Post the collapse of the Sheikh Hasina government in Bangladesh, the ISI appeared to be cruising. Its old plan of taking complete control over Bangladesh which it had lost in the Liberation War was taking good shape, especially with a puppet like Muhammad Yunus at the helm.
However, the ISI’s plans may come to a halt soon as agencies, both in the United States as well as India are working closely to ensure that regional stability is not disturbed.
Donald Trump and Modi factor
During the bilateral between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump earlier this month, issues relating to terrorism had cropped up. During the joint briefing the two leaders reiterated their commitment towards fighting terrorism.
Trump if one can recall was extremely supportive of India when it came to the war on terror. When Article 370 was abrogated, he maintained that it was India’s internal matter. Unlike the earlier presidents, he respected India’s stance on Jammu and Kashmir. His only comment was that he was ready to help in any negotiation if India needed it.
The ISI did initially get its way in Bangladesh. It used the Islam factor and also got Yunus on their side to further their plans. However, this may not continue for long since both the US and India are closely monitoring the situation. Both nations have committed that they would do everything in their capacity to ensure that regional stability is not disturbed. Moreover both countries know that any major investment by Pakistan in Bangladesh will eventually end up helping China. This is something that both India and the US would not want.
The ISI would also be mindful of Trump’s first term and his handling of radical Islam. When Trump ordered the killing of Islamic State chief, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, his exact words were, ‘he died like a dog.’ However Trump’s biggest accomplishment was taking down of Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s most powerful General. Trump was briefed that the Iranian general was nurturing radical elements who would hurt US interests.
In addition to working along with the US, India on its own has opened up several back channels to engage with Bangladesh. The idea is to ensure that elections are held soon in Bangladesh. Further maintaining peace along the border is also a major priority for India. An official tells Organiser that the infiltrations have gone down drastically as the vigil by the Border Security Force has been enhanced to very high levels after the violence broke out in Bangladesh.
The USAID problem
The freezing of USAID has also added to Pakistan’s woes. It is a well known fact that Pakistan is cash strapped. Adding to its headache is the huge debt trap it is in courtesy of China.
After Trump took over one of the major decisions that he took was freeze UAID across the world. This list included Pakistan and this decision has hit it hard. He freezing of USAID for Pakistan instantly stopped a number of important projects. This includes the Ambassadors Fund for Cultural Preservation, which is a programme to promote cultural heritage preservation.
Further, USAID was also used to protect historic buildings, archeological sites, museum collections and traditional cultural expressions like indigenous languages and crafts around the world.
Five projects relating to energy have been halted due to the freeze. They are Power Sector Improvement Activity, Pakistan Private Sector Energy Activity, Energy Sector Advisory Services Project, Clean Energy Loan Portfolio Guarantee Program and Pakistan Climate Financing Activity. Four projects relating to economic growth too have been hit.
While these may appear to be projects aimed at helping Pakistan, it is a well known fact that the country is famous for diverting funds. Even when it was placed under the Grey List by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), Pakistan was accused of diverting funds for terror.
The stalling of USAID comes as a major blow to Pakistan as the economically challenged country was in need of the money. Many analysts feel that this fund crunch may make Pakistan slow down on its plans in Bangladesh as well as Afghanistan.
Experts feel that Pakistan may soon revaluate its plans in Bangladesh. With the world order now changed and Trump speaking about ending as many wars as possible apart from fighting radicalisation and terrorism, the ISI and Bangladesh will soon be on his agenda. This the ISI is mindful of and hence its Project Bangladesh may slow down considerably.
