To avoid the US being dragged into another major European Conflict, will Trump press the exit button for NATO? Highly Likely.
A little more than 200 years back, French General Napoleon Bonaparte initiated the French invasion of Russia. This was followed by the Crimean War thrusted on Russia by the Anglo-French alliance in 1853. That was almost 175 years back. From then onwards during both the World Wars, Russia has been at the receiving end of major attacks, invasions and even though some of the erstwhile aggressors kept switching sides from time to time, in essence Russia has been at war with Western Europe for several hundred years now. From the era of Napoleon to the ones before and after him, conquest of Russia has been an unfinished agenda of many powerhouses there.
Historical Background
Even during the initial phases of World War 2, Western European colonial powers did not feel too bad when Hitler launched Operation Barbarossa to repeat what Napoleon had attempted 130 years back, i.e. to conquer Russia. It was not until Hitler started bombing cities of Britain that Western Europe’s mindset changed about Germany’s invasion of Russia.
Western Europe’s Dreams about Russia
The crux of the matter is that what is happening in the current context of NATO’s literal proxy war against Russia, where Ukraine is no more than a dispensable pawn, has to be understood from the prism of how Western and Central Europe have always considered Russia as a pariah, and an unfinished business.
With the fall of Berlin War and disintegration of Soviet Union, Russia had perhaps expected eventual integration of itself into the European scheme of affairs. It also probably expected a total reset of its relation with Western Europe, post the Cold War, as has been the case of other European colonial powers who had left behind their centuries of animosity to chart a new path of mutual growth. But that was not to be.
While Trump is busy dismantling the Woke agenda of globalists in the US, and unleashing a major tariff war on Europe, many analysts believe that the major stakeholders in the neo-Marxist woke cabal have now completely put their weight behind Western Europe
While Warsaw Pact, the Soviet counterpart to NATO, witnessed gradual dissolution, NATO was never dismantled, and kept on expanding eastward, by breaking all the pledges made to Russia in 1994 on ‘no eastward’ movement of NATO. For Brussels, the headquarters of both EU and NATO, Ukraine was one of the last bastions to put the flag on.
This would have meant putting up NATO’s air defence units, as well as offensive missile systems right in the backyard of Russia. While Russia kept pleading that the red lines are being breached, with NATO gobbling up the erstwhile Warsaw Pact countries into its fold, it was pretty apparent that the architects of NATO’s expansion eastward knew exactly about the kind of response Russia would be compelled to give which then would be used as a pretext to term Russia as ‘hegemonic’, ‘expansionist’, ‘dictatorial’, thereby justifying the expansion of NATO. It ensured good business as NATO members were then honor bound to only purchase NATO standard weapons, which meant assured business for the Military Industrial Complex of both the US and Europe.
A dangerous cocktail of neo-capitalism and neo-Marxism, under the garb of neoliberalism, were at play to expand European dominance worldwide in the post-colonial era, through both military stranglehold and spread of Wokeism.
Decoding the American Role
The interesting part of all of it is that the United States has been an active member, a key architect, a fund provider and major player in all of it since the end of WW2. Wherever getting a United Nations sanction for a military operation became problematic due to potential veto by Russia or China at the UNSC, NATO was a convenient alternate arrangement for doing the needful. Likewise, an entire ecosystem of NGOs, think-tanks and rating agencies were created to eulogise or defame regimes as per convenience. Europe, guaranteed of security by the US, under NATO, and funds, then went on to meddle in affairs literally everywhere.
Wherever military operations through NATO were not feasible, triggering regime change through civil unrest, chaos, anarchy became the norm. This is exactly where the likes of the USAID kind of organisation, as well as George Soros kind of elements played a critical role for them to continue with their dominance of narratives across the world.
The Transatlantic Bridge is on the cusp of being broken and replaced with a deep ridge. Given Trump’s popularity in the US right now, his decision would get a thumping support from Americans if he decides to exit NATO
Had it not been for expansion of NATO, followed by relentless bombing of Donbas region by Ukrainian Armed Forces and unleashing of white supremacist Neo-Nazi militias like Azov Regiment, Russia’s military operations in Ukraine would never have taken place. Had Russia been expansionist, it could have clearly taken over most of the erstwhile Soviet states in Central Asia anytime. But it never did. And yet, Western media, across the Transatlantic have been pretty successful in falsely projecting Russia as the aggressor and ‘culprit’ in Ukraine. It is also pretty clear that grandstanding on democracy and rule of law notwithstanding, the Deep State is desperate to ensure that repeat of US type electoral outcomes do not happen in Europe. Shockingly in Romania, the main opposition leader Calin Georgescu was prevented from coming to power through cancellation of elections when it was found that he was set to win it.
Is Deep State Banking on Western Europe?
While Trump is busy dismantling the Woke agenda of globalists in the US, and unleashing a major tariff war on Europe, many analysts believe that the major stakeholders in the neo-Marxist woke cabal have now completely put their weight behind Western Europe. The decision of the European Union to pledge €700 billion for enhanced military spending and military aid to Ukraine, indicates that leadership of the European Union can even go to the extent of making European countries bankrupt. It can ignore all the persistent problems of Western Europe including immigration crisis, economic recession, energy crisis, debt problem, employment challenges and supply chain disruptions, and yet go all out to support Zelenskyy in the ongoing futile war that can never have a Ukrainian victory.
The Televised Verbal Duel
The spat between Trump and Zelenskyy had more than what meets the eyes. It apparently appears to be an ambush from both sides. While the Trump administration perhaps wanted it to happen in front of roving cameras to expose Zelenskyy and project him as the one who is not willing to end the war, Zelenskyy meanwhile, apparently supported by his backers in Europe, never wanted the war to end.
Will Europe Drag the US into World War?
If one looks at the previous two World Wars, both were Europe centric conflicts in essence. Had it not been for the involvement of Japan, and most of Africa, as also Asia, then being colonies of European empires, both the World Wars should have ideally been termed as European Wars. In both conflicts, the US was literally dragged into the war by Western European countries, given the strong Transatlantic connection. While Trump has warned that Zelenskyy’s actions might trigger World War 3, Trump knows what Article 5 of the NATO Charter is all about. As things stand where Western Europe remains defiant, Trump’s worst nightmare is any rash action by them that may compel a Russian retaliation beyond Ukraine. That may be potentially the last resort of some to ensure that an American intervention even if reluctantly happens this time too. To avoid that, it is pretty clear that Trump may even make the US quit NATO.
The Transatlantic Bridge is on the cusp of being broken and replaced with a deep ridge. Given Trump’s popularity in the US right now, his decision would get a thumping support from Americans if he decides to exit NATO. Western Europe meanwhile, as is apparent from the approach of Brussels based EU and NATO, still harbours the unfulfilled dreams of Russian conquest someday. And for that, they can not only support Zelenskyy, kill a million more Ukrainians but also invite a Russian Armageddon onto the rest of Europe. What would be most interesting to witness is how many of NATO members would be keen to remain with NATO if the US exits.
In all likelihood the red line that divided Europe during Cold War is about to return, with most countries of erstwhile Warsaw Pact, might prefer to quit NATO and have some peace agreement of neutrality with Russia, rather than banking on dilapidated French, German or Belgian Army, as part of NATO sans the US, coming to their rescue. It defies logic as to why would a Western Europe with an overwhelming dependence on Russia for energy would still want to be at war with Russia even when on their own none can take on Russia. The clueless smile on the face of Keir Starmer when Trump asked him if the UK could take on Russia on its own, shows the hard reality of Europe. But old dreams die hard.
