On April 23, 2025, the Union government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi put Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance after the Pahalgam terror attack, which led to the killings of over two dozen tourists. The attack was engineered by The Resistance Front (TRF), a front or bogey for Lashkar e Toiba (LeT) helmed by Hafiz Saeed.
Pakistan is in a tailspin now as it had never expected that the Treaty could be put on hold by India in this manner. Why has Modi’s action left it in a tizzy?
Rewind and recall that 10 men of the same LeT created mayhem in Mumbai for three days beginning November 26, 2008, leaving at least 166 people dead. The Union government then led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had done little of deterrence against Pakistan. The Congress had virtually nothing and putting IWT on hold was not even discussed as an option that was there on the table.
Given this past history of carrying out and engineering terror attacks, and going unpunished, Pakistan thought there was not much India will do this time too. Except expressing outrage and blaming Pakistan for the attack.
Almost everyone in Pakistan was smug after the Pahalgam attack that if killing of 166 people had failed to shake India earlier, it would be no big deal if 26 Hindus have been killed in cold blood now. What they did not factor in was that there is a distinct difference in Modi’s approach as compared to that of Manmohan.
Incidentally, at least seven years before the Mumbai attack, the Central government led by Atal Behari Vajpayee had threatened to abrogate IWT after the December 13, 2001, attack on Parliament. This attack too had been carried out by LeT and Afzal Guru was one man who was taken to gallows for his involvement in this dastardly attack.
Stark Difference in Approach
We all know that the approaches of the Congress and the BJP to all issues are distinctly different and this has been brought out very starkly by post-Pahalgam massacre steps initiated by the present government. This study in contrast needs to be brought out before the masses so that they can decide for themselves who they want to choose and gravitate towards.
Incidentally, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was signed by the then Indian Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan on September 19, 1960, in Karachi in presence of World Bank officials. On November 30, 1960, a debate was held in Parliament on the newly minted gift given by Nehru to Pakistan. Atal Behari Vajpayee, just 36 then, was MP from Balrampur and his fiery speech, loaded with facts and figures, arguments hugely embarrassed Nehru.
Late Vajpayee had then warned that Nehru has been rather too generous to an implacable adversary and generations of Indians will have to bear the consequences. Fortunately, with Modi government suspending the Treaty for now, some of the suicidal steps that Nehru had taken then may get reversed, at least partially now.
The Parliamentary debate of November 30, 1960, is one document that needs to be read by scholars as it is easily available in the Lok Sabha library. Incidentally, it needs to be mentioned here that this document has not been reproduced as a separate booklet or book till date.
False Narrative on Treaty
The Treaty endured for over 50 years without any major hiccups and Pakistan built a narrative that even wars have failed to shake it up. Misplaced do-gooders from India tagged along, and praised it sky high, as an unshakable talisman of cooperation between the two neighbours, often bitter rivals, and enemies.
For the first time, however, the Indian government under Atal Behari Vajpayee talked of the possibility of scrapping the Treaty after December 13, 2001, attack on Parliament by Lashkar e Toiba (LeT) terrorists. Somehow, the threat was not carried out and two years before that, during Kargil war, it was not something that was on the table even for discussions. If it was, one did not hear about it being mentioned publicly by any leader of consequence.
On April 23, 2025, almost 65 years later, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has done to IWT after a gruesome terrorist strike in Pahalgam what earlier wars could not do. Keeping IWT in abeyance was the first of five major punitive steps that the Modi government has initiated against Pakistan to go after it. For too long, Pakistan has played with a straight bat denying any hand in repeated terror strikes it managed to engineer through its proxies in India, particularly Jammu & Kashmir.
This time, however, Modi decided that enough was enough and things have been pushed too far by Pakistan. Retaliation, swift and punitive, was in order and has been initiated against Pakistan. It is just the initial days after the Pahalgam massacre and more punishment will be duly devised in the days to come.
Modi’s 5th Punch on IWT
The very first step that the Modi government has decided on is to keep in abeyance the IWT. This is a real knock-out punch that Modi has delivered to adversary. Incidentally, it has been Modi’s consistent policy to use IWT as a cornerstone of his government’s diplomatic policy for mounting pressure on Pakistan. It needs to be mentioned here that this was Modi’s 5th punch on IWT delivered to an adversary when least expected.
If this is the 5th IWT blow by Modi, when were the first four delivered? We will have to go back to scrutinising Modi’s record of three tenures and then the timeline of earlier four blows become clear to us. During his first tenure as PM, from 2014 to 2019, Modi referred to the IWT, indirectly and then directly, twice. During his second tenure, from 2019 to 2024, Modi referred to the IWT, directly, once in January 25, 2023. In his current third tenure, the Modi government used IWT in August 2024 and now for the second time in April 2025.
On Wednesday, it was for the 5th time during his three tenures that PM Modi had invoked IWT in the context of diplomatic ties with Pakistan. Of these five times, it has been referred to at least thrice due to spectacular terrorist attacks. Wednesday’s action on IWT it the 5th time Modi government has taken substantial action on IWT.
On earlier occasions too, Modi had talked of IWT decisively. It has been an escalatory ladder, with each new step a notch above the previous one.
Weaponising water
Just as Pakistan has been consistent in engineering terror attacks, Modi had started flirting with IWT, water in other words, soon after the Uri attack in September 2016. After that horredous attack, it was perhaps the first time that PM Narendra Modi toyed with the idea of weaponising water. A statement attributed to him then was: Blood and water can’t flow together. Another phrase that gained much currency during that phase was: Terror and talks can’t go together.
In the paragraphs above is given a bird’s eye view of the IWT through the last 65 years. It may be interesting to note that no Congress government at the Centre thought of touching IWT in any manner despite grave provocations.
Pakistan needs to learn and memorise for its own good that Modi is different. Try recalling Maggie ad by an actor which says: It’s different!
