India will continue to lead as one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting a 6.6 percent expansion in the current fiscal year, according to its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. The IMF’s October update highlights India’s strong domestic momentum and economic resilience, even as global growth slows and trade tensions rise.
The IMF noted that India’s economic indicators for the first quarter of FY26, covering the period from April to June, have been robust. A solid upturn in manufacturing, coupled with strong private consumption and investment, has provided the economy with a powerful start. The agency’s upward revision from its April estimates reflects the positive carryover effects of this performance. Despite the imposition of a 50 percent tariff by the United States on certain Indian products, India’s growth trajectory remains largely unaffected. The IMF report underlined that the effects of the tariff shock were significantly smaller than anticipated, as resilient domestic demand, trade diversification, and expanding industrial output helped cushion the impact.
Domestic consumption to drive growth ; India to outperform China
According to the Fund, domestic consumption remains the primary engine of India’s growth. Strong household spending and rising incomes have kept demand buoyant, offsetting external pressures from protectionist measures and global trade disruptions. The service sector continues to expand rapidly, while manufacturing is showing clear signs of revival, supported by government initiatives promoting production and investment. Private sector activity and infrastructure development are also contributing to sustained economic expansion. The IMF said that the combination of consumption strength and investment revival places India in a unique position to defy the broader slowdown facing emerging markets.
With a projected growth rate of 6.6 percent for FY26, India is set to outpace China, whose economy is expected to expand by 4.8 percent in the same period. The IMF attributes this divergence to India’s stronger domestic fundamentals and policy reforms aimed at enhancing productivity and competitiveness. For FY27, however, the IMF expects India’s growth to moderate slightly to 6.2 percent, reflecting a normalization of momentum after the strong start to the current fiscal year. Even with this adjustment, India remains the fastest-growing large economy in the world, well above the global and advanced economy averages. The Fund acknowledged that India’s growth performance in FY25, recorded at 6.5 percent, provided a solid foundation for sustaining expansion within the government’s projected range of 6.3–6.8 percent for FY26. This consistency, amid a volatile global environment, underscores India’s position as a stabilizing force in the world economy.
Global economy losing steam
The IMF’s report paints a less optimistic picture for the global economy. Worldwide growth is expected to moderate to 3.2 percent in 2025 and further slow to 3.1 percent in 2026, down from 3.3 percent in 2024. Advanced economies are forecast to expand at an average of 1.6 percent, while emerging markets will grow around 4.2 percent.
Among advanced nations, Spain is projected to record the fastest growth at 2.9 percent, followed by the United States at 1.9 percent. Japan and Canada, meanwhile, are expected to see slower expansions of 1.1 and 1.2 percent, respectively. The IMF noted that while the October projections represent an upward revision from April, they remain below pre-tariff expectations due to the continuing effects of trade barriers and global policy uncertainty.
The IMF’s assessment suggests that the impact of recent U.S. tariffs on global trade has been less severe than initially feared. In India’s case, strong internal demand, vibrant industrial output, and increasing private investment have largely absorbed the external shock. The country’s growing ability to diversify trade partners and strengthen domestic markets has limited the fallout from protectionist measures.
Globally, inflationary pressures are easing, though the pattern remains uneven across economies. The IMF observed that price stability is returning gradually in many regions, but inflation in the United States could edge higher due to tariff-related cost pressures. In contrast, several other economies are witnessing a softening of price growth. The Fund warned that prolonged uncertainty, protectionist policies, and labour market disruptions could challenge the pace of recovery. Fiscal vulnerabilities and potential financial market corrections also remain areas of concern, especially in economies with limited policy space.
Policy guidance for sustainable growth
In its policy recommendations, the IMF urged governments to strengthen fiscal credibility, rebuild buffers, and maintain the independence of central banks. It emphasized that credible, transparent, and sustainable policy measures are essential to ensure economic stability and long-term growth.The report also called for renewed international cooperation to counter the ripple effects of tariffs and global supply chain fragmentation. The Fund highlighted that trade diplomacy and macroeconomic coordination are vital to restore confidence and sustain the recovery of global trade flows.
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