Every Kerala morning since May 4 has begun the same way — with people reaching for their phones, checking the news, waiting for the name. Eight mornings. Eight disappointments. The victory that was supposed to feel like a fresh chapter has started to feel like a chapter that nobody will write. Congress won the election. The Muslim League won the negotiation. And somewhere in the gap between those two facts, Kerala’s Chief Minister is still missing.
On May 4, the state handed the Congress-led UDF 102 of 140 seats — a mandate so sweeping it should have written itself into a swearing-in ceremony within 48 hours. Instead, eight days later, Kerala is sitting in a waiting room it did not ask to enter, staring at a door that will not open, holding a victory trophy that nobody has yet claimed. West Bengal has a Chief Minister. Tamil Nadu has a Chief Minister. Assam has a Chief Minister. Kerala has a deadlock, a dozen Delhi meetings, and a Muslim League that has decided — with 22 seats — that it will tell the party with 63 who gets to lead them.
Kerala CM: Day – 8, Latest Updates
Former KPCC presidents M.M. Hassan, V.M. Sudheeran, Mullappally Ramachandran and K. Muraleedharan were called to Delhi for consultations. Kerala Congress chief Sunny Joseph, working presidents A.P. Anil Kumar, P.C. Vishnunadh and Shafi Parambil, and veteran leader Kannur MP K. Sudhakaran have also been summoned.
Kharge is also expected to consult senior Congress veteran A.K. Antony — who has reportedly stressed the need for the “broadest possible consensus” — before a final decision is made.
And there is a new variable today that tells you everything about where real power in this alliance sits! Before the name drops, Kharge and Priyanka must make one more round of calls — and everyone in Delhi knows which number they are dialling. The Muslim League. The party that walked into this alliance with 22 seats and has spent eight days behaving like it owns the whole house. It picked Satheesan. It fumed publicly at Congress’s silence. It made its displeasure impossible to ignore. But what makes this genuinely uncomfortable for the Gandhis is not the alliance arithmetic — it is Wayanad. Priyanka’s seat. The League’s backyard. You do not push aside the dominant force in your own MP’s constituency just to install a loyalist in the Chief Minister’s chair. Not unless you are ready to pay for it — and pay for it in a place that hits very close to home.
KC, VD and Chennithala – The Three Men and the Frozen Chair!
K.C. Venugopal — Congress national general secretary, the money man, the organisational backbone of the UDF’s campaign. A majority of the MLAs back Venugopal — over 40 of 63 Congress legislators. He has the numbers. He has the high command’s ear. And he appears to have the Gandhi family’s quiet preference. However, he doesn’t have Muslim League support.
V.D. Satheesan — the Opposition leader, Muslim League has publicly backed Satheesan. He has the popular mandate argument and the League’s full force behind him.
Ramesh Chennithala — the veteran, the loyalist, the man with four Lok Sabha terms and six assembly stints and a career’s worth of waiting. Chennithala, by publicly agreeing to abide by whatever the high command decides, has virtually opted out of the race. He stepped back. He still wants to see if the party remembers him.
The Phone Call Kerala Wasn’t Supposed to Know About
In the middle of this frozen standoff, a phone call changed the temperature of the entire race.
The Muslim League (IUML), which commands significant influence in Wayanad — where Priyanka Gandhi now has a direct political stake — made its position clear in private communications. Slighting the ally merely to favour a family courtier could create friction not only within the UDF but also in Priyanka’s future electoral prospects in the constituency.
Muslim League state president Sadiq Ali Shihab Thangal reportedly called Priyanka Gandhi personally. The message, wrapped in constitutional language, was surgical: the Chief Minister should be an elected MLA — not an MP. Venugopal is a sitting Lok Sabha MP from Alappuzha. The “principle” was never about the Constitution. It was a veto, dressed as a suggestion.
The high command, which had been leaning Venugopal’s way, suddenly found itself staring at a much more complicated calculation.
The Venugopal Gamble: Why Congress Is Afraid of Its Own Choice
The inordinate delay is a sign that the high command prefers Venugopal but, considering the risks, is seeking additional assurances. If the former KPCC chiefs and a second round of talks with allies, particularly the League, fail to offer any sureties, the high command will be forced to go with Satheesan.
What are those risks?
