In 2009, I had written a blog titled, “One man with courage makes a majority.” It focused on how Nitish Kumar’s governance reforms had transformed Bihar. A year later, the Nitish-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won an unprecedented mandate of 206 seats out of a total of 243. To many, the explanation was simple. People had voted beyond caste and other sectarian factors for Nitish, it was for his transformation work. The RJD was reduced to its lowest ever tally of 22 seats with their legislative leader and Lalu’s wife, Rabri Devi, losing from Raghopur as well as Sonepur, two seats that had long been family bastions. Never had I imagined that we would witness a very similar result 15 years later with the same man at the helm of affairs. Nitish is once again the central figure of a victory that few could have predicted.
Emerging Triumphant Again
The 2025 Bihar verdict has given the NDA 202 of the 243 seats. BJP bagged 89 and the JD(U) secured 85 out of the 101 each contested, a strike rate that would be the envy of any political formation in Bharat. The RJD has been reduced to a result almost identical to its 2010 debacle with 25 seats, and the Congress has slipped further down to a mere six seats. The Mahagathbandhan has lost some of its biggest fortresses, raising serious questions about cracks within its traditional and once formidable Muslim-Yadav coalition. Tejashwi Yadav scraped through in Raghopur after trailing across several rounds, a symbolic moment for a party that once dominated the region.
Nitish Clearly the Favourite
Swedish novelist, Hjalmar Soderberg, once said: “People want to be loved, failing which they want to be admired, failing which they want to be feared, failing which they want to be hated and despised; ultimately, they want to evoke some sort of strong feeling.” While Lalu Prasad Yadav in the 1990s went as far as to evoke fear among the backward castes against the upper castes in a bid to consolidate his vote bank, Nitish Kumar never had to move beyond the first emotion. Nitish Kumar was loved for his governance transformation during 2005 to 2010, and he is loved even now when he is at the twilight of his political career not only for governance but also for his personal rectitude and what he has come to symbolise in public life.
Nitish had once, during his struggle days in the 1970s, stamped on a table and said, ‘I will do whatever it takes to come to power, but I will do good things once in power.’ Many have often recalled this quote as an early hint of a politician who may adjust tactical moves but not core convictions. The current mandate seems to reaffirm that perception. The voter has endorsed not just his administrative priorities but the idea of him as a moral centre in Bihar politics.
Much credit for NDA victory also goes to the strategic architecture of the alliance. For the first time, NDA was able to bring together not just JD(U) and HAM but also Upendra Kushwaha and Chirag Paswan, who had played the role of the prime disrupter in the 2020 election cycle. In a caste-fractured Bihar, this combination looked formidable on paper. The next challenge was ensuring controversy free seat sharing and seamless vote transfers between alliance partners. BJP played the central role of troubleshooter, managing grievances among the smaller partners and preventing discussions from derailing at any stage.
Excellent Supervision by Home Minister
Home Minister Amit Shah personally supervised the ticket announcement process despite the presence of BJP heavyweights like Vinod Tawde and Dharmendra Pradhan in Bihar. His extended stay in the State to manage both alliance partners and internal rebel candidates indicates how crucial this election was for the BJP and how seriously the party treated the stakes.
While some analysts attribute this win to schemes such as the transfer of Rs 10,000 into the accounts of women, welfare measures like increasing pension from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100, and 125 units of free electricity, this would be too simplistic an explanation for such a decisive mandate. Even the women-centric money transfer has succeeded only because of credibility that had already been established among women over years. This includes the long legacy of policies from bicycles and school uniforms for girls to 50 per cent reservation in Panchayats and 35 per cent reservation in government jobs. The social foundation created by these earlier reforms enhanced the believability of current schemes and converted policy promises into genuine political capital.
Directionless Alliance
On the other hand, INDI alliance lost momentum at the exact moment when cohesion was required. Even though it launched its Voter Adhikar Yatra with energy, the alliance soon became directionless during seat-sharing talks. The absence of Rahul Gandhi at this crucial stage allowed narratives of internal discord, particularly between RJD and Congress, to dominate the news cycle. Tejashwi Yadav struggled to assert himself and conclude the discussions, a task many believe would have been carried out decisively by Lalu Prasad Yadav. Seat sharing was announced several days after nominations had closed which turned the process into a spectacle. Partners fought each other on more than ten seats which Ashok Gehlot, who was later dispatched to salvage the situation, termed a friendly fight. The claim did little to hide the disarray.
The final blow came when Mukesh Sahani managed to negotiate his projection as the Deputy Chief Minister candidate despite being the fourth-largest party in the coalition. This episode exposed the alliance’s vulnerability to last-minute bargaining. The Muslim community was particularly disappointed. To them, the elevation of a Mallah leader without any similar gesture towards the loyal Muslim vote bank was an unnecessary provocation. The decision to name the alliance manifesto ‘Tejashwi Pran’ further signalled the RJD’s dominance over Congress rather than unity in purpose.
