost in the face of an united Opposition. The next was the elections to the civic body in Haldia which the CPM won thanks to the disunity of the Opposition. The split in anti-CPM votes, in fact, has always helped the party to retain power in West Bengal.
CPM vote percentage in Balagarh Assembly and Lok Sabha polls
2001: 47.35% 2004: 49.02%
2006: 51.85% 2007: 45.87%
The fact that the BJP got 6.74 per cent of the votes in the by-poll against 5.07 per cent in 2001 Assembly poll in Balagarh constituency fighting alone should be a wake-up call to Mamata Banerjee who is keeping a safe distance from the BJP to appease the Muslim vote bank in West Bengal. If that prompts Mamata to get closer to the BJP, such a move will relegate the Congress to a mere signboard party in West Bengal.
