If one were asked to identify the two biggest losers of the Gujarat Assembly elections, the answer would be the Election Commission and the ?dynasty? that leads the Congress party.
Had the Election Commission waited one more day before rapping the chief minister on the knuckles for supposedly justifying the encounter death of underworld associate Sohrabuddin Sheikh, it could have been even-handed in its treatment of Shri Narendra Modi, Congress president Sonia Gandhi, and former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Digvijay Singh.
Since the degradation of political discourse in Gujarat began with Smt Sonia Gandhi'snow infamous ?darr aur maut ke saudagar? remark, made worse by the party dithering over whether or not it applied to Shri Narendra Modi personally, and aggravated by Shri Digvijay Singh'sassault upon ?Hindu terrorists?, the Election Commission should treaded carefully. On the contrary, it rushed to react to doctored reports regarding Shri Modi'spoll rhetoric, which was a political response to Smt Gandhi'sprovocative taunts, and issued notices to Smt Gandhi and Shri Singh only after being pressurised to do so by the BJP.
When Shri Modi proved the inaccuracies in the complaint against him (he had not justified the encounter killing after all), the Election Commission had no choice but to exonerate him. It did so rather ungraciously, equating him with Shri Singh and giving both a reprimand, while letting Smt Gandhi off the hook with a mere statement of displeasure, just a day before the counting.
In fairness, the Election Commission should have reprimanded Smt Gandhi for her remark, which was intended to polarise voting on communal lines by reviving memories of the 2002 riots. It did not do so for reasons best known to itself. But the Commission has not acquitted itself well by appearing visibly soft on Smt Gandhi, and future solicitude towards select politicians will diminish its stature. As of now, the Commission'saction is like the media-run discourse on the Gujarat riots?just as there is no mention of the Godhra provocation that triggered the riots, there is no notice of the ?maut ka saudagar? that drew the Sohrabuddin response.
The Congress rout in Gujarat, close on the heels of the debacle in Uttar Pradesh, has fully exposed the true political stature of its dynasty. Though the Congress campaign was entirely centred upon Smt Sonia Gandhi and Amethi MP Rahul Gandhi, they could not bring even one-third of the assembly seats into the kitty, and gracelessly deserted the arena instead of staying on to congratulate the winner. Since Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was quick to congratulate Shri Narendra Modi, the silence of the mother-son duo was all the more deafening.
Smt Gandhi'shabit of leaving others to own up and clean up the mess created by her is coming with an increasing cost to the party. The sad fact is that neither she nor her family connect emotionally with the Indian people, understand their aspirations, or empathise with their sorrows. The mere ability to hire a speechwriter does not make a leader. Some Nehru-Gandhi enthusiasts wrote prior to the election that Shri Modi would emerge as the main contender to Smt Gandhi in the 2009 general elections.
To my mind, this was a grossly over-optimistic assessment. In Gujarat 2007, both Smt Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi measured their status against Shri Modi, and were found visibly deficient. This was true even of Uttar Pradesh in May 2007, but it was overlooked by an indulgent media because the bold and brash Mayawati was seen as a political upstart, notwithstanding the fact that she had been state chief minister twice before. Her ability to craft an independent majority has forced a dramatic revision of her national status; the same is now true of Shri Modi.
Even before electioneering started, Shri Modi had established that Tehelka-type of stings would not work; indeed, the local Congress did not take it up at all because it was an obviously contrived affair. In fact, when Shri Modi remained unfazed by the defection of then home minister Gordhan Zapadia and his insinuations against the chief minister on prime time television, Smt Gandhi'sadvisers should have realised that the ?sting? would not get them anywhere. Only one new channel agreed to air the sting, and all print media reports were subdued – a sure indicator that the media viewed the legal viability of the sting operation as suspect. Despite such warning signals, someone scripted the ?maut ka saudagar? line?it went hopelessly off tangent because the Congress had not till then referred to the 2002 riots at all for fear of offending Gujarat'sHindu-conscious electorate. And Shri Modi was quick to seize the opening and cash in?an expected victory became a veritable landslide.
It remains to be seen, in the circumstances, how long the Congress party veterans will be content to play second fiddle to a dynasty that cannot bring in the votes, but has cut down all state level leaders to size. The high-level meeting convened to analyse the Gujarat result saw senior leaders take full responsibility for the debacle, but this may not continue in future. A sure test will be the Congress party'sown diffidence towards the Indo-US nuclear deal, a pet child of the Congress president.
Already murmurs have begun about Congress seeming to appear as the party of just one community (read Muslims), and this is causing jitters to grassroot leaders. Shri Modi tacitly reaped the fruits of this projection once the ?saudagar? folly was committed, and the show was over for Congress. The ?over-dependence? on BJP rebels showed a bankrupt organisation without issues or leaders, and completed the picture of a party led by rootless paratroopers. The resounding verdict of Gujarat 2007 is that Smt Sonia Gandhi has peaked while Shri Rahul Gandhi has faded without blossoming.
