WASHINGTON DC: US President Donald Trump’s approval rating has plunged to a record low of 33 per cent amid the continuing war with Iran and rising inflation. US households are bearing the pressure of the economic cost of Washington’s war on Tehran, coupled with cost of living crisis and soaring public debt & fiscal deficit. The consecutively depleting approval rating has thus raised concerns among the Republicans over their prospects in the November 3 midterm elections.
With opinion polls pointing towards Democrats gaining control of the House of Representatives, prominent figures in Trump’s MAGA movement have begun advocating martial law, military deployment at polling stations and the seizure of voting machines and ballots if Republicans face defeat, intensifying concerns over potential interference in the electoral process.
Trump’s approval rating plunges in new opinion polls; Democrats gain ground
Two new polls by The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos and Fox News indicate mounting public dissatisfaction with Trump’s presidency, particularly over the economy, inflation and his administration’s handling of the war with Iran.
The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey puts Trump’s approval rating among the American adults at just 33 per cent, while 66 per cent disapprove of his performance. More than half of the respondents, 52 per cent, said they strongly disapproved of the president.
The figure marks an eight-percentage-point decline from the same period last year and a four-point fall since July. According to the poll, Trump’s approval rating has dropped below every reading recorded during his first term. Among likely voters, his approval stands at 38 per cent, against 62 per cent who disapprove.
A separate Fox News poll found that only 36 per cent of respondents approve of Trump’s overall performance as the President, while 64 per cent disapprove. This was the lowest approval rating recorded across either of his Presidential terms.
The findings come at a critical moment for Republicans, who are seeking to retain control of Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats are up for election on November 3, alongside numerous gubernatorial and other state and local contests. Opinion polls point towards Democrats winning control of the House of Representatives, while the Senate contest remains too close to call.
Iran war and inflation fuel voter dissatisfaction
Economic discontent has emerged as a major weakness for Trump ahead of the midterms. The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found that Democrats, for the first time in more than a decade, have an advantage over Republicans in voters’ trust to handle the economy. The survey also found that 72 per cent of respondents believe the United States is heading in the wrong direction, a five-point increase since April.
The Fox News poll highlighted similar concerns over the President’s economic performance. Only 22 per cent of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of inflation, down from 36 per cent in a survey conducted last summer.
Disapproval also outweighed approval across several other policy areas. According to Fox News, 70 per cent of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy, 69 per cent of his tariff policies, 64 per cent of his foreign policy and 56 per cent of his immigration policies. The continuing war with Iran has added to concerns over rising living costs, with higher oil prices pushing up fuel expenses for American households.
Trump has acknowledged that the conflict could have electoral consequences, conceding that the war might cost Republicans votes in November. He has nevertheless defended higher fuel costs as a price worth paying for the military campaign and expressed confidence that petrol prices would eventually fall sharply.
The polling also suggests that Democrats could benefit from stronger voter mobilisation. The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey found that 75 per cent of Democratic registered voters were certain to vote or had already cast their ballots, compared with 67 per cent of Republicans. Among Republicans, 75 per cent of those identifying with the MAGA movement said that they were certain to vote, however, the share fell to 57 per cent among Republicans outside the movement.
Trump allies call for martial law if Republicans lose
As Republicans face mounting electoral pressure, prominent figures in Trump’s MAGA movement have called on the President to consider imposing martial law if Democrats make significant gains in the midterm elections.
Peter Ticktin, a friend of Trump and lawyer for election denier Tina Peters, advocated martial law during a virtual conference on September 30. Ticktin argued that Trump would not accept the results if Democrats secured enough seats to take control of Congress. “What I’m saying about martial law is that in the event that the nightmare scenario comes through… at that point, Donald Trump is not going to just turn over the country again”, Ticktin said.
He further argued that martial law could become necessary if Democrats appeared poised to take control through what he described as another “rigged election”. Ticktin also suggested that ballots and election equipment might need to be commandeered to investigate irregularities before further action was taken.
These remarks have intensified concerns about potential attempts to interfere with the electoral process if Republicans lose control of Congress.
Trump raises possibility of invoking the Insurrection Act
Trump has also threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy the military to polling stations. In an interview Trump said, “I could use it. A lot of people think I should use it sometimes”. Asked whether he would declare an emergency in connection with the midterms, he added that he did not “rule anything out or in”.
The remarks have fuelled concerns about possible military deployment at polling stations. The US Constitution and federal laws place restrictions on military involvement in civilian elections. The possibility of invoking the Insurrection Act has nevertheless raised questions about the extent to which the administration might attempt to intervene during the election period.
Democrats warn about attempts to seize ballots by Trump
In the weeks leading up to Election Day on November 3, Trump and his allies have repeatedly questioned election integrity, revived false claims about the 2020 Presidential election, attacked mail-in voting and amplified allegations of foreign interference.
Observers fear that such rhetoric could lay the groundwork for attempts to challenge the results or disrupt the counting process. Caitlin Durkovich, a former Deputy Homeland Security Adviser for Resilience and Response, has warned that the administration could invoke allegations of foreign interference to justify attempts to seize election equipment or ballots.
Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, has also expressed concern that Trump might cite foreign interference as a pretext to seize voting machines. “President Trump will use any tool, legal or not, to try and make sure he gets the results he wants this year,” Warner told The New York Times.
Warner added that he had been urging business leaders, former military leaders and veteran federal law enforcement officials to stand up to Trump, if he rejected the election results. Democrats, election experts and some Republican state election officials have reportedly been preparing legal strategies and deploying observers to monitor potential intimidation by federal agents or MAGA activists. They fear that the vote-counting period could become the most vulnerable phase of the election.
Republican defeat could constrain Trump’s agenda
A Republican loss of the House of Representatives would significantly constrain Trump’s legislative agenda during the final two years of his Presidential term and give Democrats the power. With Trump’s approval ratings declining amid economic dissatisfaction and the continuing war with Iran, Democrats appear positioned to capitalise on public discontent. As the November 3 elections approach, the contest is shaping up to be a critical test for Republicans, to retain congressional control.