If Venugopal becomes Chief Minister, he must vacate his Alappuzha Lok Sabha seat. Two by-elections — one to get Venugopal elected from an assembly seat and a second to elect a new MP from the Alappuzha Lok Sabha seat — would energise the CPM cadres. If there are no elections, there is every chance that the CPM would be distracted, perhaps even crushed beyond repair, by the insurrection that would inevitably be triggered by this massive loss.
The ghost haunting every Delhi corridor right now is 2004 — when K. Muraleedharan lost the Vadakara by-election and was forced to resign from the A.K. Antony cabinet. With 22 seats and an 11.01 per cent vote share, the IUML wields considerable influence in the CM selection process — and in constituencies where Muslim voters are decisive, a hostile League could tip any by-election against Congress.
Congress won 102 seats only on the back of an anti-Pinarayi Vijayan, anti-left wave. By-election weather is different. The thunder passes. The League remembers. And Congress, apparently, knows it.
Muslim League’s Grip: Not Just Opinion, But Occupation
To understand why the Muslim League’s preference carries such disproportionate weight, look at the record — not the rhetoric.
In the last UDF government, the League did not just fill portfolio positions. It controlled the administrative machinery: Education, Health, Industries, Women’s Welfare, Local Self-Government — all in its orbit. Department heads, institutional appointments, even the colour of government school blackboards — all reportedly shaped by one coalition partner that held 22 seats in a government led by a party with 63.
Now, before a single minister has been sworn in, the League’s demands are already circulating: Deputy Chief Minister, Deputy Speaker, and the same cluster of resource-heavy ministries that give control over central funding flows into the state.
The Muslim League has intensified its efforts to consolidate influence within the prospective UDF government even before Congress finalises its decision on the Chief Ministerial post. League leaders are reported to have issued clear directions regarding who should lead the government. The protest mounted against Congress MLA Mathew Kuzhalnadan, after he criticised the League’s growing influence in the front, and is also being viewed as a warning signal aimed at strengthening the party’s hold over the administration.
One MLA spoke out of turn. He was isolated within hours. The message was received across the party.
Priyanka’s Wayanad Problem — The Hidden Variable
There is one reason why the Priyanka Gandhi call matters beyond the CM race itself.
For Rahul and Priyanka, ignoring the IUML isn’t without personal risk. The League commands significant influence in Wayanad, where Priyanka now has a direct political stake. Slighting the ally merely to favour a family courtier could create friction not only within the UDF but also in Priyanka’s future electoral prospects in the constituency.
This is the quiet reality that nobody in Congress wants stated publicly: the Gandhi family’s own electoral future in Kerala is tied to IUML goodwill. Priyanka’s Wayanad seat is not simply a constituency — it is a symbol of the family’s engagement with Kerala politics. A League that feels ignored or overruled on the CM question is a League that could make Wayanad very uncomfortable in the next election.
In other words, the CM of Kerala is partly being decided by what is good for a Lok Sabha MP from a different constituency entirely.
Kerala CM: KPCC chiefs meeting- Who does the latest political signal point towards?
Senior Congress leaders said that the invitation to former KPCC chiefs is a clear indication that the high command has chosen Venugopal — “At least, Venugopal is on top of their mind,” a KPCC general secretary said. “If he wanted to make Satheesan the CM, Kharge only had to announce his name.”
And yet the announcement hasn’t come. Because sources suggest Venugopal have gained a slight edge in the final stage of the race, with the Congress high command planning broader consultations — but the IUML remains a decisive partner with strong vote base and bargaining power within the UDF.
This is the essential truth of the Kerala CM crisis, stated plainly: Congress has a preferred candidate. The Muslim League has a preferred candidate. And Congress is not confident it can afford to pick its own.
That is not coalition governance. That is not even compromise. That is a party that has, over years of dependence and deference, quietly surrendered its own authority — and now finds, in its moment of greatest electoral triumph, that it cannot exercise the basic right to lead itself.
Four scenarios remain on the table
- Venugopal — if the high command can extract enough assurances from the League on the by-election question
- Satheesan — the path of least resistance, the League’s choice, the option Congress reaches for when it runs out of courage
- Ramesh Chennithala — Who have slightly stepped back from the fight and waiting for the high command’s nod to be Kerala CM
- Or a dark horse — some leaders have urged Rahul to search for a candidate who could be projected as a political masterstroke. A face neither faction owns, nobody the League explicitly vetoed, and a name that lets Congress claim it chose on its own terms.
