The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is heading toward a sweeping victory in Bihar, with early trends showing the coalition outperforming even Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s pre-poll projection. As counting advanced, the NDA pulled ahead in 186 seats, far exceeding Shah’s confident prediction that the alliance would win “more than 160 seats.”
Within the surging coalition, the BJP led in 84 constituencies, followed by Nitish Kumar’s JDU with 76. Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) was ahead in 22 seats, and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM led in four, collectively placing the NDA well above the benchmark Shah had set.
The numbers reveal a striking subtext: the BJP appears poised to surpass even its own expectations, including those articulated by Union Home Minister Amit Shah shortly before polling began.
In an interview, Amit Shah had forecast that the NDA would surpass 160 seats, asserting that the alliance was in a “comfortable position” and on track for a “clear and comfortable victory.”
Pressed for specifics, Amit Shah reiterated his stance, claiming the NDA would win more than a two-thirds majority. He also maintained that both major partners, the BJP and JD(U), would achieve an “equal” strike rate. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan appears headed for significant losses. Early trends show the alliance falling far behind, with its long-standing weak link, the Congress, struggling yet again. The RJD, which had won 114 seats in the previous assembly, is currently leading in only 32 constituencies, despite Tejashwi Yadav’s energetic campaign against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
Congress’s underperformance remains a familiar pattern within the alliance. In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, it contested 70 seats but secured only 19, even as the RJD and Left parties exceeded expectations.
The current election seems to be following a similar trajectory. Congress is contesting 61 seats but is leading in only seven, highlighting the party’s continued struggle to establish itself as a decisive force within the Mahagathbandhan.
