It is assuring that US President Donald J Trump today is determined to keep his electoral campaign promise of defusing the Ukraine crisis. Knowledgeable sources say that with his return to the White House on January 20, peace was very much in sight in the region. President Trump has long been serious about establishing peace between Russia and Ukraine. He vowed to end the Ukraine war even before returning to the White House. In tune with his commitment, he had an over 90-minute long “productive” telephonic conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin last month.
Subsequently, last month, President Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Walz and Middle East special envoy Steve Witkoff had a preliminary round of talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Foreign Affairs Advisor Yuri Ushakov in Riyadh to defuse the Ukraine crisis.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been very helpful in the Riyadh talks. President Trump has had very good relations with the Saudi Crown Prince. Recently, the Prince helped facilitate the release of detained American citizen Marc Fogel from Russia. In 2017, during his previous term in the White House, Trump’s first foreign trip was to Saudi Arabia only.
The sources say the Trump presidency today is aiming hard indeed at a “just and lasting” peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine. The Riyadh talks have been structured to culminate into a Trump-Putin summit that would have Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on board. Today, Washington is very cognisant that Ukraine is a key party to the current conflict in the region. As such, its President, Volodymyr Zelensky, must come along in any meaningful negotiatory process.
The recent “brawl” President Trump and his Vice President JD Vance had with Ukrainian President Zelensky in the Oval Office is unlikely to queer the pitch of a final peace deal. At the potential final US-Russia-Ukraine summit, Zelensky is likely to drop his demand for membership in NATO, and Putin is likely to return back to Ukraine, the territory Russia has occupied during the current war. The summit is sure to rope in the European countries to create a “durable security framework” for Ukraine.
President Zelensky seems to be fully aware that the Trump administration is not to prioritize European and Ukrainian security. Today, it is primarily focused on securing US borders and deterring war with China.
Also, there is increasing realisation across the world strategic community that the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war has been a scourge for the entire humanity. It has claimed the lives of too many people in Russia and Ukraine. The economic sanctions the United States under its former President Joe Biden and its Western allies slapped on Russia in the wake of the latter’s invasion of Ukraine have proved very costly. Today, Americans pay more than $3.50 a gallon for gas.
No doubt, the US today is the world’s biggest oil and natural gas producer. It is no longer an oil importer. New exploration techniques/ shales revolution have changed the scenario to its advantage. Yet the US is not in a position to take care of all of Europe’s energy needs. Russia is the third-largest producer of oil and accounts for up to a third of Europe’s natural gas supplies. Europe gets nearly 40 per cent of its natural gas from Russia only.
The sources add New Delhi must be looking forward to a peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine. India has been close to both nations. It has had a pacifist approach to defuse their current friction. From the very day the Ukrainian crisis erupted, India has emphasised to engage “with all stakeholders and understanding different perspectives, approaches, and options to find a way forward for a sustainable resolution of the conflict.”
New Delhi must be well aware that ending the Russo-Ukrainian crisis is in India’s interest. In the wake of the Ukraine crisis, Moscow has come much closer to Beijing. The coalescence between Russia and China, both nuclear powers, might embolden Beijing to activate its well-documented designs against India.