During the campaign, the partners of the Mahagathbandhan appeared out of sync regarding issues. Congress remained obsessed with the Vote Chori narrative which not only fell flat but also diluted the broader issues of jobs and migration that other Mahagathbandhan constituents were attempting to highlight. Several statements and campaign songs by local RJD leaders worsened matters. Videos of enthusiastic party workers warning of consequences once RJD and Tejashwi returned to power circulated widely. These evoked memories of the 1990s, unsettling fence sitters and anti-RJD voters who had been gradually warming up to the idea of generational change. The Prime Minister capitalised on these references to argue that the RJD had not changed its political culture.
NDA, especially BJP, took care not to repeat the mistakes of 2020. The inclusion of Upendra Kushwaha and Chirag Paswan was a direct response to the earlier cycle where both had inflicted electoral damage. Bringing Bhojpuri singer Pawan Singh back into the fold assured that the Rajput-Kushwaha polarisation, which had hurt the NDA during the recent Lok Sabha polls, was contained. This helped NDA, particularly in the Magadh-Shahabad area, where it was routed last time. Even in other places, the alliance maintained a highly disciplined campaign with messaging and candidate selection geared towards reducing fragmentation in its support base. Prashant Kishor, once considered a threat who could split BJP votes in several places, lost steam by the end of the campaign and became a non-factor as the results have shown.
The election results have not only elevated Nitish Kumar’s stature but also placed him in the league of Shri Krishna Singh and Karpoori Thakur, two of Bihar’s tallest Chief Ministers of the past. This mandate has finally delinked Nitish from Lalu in public imagination. For decades, political analysts often framed them as parallel forces representing different strands of social justice. Today, Nitish stands in a different league, defined not by popularity alone but by a consistent commitment to governance, integrity and public probity.
When Chemistry Meets Arithmetics
Smooth seat sharing
When the Mahagathbandhan was fighting over seat sharing, the NDA managed to share seats flawlessly, which played a key role in smooth campaigning without any controversy. The alliance comprised BJP, JD(U), LJP (Ram Vilas), HAM(S) and RLM. The BJP and JD(U) evenly contested 101 seats each. Smaller allies like the LJP (Ram Vilas) contested 29 seats, while HAM(S) was given six seats.
Reminding Lalu’s Jungle Raj
The Developmental issue was part of the NDA campaign, but the BJP-led NDA reminded people of the era of ‘Jungle Raj’ during Lalu’s period, a term associated with lawlessness during the Lalu-Rabri era (1990-2005). This law-and-order scare reminded voters of the chaotic and violent past under RJD’s Lalu-Rabri regime, contrasting it with the NDA’s promise of stability and governance. Despite Bihar witnessing its most peaceful elections ever with zero repolls or violent incidents — a dramatic turnaround from previous decades — the Jungle Raj rhetoric struck a chord with many voters wary of instability.
Women voters
As per analysts, women played a decisive role in the NDA’s electoral sweep, with historic voter turnout gaps revealing women voted 10-20 percentage points higher than men in many districts such as Supaul, Kishanganj, and Madhubani. NDA’s extensive schemes for women, including schemes for self-help groups, livelihood support, and social security, energised this vital demographic, giving them hope in the alliance. Nitish Kumar’s efforts to empower women, coupled with the BJP’s national outreach, resonated deeply with female voters who perceived the NDA as a champion of their aspirations and safety.
Modi-Nitish as a strong face
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a credible figure in the country, strengthened the NDA with Nitish Kumar as a non-corrupt and trustworthy leader. Nitish’s governance record on infrastructure and welfare, combined with his image as a firm leader capable of giving stability to Bihar, has been a key factor. It reinforced voter trust. The synergy between Nitish’s JD(U) and Narendra Modi created a robust front that could appeal to diverse electoral groups and attracted people across various castes, especially the youth.
Perfect caste arithmetic
Caste plays the most decisive role in Bihar’s politics. Hence, NDA, like in the past, did the perfect caste arithmetic to bring leaders across all the castes into its pocket. NDA consolidated the upper castes, OBC and others through the BJP, while Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) secured a strong base among Kurmis and EBCs, which constitute about 36 per cent of Bihar’s population. Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Hindustani Awam Morcha, and Rashtriya Lok Morcha increased the NDA’s Dalit and backward caste, making it a diverse and strong coalition representing every section of society.
The 2025 mandate underscores a deeper truth about Bihar’s political culture. Governance has once again become the core electoral currency. The verdict is not merely a rejection of misrule or disunity but an affirmation that Bihar’s voters expect politics to rise above fear, caste anxieties, and transactional coalitions.
As Bihar enters a new term of governance, the moment carries echoes of the optimism that defined 2010, yet it also reflects a more mature understanding of what sustainable progress requires. The people have chosen continuity over chaos and evolution over regression. In doing so, they have signalled a desire for politics rooted in stability, delivery, and a broader sense of collective purpose. The mandate is ultimately not just about who forms the government but about what Bihar expects from its politics. It is a reminder that the State’s future will be shaped not by individual legacies alone but by the aspirations of its people and their continuing insistence on a more confident, forward-looking Bihar.
