JAMMU: During the months of August and September, the Union Territory (UT) of Jammu & Kashmir faced massive floods in many parts. In both its divisions, Jammu as also Kashmir Valley. In the Jammu region, Kishtwar district suffered severe damage to infrastructure and there were many fatal casualties, particularly in one episode when flash floods triggered by cloud bursts hit Chishoti village in Padder area. In the Jammu, Samba and Kathua districts too, there were flash floods leading to significant damage to infrastructure, mainly to some bridges on major rivers and rivulets.
All these floods resulted in disruption of surface transport, affecting road travel badly and it impacted many trains too. In fact, train services to and from Jammu have not been fully restored yet, with some trains being short terminated, and others still remaining cancelled. It was only at the beginning of the current month that some of the trains to Jammu got restored.
In October, the weather turned dry with near zero precipitation in many areas and substantially reduced rains/snow in others during November and December till date. This has now turned into a prolonged dry spell which seems to be intensifying with each passing day. According to official data, there has been a seasonal rainfall deficit of 17 per cent from October 1 to December 10. Six districts in Kashmir, including Srinagar, have recorded below-normal rainfall, while four districts in the Jammu region have received more precipitation than normal.
The Kashmir Division has received an average of 64.5 mm of rainfall against a normal of 77.5 mm during this period. Srinagar logged only 38.6 mm against a normal of 73.1 mm, Pulwama 29.4 mm against 52.5 mm, Shopian 16.5 mm against 74.5 mm, Badgam 23.1 mm against 58.3 mm, Bandipora 27.5 mm against 79.1 mm, and Baramulla 28.3 mm against 84.8 mm. These districts fall in the substantial deficit category which is defined as falling between 20 to 59 per cent below normal. This is now creating a problem in many areas, particularly rural areas where villagers are dependent on natural springs for their daily water needs.
In contrast to Kashmir valley, several districts in the Jammu region have recorded significant excess rainfall. Jammu received 74.7 mm against 54.3 mm, Kathua 89.1 mm against 56 mm, Reasi 103.4 mm against 67.1 mm, Doda 129.8 mm against 84.2 mm and Samba 48 mm against 18.3 mm.
The persistent deficit precipitation has resulted in the drying of several major springs across Kashmir, disrupting drinking water supply. The Jhelum river, which meanders its way through the Valley from Verinag to Baramullah, is considered the Valley’s lifeline. It has also witnessed a sharp decline in water levels as there has been little precipitation in the catchment of many of its tributaries (rivulets). At the Sangam gauge in south Kashmir, the river fell to 0.65 metres on December 10, the lowest level this season. There is little chance of any precipitation in the near future and this indicates the level may go down further.
Officials said the fall in river discharge and spring flow is evident across multiple locations, though they maintained that the Valley’s overall drinking water situation remains under control and there is no reason to worry. However, a prolonged dry season of this nature can have serious consequences for drinking water supply. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), used for monitoring drought conditions, currently shows negative values across the entire Kashmir region, indicating dry conditions.
People in north and south Kashmir have reported that springs supplying drinking water to hundreds of households have been running low or dried up altogether. There is growing concern that due to the continuing dry spell, starting October, intake at several points feeding irrigation and drinking water schemes has reduced. The reduced discharge in the Jhelum has exposed long stretches of its riverbed, with houseboats sitting on the river bed at some places.
All this has put pressure on systems that depend on the river, although areas drawing water from Wullar lake have not reported any disruptions. The lake, functioning as a natural sponge and a huge holding reservoir, continues to release water steadily to meet local requirements. The dumping of municipal waste in some areas directly into the lake and lack of dredging has been the bane of this lake though.
Compounding the situation is an extended dry phase since November 5. Some officials noted that the region is currently experiencing an 85.8 per cent rainfall deficit over recent weeks, with the expected 43.1 mm of rainfall almost entirely missing. According to forecasts for the Kashmir region, there is no chance of this dry spell ending in the near future. It is only after December 19 that some areas in the Kashmir valley may see some precipitation.
Though there is no immediate threat to drinking water supply, residents in Kashmir have been advised by officials to conserve water and keep track of minor streams and spring levels, particularly in the south Kashmir districts where deficits remain stark.
