The recent decision by China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghan territory marks a significant development in South Asian geopolitics. This trilateral agreement, announced during an informal meeting in Beijing on May 21, 2025, aims to deepen regional connectivity under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). While proponents argue that this move could foster economic growth and stability in the region, India perceives it as a strategic challenge that could undermine its sovereignty and regional influence.
CPEC is a flagship project under China’s BRI, designed to connect China’s Xinjiang province to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port through a network of roads, railways, and pipelines. The corridor aims to enhance trade routes and energy transportation, offering China a shorter and more secure path to the Arabian Sea. The recent agreement to extend CPEC into Afghanistan involves integrating Afghan infrastructure and resources into this network, potentially providing Afghanistan with improved access to regional markets and development opportunities.
India’s Sovereignty Concerns
India has consistently opposed CPEC since its inception, primarily because the corridor passes through Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK), a territory India claims as its own. The extension of CPEC into Afghanistan exacerbates these concerns, as it could legitimize the existing route through PoK and further entrench China’s presence in disputed regions. India views this development as a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, fearing that it could set a precedent for similar projects in other contested areas.
Beyond sovereignty issues, the expansion of CPEC into Afghanistan has broader strategic implications for India. Firstly, it could enhance China’s influence in South Asia, potentially encircling India through a network of infrastructure projects and alliances—a strategy often referred to as the “String of Pearls.” This encirclement could limit India’s strategic autonomy and constrain its regional aspirations
Secondly, the integration of Afghanistan into CPEC may alter the regional balance of power. By strengthening ties with both Pakistan and Afghanistan, China could position itself as a dominant player in South Asian affairs, potentially sidelining India’s role in regional decision-making. This shift could have implications for India’s security, trade, and diplomatic engagements in the region.
Economic and Security Concerns
The extension of CPEC into Afghanistan also raises economic and security concerns for India. Economically, increased Chinese investment in Afghanistan could divert trade and investment opportunities away from India, affecting its economic interests in the region. Security-wise, the enhanced connectivity between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan could facilitate the movement of goods and people, potentially increasing the risk of cross-border terrorism and insurgency, especially in India’s sensitive border areas.
In response to these developments, India may need to reassess its regional strategies. One approach could involve strengthening its diplomatic engagements with neighbouring countries to counterbalance China’s influence. India could also invest in alternative connectivity projects, such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), to diversify its trade routes and reduce dependence on regions influenced by China’s BRI.
Furthermore, India might consider enhancing its security measures along its western borders and increasing surveillance to mitigate potential threats arising from the expanded CPEC network. Engaging in multilateral forums and building strategic partnerships with like-minded countries could also help India assert its interests and maintain regional stability.
The decision to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor into Afghanistan represents a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. While it offers potential economic benefits for the involved countries, it poses considerable challenges for India concerning sovereignty, security, and regional influence. To navigate this complex environment, India must adopt a multifaceted strategy that includes diplomatic engagement, economic diversification, and enhanced security measures to safeguard its national interests and uphold regional stability.
